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Postby AT » Thu Sep 29, 2005 1:12 pm

I cost myself in Week 1 by actually asking this question. I was planning on using the cancel-out theory (Just by thinking it was a good idea, not knowing it was an oft-used strategy) by starting Keenan McCardell to offset Drew Brees given Antonio Gates was out. Of course I was convinced by non-believers that it was a bad idea and I benched Keenan when he put up the best fantasy week of his life and I got beat by not starting him.
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Postby bdrotoronto » Thu Sep 29, 2005 1:46 pm

I have personally been a fan of the cancel-out theory with respect to good QB's and WR's, but I think it can also extend a little bit to other scenarios where certain players will 'steal' points or opportunities from other players.

For instance, in my matchup this week, I have Westbrook and the other guy (defending champ) has TO, so it is unlikely either guy can explode without the other guy doing well. Similarly, the other guy has Portis, I have countered with S.Moss at my WR2, ahead of McCardell (who doesn't have a great matchup anyway). He was mad and countered this by picking up the Jets D to off-set my Ravens D, on the idea if it's a defensive game the Jets should do well too, partly b/c of my D's performance. In addition, the other guy is doing a lot of 'doubling up', he just picked up Givens for this week to go with his Brady and D.Graham. I don't know if any of this means anything, but I think this week is the most over-strategized matchup I've ever been a part of.. :-?
Last edited by bdrotoronto on Thu Sep 29, 2005 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby BrutallyHuge » Thu Sep 29, 2005 1:48 pm

bdrotoronto wrote:IIn addition, the other guy is doing a lot of 'doubling up', he just picked up Givens for this week to go with his Brady and D.Graham.


Someone starts Daniel Graham and Givens?

Yikes.
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Postby Gnu314 » Thu Sep 29, 2005 2:50 pm

I only do this when I know that it will pay off. Late in the season this becomes a pretty good idea, like last year for instance I started Volek against my opponent with Bennett when they were on their tear. It worked out great and I ended up winning.

A lot of the time though you don't know for sure that one QB will be throwing to one player so doing the opposite (starting a WR against a QB) isn't nearly as smart.
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Postby skibrett15 » Thu Sep 29, 2005 3:21 pm

don't ever worry about the competition. I always start who I think will have the best weeks. Its not "safer" in any way to start that wr, it's just a wasted opportunity to outscore your opponent. If you are canceling out, you aren't getting ahead.
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Postby mikus » Thu Sep 29, 2005 3:56 pm

skibrett15 wrote:If you are canceling out, you aren't getting ahead.


Amen. I read this whole thread, and this by far is the most profound statement of the lot.
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Postby Always a winner » Thu Sep 29, 2005 4:09 pm

Doug Drinen looked into this and other similar scenarios from a statistical viewpoint.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/a ... rrgaus.htm

He says theoretically:
Doug Drinen wrote:The Anti-hookup (choosing a WR and/or TE from the same NFL team as you opponent's QB) is a wise strategy for favorites and a poor strategy for underdogs...

But in practice:
Doug Drinen wrote:I'm going to have to call this inconclusive. I just don't know how to do away with all the biases that polluted the study of the anti-hookup. All we have here is the theoretical knowledge.
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Postby FatFoot » Thu Sep 29, 2005 5:54 pm

People sometimes make the mistake of thinking about "starting a QB and WR on the same team" or starting your best defense against your best QB. Nothing you do, whatsoever, will change the numbers that are put up in the games. What you need to do is simply look for your best advantages in matchups. If it means you have 2 QBs, 2 RBs, a TE, Kicker and Defense all in the same game, it doesn't matter... if those are your best matchups, you do it, because it doesn't matter if you've got your WR on one team, QB on another, and whatever... they're going to put up the points they're going to put up, whether you start them or sit them.
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Postby Wesley Walker » Thu Sep 29, 2005 8:52 pm

Flux wrote:play your best options no matter what....period.

Dont worry about the other guys team, just field your best


I think it's too simplistic to say "never do this cancel-out strategy -- always play your best guy." The whole point is that it's often very difficult to tell who the best guy is. This strategy, I think, is a decent way to pick the best player to start.

Plindsey88 wrote:Depends on the situation...

For example, if you are deciding between two studs that are really close in your rankings, one who happens to be the #1 target of the oppositions QB, then I would start that guy....

But, never bench a stud just so you can start the #1 target of the opposing QB....

FOR EXAMPLE:

If you are deciding between Steve Smith and Torry Holt, and the opposing QB is Jake Delhomme, then I would start Smith....

HOWEVER, if you are deciding between Steve Smith and Reggie Wayne, and the opposing QB is Peyton Manning, I would still opt to start Smith, because he is the bigger stud.....


Exactly. I agree totally.

skibrett15 wrote:don't ever worry about the competition. I always start who I think will have the best weeks. Its not "safer" in any way to start that wr, it's just a wasted opportunity to outscore your opponent. If you are canceling out, you aren't getting ahead.


Again, you assume we can always differentiate between two players based on merit alone. That's easy if you're picking between Chad Johnson and Wayne Chrbet.

But let's say we've got Torry Holt and Chad Johnson to chose between, and both play at home against weak pass defenses. And let's say your fantasy opponent is starting Bulger.

By starting Johnson, you benefit by the fact that he normally gives a solid fantasy performance. But you'd get that same benefit by starting Holt, who is also normally a strong fantasy start. Of course Johnson could blow up, for 200 yards and 4 TDs. But, again, so could Holt.

The difference is that if Holt does this, and you start Johnson, you're screwed because your opponent has Bulger and will get all those fantasy points.

In the end, if you're picking between two virtually equal players, your chances of picking the right one are about 50/50. But you can cover yourself against a huge day by your opponents QB by choosing his favorite target. It's coverage. It's piece of mind.

When two players' likely fantasy performance is so closely linked, as with Bulger/Holt or Moss/Collins, then by playing a cancel-out strategy, you're difffering the fantasy macthup to the remaining players in your (and your opposent's) lineup.

This isn't a sure-fire strategy for winning, it's merely a safe play.
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Postby Opinion Ape » Thu Sep 29, 2005 9:38 pm

The_Dude wrote:
BrutallyHuge wrote:
The strategy only works for big time hookups...and even then, you should start the WR anyway (Chad&Carson, Terrell&Donovan, Jake&Steve, Kerry&Randy, Marc&Torry, Trent&Frisman).


You forgot Ratty&Lloyd, Losman&Evans and Frerotte&Chambers


Also, Flutie and Gerard Phelan
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