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BEST Defenses - week 4 - SEE WW FORUM!

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Postby HB » Tue Sep 27, 2005 11:51 pm

I've got CIN and WAS D/ST, would you drop one if you had to, or keep them both.
I need to keep McMichael on a BYE week...
Here's the post I made on the other forum:


I've got RMcMichael on BYE this week, who do I drop?

Culpepper
PHolmes
MAnderson
JHorn
KMcardell
DMason
RMcMichael
NRackers
CIN D/ST

Bench:
JPlummer QB
TDilfer QB
RDroughns RB
BEdwards WR
ARandal EL WR
Redskins D/ST
It's a long way to the top if you wanna Rock-n-Roll
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Postby Warhawk » Wed Sep 28, 2005 12:04 am

I got smart enough to draft the Indy D, I've feelin gooood right about now. ;-D

Well, like you didn't see it coming, considering they were third in the league in sacks and turnover last year...
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Postby Rockingout » Wed Sep 28, 2005 7:02 am

is this up yet? The point of view is still on seven keys to sucess in ffl?
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Postby Plindsey88 » Wed Sep 28, 2005 7:17 am

BeefSandwiches wrote:Thanks for the hard work!

Maybe I should post a thread consisting of the D/ST from list I chose...as a warning for everyone out there.

Last year I used the rankings with flawless perfection, but so far this year I have selected:

Week 1 - STL - 28 pts allowed, 2 TOs, 2 sacks
Week 2 - DET - 31 pts allowed, 0 TOs, 2 sacks
Week 3 - DAL - 24 pts allowed, 3 TOs, 2 sacks

I'll wait to see the list and let you know which one I am picking for this week!

;-7 ;-7 ;-7



The formula is inherently inaccurate in the very early weeks of the season... This is precisely the reason I was not going to publish the results until week 4, but I got bombarded with PM's and IM's from people requesting that I publish the list, anyway, in weeks 2 and 3.... So, I published them with a big disclaimer that said, because of the limited data available, these rankings were inherently questionable.... HOWEVER, now that I have a larger amount of data to work with, the rankings should be starting to come together....

Additionally, I have added a strength of schedule component to the formula to help take into account the strength of the offenses the various defenses have already played.... This should keep teams like St. Louis, who have yet to face a strong offense (SF, ARI, TEN) from having their numbers skewed upwards, and teams like Denver, who have faced nothing but strong offenses (MIA, SD, KC) from having their numbers skewed downwards..... I have also placed a modifier into the formula to account for which teams are playing at home, and which are playing in hostile stadiums... Essentially, the home team gets a bonus.... This should also help to make the results a little more accurate.... But, more than anything the natural statistical accuracy of the rankings will strengthen as weeks pass, and I have more data to plug into the formula.... It's like making any statistical prediction, the more trials you have, the closer and closer the actual results will come to the predicted results....
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Postby Plindsey88 » Wed Sep 28, 2005 7:20 am

Rockingout wrote:is this up yet? The point of view is still on seven keys to sucess in ffl?


Will most likely be up today, and I will post a discussion thread with actual formula results shortly thereafter in the Waiver Wire forum....
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Postby BeefSandwiches » Wed Sep 28, 2005 7:31 am

Plindsey88 wrote:
BeefSandwiches wrote:Thanks for the hard work!

Maybe I should post a thread consisting of the D/ST from list I chose...as a warning for everyone out there.

Last year I used the rankings with flawless perfection, but so far this year I have selected:

Week 1 - STL - 28 pts allowed, 2 TOs, 2 sacks
Week 2 - DET - 31 pts allowed, 0 TOs, 2 sacks
Week 3 - DAL - 24 pts allowed, 3 TOs, 2 sacks

I'll wait to see the list and let you know which one I am picking for this week!

;-7 ;-7 ;-7



The formula is inherently inaccurate in the very early weeks of the season... This is precisely the reason I was not going to publish the results until week 4, but I got bombarded with PM's and IM's from people requesting that I publish the list, anyway, in weeks 2 and 3.... So, I published them with a big disclaimer that said, because of the limited data available, these rankings were inherently questionable.... HOWEVER, now that I have a larger amount of data to work with, the rankings should be starting to come together....

Additionally, I have added a strength of schedule component to the formula to help take into account the strength of the offenses the various defenses have already played.... This should keep teams like St. Louis, who have yet to face a strong offense (SF, ARI, TEN) from having their numbers skewed upwards, and teams like Denver, who have faced nothing but strong offenses (MIA, SD, KC) from having their numbers skewed downwards..... I have also placed a modifier into the formula to account for which teams are playing at home, and which are playing in hostile stadiums... Essentially, the home team gets a bonus.... This should also help to make the results a little more accurate.... But, more than anything the natural statistical accuracy of the rankings will strengthen as weeks pass, and I have more data to plug into the formula.... It's like making any statistical prediction, the more trials you have, the closer and closer the actual results will come to the predicted results....


I was just joking, Plinds - I read all the disclaimers and I trust the rankings. Sometimes it just comes down to luck...Chicago hasn't put up that many points in YEARS!! The last time they came close to 38 was Week 7 of 2001 when they scored 37 against the 49ers. It was the most points they scored since they racked up 47 in Week 4 of 1993!!!! What are the chances...

Thanks again for the hard work.
"I'm normally not a praying man, but if you're up there, please save me Superman."
- Homer J. Simpson
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Postby Rockingout » Wed Sep 28, 2005 7:38 am

Plindsey88 wrote:
Rockingout wrote:is this up yet? The point of view is still on seven keys to sucess in ffl?


Will most likely be up today, and I will post a discussion thread with actual formula results shortly thereafter in the Waiver Wire forum....


Thanks Plindsey!!! ;-D Hope SF is up there cause I pulled the trigger on them.
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Postby cruiz03 » Wed Sep 28, 2005 11:38 am

Look forward to checking it out again!!
Keeper Roster:
QB: B. Rothlesburgh, C. Palmer
RB: S. Alexander, L. Johnson,
WR: T. Holt, Burress, M. Clayton, B. Edwards
TE: T. Heap
DT: Steelers

** Superbowl Champion AFFL 2003 & 2005**
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Postby deadlyshaolin » Wed Sep 28, 2005 12:18 pm

Thanks Plindsey, appreciate the effort!

But where is it?
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Postby Plindsey88 » Wed Sep 28, 2005 12:50 pm

deadlyshaolin wrote:Thanks Plindsey, appreciate the effort!

But where is it?



It has been submitted to management.... I assume it will be posted as soon as they can get to it....
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