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Is Gruden going to run his Caddy till hes empty?

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Postby MadScott » Fri Sep 30, 2005 8:19 am

I don't know if it's exactly fair to say that his production is going to drop off if the Bucs get behind. Truth be told, we don't know how Gruden will use him if they are behind. He's clearly the most talented RB there and Gruden loves to feature him. Perhaps he becomes more involved with touches via the screen, etc... Until they get behind though, we aren't going to know what his production will be without a lead.
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Postby Daddymike59 » Fri Sep 30, 2005 8:29 am

The Caddy sat out of Wednesday's practice. This should not be a surprising move as Williams is getting nearly 30 carries per week. Expect him to sit Wednesdays out for the rest of the year in an attempt to keep him fresh. Here's an idea... how about not running him 37 times a game?? Williams should be fine this weekend. I only hope he stays that way the rest of the year.
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Postby Free Bagel » Fri Sep 30, 2005 10:57 am

TheOneManShow 26 wrote:I agree with Free Bagel. Cadillac will not only wear down, but his production will drop. Lets see what Caddilac did the 1st 3 weeks:

Week 1 .vs. Minnesota Vikings
27 carries 147 yards 5.44 ypc
On carries 1-24 67 yards 2.79 ypc
On carries 25-27 80 yards 26.6 ypc

He obviously got the BULK of his yards on his last drive carry.

Week 2 .vs. Buffalo Bills
24 carries 128 yards 5.33 ypc
On carries 1-20 95 yards 4.75 ypc
On carries 21-24 33 yards 8.25 ypc

Once again it comes on his last drive.

Week 3 .vs. Green Bay Packers
37 carries 158 yards 4.27 ypc
On carries 1-30 114 yards 3.8 ypc
On carries 31-37 44 yards 6.29 ypc

On his last drive.

So in 74 carries during the course of a game he has ran for 276 yards. That is a 3.73 ypc.

On his last drive of every game he has carried it 14 times for 157 yards. That is a 11.21 ypc.


Bingo.

Awesome stats ;-D
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Postby Santana » Fri Sep 30, 2005 11:01 am

It does seem like he has the potential to wear down. They're going to have to figure out a way to moderate his carries a bit, but as long as he is succesful they have to keep feeding him.
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Postby RyanTB » Fri Sep 30, 2005 11:14 am

This on course for 400+ carries a year is a bunch of BS. The only reason the stats look that way is because

1.) Its' only week 3

2.) He just had a 37 carry game against GB.

In the first two games he had 27 and 24 carries which is what you should expect to see for the rest of the season. Somewhere around 25 carries. Edge had 369 carries in his rookie year, LT had 339 carries, Curtis Martin had 368, and right now Eric Dickerson holds the record for 390 rushing attempts, rookie season. Why not C Williams? Why can't he break the record? He already has the most rushing yds of any rookie RB in the first three games.

Also, for those of you who say his stats are only good because the Bucs are in the lead all the time. Most backs do better when their team is winning, that's not to difficult to figure out. When you are behind, generally you'll be passing, not rushing.
Last edited by RyanTB on Fri Sep 30, 2005 11:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Where's Ryan Leaf? » Fri Sep 30, 2005 11:14 am

He "wore down" Buffalo in 24 carries. Probably should have been even less. And why are you so quick to say "what if he doesn't get those last 8 carries?" Why does it have to be the last carries? Thats flawed logic.


Exactly. What if he only gets those last 8 carries, then his avg is 27 and he's the second coming of Walter Payton.

The fact that he is in the game and cn carry 37 times is impressive. The fact that by the end of the game after carrying the ball 30+ times, he is better than every defender on the field is even more impressive. You can not just eliminate part of a game.

Additionally, if he only gets stronger by the end of games, maybe he will only get stronger by the end of the season.
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Postby Teh Jury » Fri Sep 30, 2005 11:57 am

Where's Ryan Leaf? wrote:
He "wore down" Buffalo in 24 carries. Probably should have been even less. And why are you so quick to say "what if he doesn't get those last 8 carries?" Why does it have to be the last carries? Thats flawed logic.


Exactly. What if he only gets those last 8 carries, then his avg is 27 and he's the second coming of Walter Payton.

The fact that he is in the game and cn carry 37 times is impressive. The fact that by the end of the game after carrying the ball 30+ times, he is better than every defender on the field is even more impressive. You can not just eliminate part of a game.

Additionally, if he only gets stronger by the end of games, maybe he will only get stronger by the end of the season.


It's probably not so much that he gets stronger than that the defences get weaker faster than he does.

Regarding the entirety of your post, he may be doing it now, but it is unlikely that he'll be wrecking defences after 400 carries later in the season...
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Postby maddog60 » Fri Sep 30, 2005 12:19 pm

RyanTB wrote:This on course for 400+ carries a year is a bunch of BS. The only reason the stats look that way is because

1.) Its' only week 3

2.) He just had a 37 carry game against GB.


You're dead wrong. Exclude his 37 carry game, and average his 27 and 24 carry games to 51 carries in 2 games, that's a pace for 408 carries itself. If you include his 37 carry game, his average is on a pace for 469 carries. Its not hard to predict that such a pace would obliterate a rookie RB, heck, any RB.

In the first two games he had 27 and 24 carries which is what you should expect to see for the rest of the season. Somewhere around 25 carries.


So, basically after calling the 400 carry pace BS you then go on to tell us you expect him to get 400 carries in the season. Either that or you didn't bother to do the math and are spouting off numbers without knowing what they mean. 25*16 = 400.
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Postby Kensat30 » Fri Sep 30, 2005 1:02 pm

Projecting carries for the season after 3 games? Wow...

Right now he is projecting out to 470 carries. If Caddy has one bad week with 14 carries (loss, minor injury, etc) he is now projecting for 408 carries. A few games with 18-20 carries? You can project him to 350 on the season. Of course you are going to get a ridiculously high projected number after he carried the ball 37 times in the third week of the season, it's not rocket science.

Considering how Caddy is not very heavily involved in the passing game at all... that is the exact range of touches you would expect out of a workhorse RB. 350-400 touches can almost be expected of this guy, while he could see upwards of 400 carries.

Seriously, I'm not really seeing a recent example outside of Edgerrin James/Ladanian Tomlinson to compare this guy to in his rookie year. Edge touched the ball 431 times his rookie year. Tomlinson? 398 touches. Is it inconceivable that Caddy makes a run at 1600, 1800, 2000 rushing his rookie year?? Edge had 1550, but he saw a huge portion of his totals come from receptions. By the looks of things, Caddy's totals will come almost exclusively in the running game...

---

Look at his first two games and realize that the third game is an outlier. Rarely will a team not based in Pittsburgh even get the CHANCE to run the ball 40+ times in a game. Caddy is just as likely to have a game, or multiple games, with 15 or less carries this year compared to having another game with 30+ carries.

A few low carry games would bring his average back in line with the 22-25 a game where you would expect him to be. 22-25 touches a game comes out to 350-400 touches on the year.
-----

Rudi Johnson, a non-receiving RB, ran the ball 360+ times last year. Jamal Lewis ran 390 times in 2003. Ricky Williams had almost 400 carries in back to back years in 2002 and 2003. Edgerrin James rushed the ball 370 times and caught 60 passes in his first year. Tomlinson touches the ball 400+ times every year. Curtis Martin has rushed more than 360 times SEVERAL times in his career.

Nothing is out of the ordinary with what Caddy is doing right now. He is simply entering stud, workhorse RB territory. Once he has that single poor game, or a string of games with sub-20 carries, people will say that's the real Caddy. But it's his rookie year, he's already broken records, who knows how good this guy is going to be. I watch him play.. he has the looks of a very special player.
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Postby skibrett15 » Fri Sep 30, 2005 1:11 pm

Those were some good stats, but i think Caddy will lose carries, but still produce. Here is my logic. Gruden will lower his carries throughout the game. He will still be playing in the 4th quarter when defenses are tired and he apparently is not. Defenses don't get tired from Cadillac carrying the ball. So if Caddy carries it 15 times going into the 4th, and alstott carries it 3, and pittman 5. Thats 23 rushing plays going into the 4th. The number of plays will wear them out. Now the defense is tired, the bucs are ahead, and gruden puts in carnell to finish the game off. Cadillac will still bust those big runs because even tho he's had less carries he's still playing in the 4th quarter against an equally tired defense.
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