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How good can FWP with all the horses in the stable?

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How good can FWP with all the horses in the stable?

Postby bd0493 » Wed Sep 28, 2005 4:06 pm

Fanball reported that Duce Staley said that next week all the horses will be in the stable, and he wants to see more time.

But, my point is, with Verron Haynes, Duce Staley, and Jerome Bettis all competing for carries- how is Willie gonna put up points?

Best case scenario he'll get 20-25 carries a game- but he won't get many in the red zone, therefore the TDs are gonna have to come from outside the 8 yd line or so.

Not only that, but he won't get looks on 3rd downs so his reception total will be low.

At best, it looks like Willie will average about 100 yds a week and probably get a TD every other week.

I am a FWP owner, and this really bothers me. The only way I can see him being a top back that many see him as now is if Bettis or Staley goes down, hopefully Bettis.

However, with all the horses in the stable, it looks like FWP is around the 15th best RB in the league. Would it be worth dealing him off for a guy like Domanick Davis or Ronnie Brown?
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Postby moonhead » Wed Sep 28, 2005 4:09 pm

for domanick davis? yes. ronnie brown? no. ricky will be back and have his job week 7 or 8.
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Postby caneblood » Wed Sep 28, 2005 6:10 pm

Yeah I think you were banking too much on Fast Willie. He was barely drafted in most leagues and those that did draft him was with the intention of using him for a week or two until Bettis/Staley come back. He's been great at the role people expected out of him, so good that he actually has some residual value left after the other guys get back. Not that much value but probably enough to be used for specific matchups on bye weeks. He's on bye this week followed by games against 2 tough run D's and then Baltimore in weeks 8 and 11 so outside those games he could be used as filler.

Parker for Domanick Davis? I'm not even sure your commish would let that pass.
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Postby Free Bagel » Wed Sep 28, 2005 7:42 pm

This is all blown way out of proportion.

He'll only get 20-25 carries a game, without goalline touches you say? How can he put up good numbers with that you say?

EASY. He's already done it twice. Week 1 he had 22 carries, Haynes had 11. Week 2 he had 25 carries, Haynes had 7. What's the difference if it's Haynes getting those carries or Staley?

No goalline carries you say? Newsflash, he hasn't had one. Both of his TD's came from 10 yards out or further.

So, we've seen what he can do with 20-25 carries and no goalline touches. 201/1 and 125/1 are what he can do. I'll take that..
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Postby Challie » Wed Sep 28, 2005 9:23 pm

I agree that some Willie expectations need to be tempered a little bit, but today's news item only is that Duce Staley wants to get carries. Whoopie! When Cowher says it, THEN it's a story.
... in my opinion, of course - but that should always go without saying.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Sep 29, 2005 7:40 am

Free Bagel wrote:So, we've seen what he can do with 20-25 carries and no goalline touches. 201/1 and 125/1 are what he can do. I'll take that..


Just to make sure I understand - are you saying that now is NOT the time to sell high on Parker? Is his value going to get any higher?

Torching TEN and HOU is a good enough sample size for you to feel confident he will continue those kind of performances when the original starting RBs return and PIT faces much tougher competition?

I just want to make sure thats your stance.

Because obviously I say he's completely hyped and you should have traded him after week 2 - especially when we did that little improptu poll about who the top 10 fantasy backs are for the rest of the season and people literally were placing him in their top 5 and over half had HWP in their top 10.

Getting DD for Parker would be much easier than you may think - at least last week it would have been - his value is already starting to drop as people come to their senses, so Im not sure if it would be accepted at this point.
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Postby Free Bagel » Thu Sep 29, 2005 4:11 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:So, we've seen what he can do with 20-25 carries and no goalline touches. 201/1 and 125/1 are what he can do. I'll take that..


Just to make sure I understand - are you saying that now is NOT the time to sell high on Parker? Is his value going to get any higher?

Torching TEN and HOU is a good enough sample size for you to feel confident he will continue those kind of performances when the original starting RBs return and PIT faces much tougher competition?

I just want to make sure thats your stance.


My only point here was that it's completely ridiculous how often people keep saying he will NOW start losing goalline and 3rd down carries, when all his value was built up for the 3 weeks without him having any goalline or 3rd down carries to start with. He's NEVER had those carries, yet his value is what it is. So saying he'll lose 3rd down and goalline carries that he's never gotten is utterly ridiculous.

It's like Peyton Manning spraining his ankle and me saying "well now he's going to lose all those rushing opportunities." His value was built without running, and he never did it, so he can't lose it. Likewise, FWP's value was built without 3rd down/goalline carries, and he never had them, so he can't LOSE something he never had in the first place.

If you want to say that he put up the numbers that he did because he played soft defenses, fine, that's a totally different arguement than the one I was touching on. My point is that if you go back to those two games against soft defenses with Staley and Bettis, Staley takes all the 3rd down plays that Haynes already had, and Bettis takes all the goalline TD's (0), you still get the same numbers.
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Postby RubeRiot » Thu Sep 29, 2005 4:44 pm

I'm in a little different situation because I'm in a keeper league...so as much as I'm hoping for production out of him this year, I'm really hoping he turns out to be the real deal next year when Bettis probably will retire, and Staley will be a true back-up if still on the team.

With that said, I'm still a little worried about him being over hyped. I don't need him to be a top 5 fantasy back...but top 10 would be nice! :-)
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