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Cancel out theory...

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Postby Flux » Thu Sep 29, 2005 10:07 pm

The difference is that if Holt does this, and you start Johnson, you're screwed because your opponent has Bulger and will get all those fantasy points.


um....what about if CJ has a huge day and Holt does nothing? What if Bulger blows up and no TDs go to Holt? There are way too many variables here.

In the end, if you're picking between two virtually equal players, your chances of picking the right one are about 50/50. But you can cover yourself against a huge day by your opponents QB by choosing his favorite target. It's coverage. It's piece of mind.


Heres my thinking. In order to win every week you basically do have to get lucky. You have to have your players play well and your opponents not play like superstars. Sure a great draft makes it more likely that you do well, but still luck is involved.

And realistically, are you ever going to be choosing between Holt and CJ? That means that you have a Moss or TO already on your team and 3 of the top 5 or so WRs.

If you do play Holt against a Bulger simply to "cancel out" every point Holt scores is also negated by what Bulger does. So he is also cancelling you out. But heres the kicker....Bulger can throw TDs and yds to OTHER PLAYERS. So in the end, you really arent cancelling anybody out, b/c he has many more options outside of Holt (the only exception would be S. Smith as Delhomme only has eyes for him...but hes a must play every week now anyway).

So you could play Holt and try and negate Bulger, but its doubtful you completely "cancel him out" anyway, and it is also possible that all his TDs could go to other players.

Im from the "All or Nothing" approach I guess. If I had to choose between the two, I would go w/ the the WR who is not on the same team as my opponents QB. B/c I dont thinking Im actually hedging much of a bet, and how can you root for a guy, who if he catches a TD is also giving your opponent points?
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Postby Always a winner » Thu Sep 29, 2005 10:32 pm

Wesley Walker wrote:The difference is that if Holt does this, and you start Johnson, you're screwed because your opponent has Bulger and will get all those fantasy points.

In the end, if you're picking between two virtually equal players, your chances of picking the right one are about 50/50. But you can cover yourself against a huge day by your opponents QB by choosing his favorite target. It's coverage. It's piece of mind....

This isn't a sure-fire strategy for winning, it's merely a safe play.

This is exactly what Drinen said in the long article I linked to above. If you play the "anti-hookup" (starting Holt when your opponent starts Bulger) you are covering yourself against Bulger, but also covering him against Holt. If your team is better than his, then you want to play it safe like this.

However, if your fantasy team is the underdog, then you need to bank on your CJ having a good day and Bulger not having a good day if you want to win. You have to exploit that difference by starting CJ and not negate it by starting Holt. In this case you need to use the anti-hookup.
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