Is Gruden going to run his Caddy till hes empty? - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


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Is Gruden going to run his Caddy till hes empty?

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Postby GreatestShowOnEarth » Fri Sep 30, 2005 2:35 pm

People seem to be making the arguement that if you take out his last carries his average drops. This is true but why in the heck would you take out his last carries? That is what he does best. That would be like taking away Westbrook's recieving yards. You dont just single something out in a players game and say "if it wasnt for this they would be average" you just cant do that period. I dont care what stats you throw out, it changes nothing. Cadillac is in the best shape of his life and it makes since that he gets more yards as the game goes on.
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Postby sappisgod » Fri Sep 30, 2005 3:10 pm

skibrett15 wrote:Those were some good stats, but i think Caddy will lose carries, but still produce. Here is my logic. Gruden will lower his carries throughout the game. He will still be playing in the 4th quarter when defenses are tired and he apparently is not. Defenses don't get tired from Cadillac carrying the ball. So if Caddy carries it 15 times going into the 4th, and alstott carries it 3, and pittman 5. Thats 23 rushing plays going into the 4th. The number of plays will wear them out. Now the defense is tired, the bucs are ahead, and gruden puts in carnell to finish the game off. Cadillac will still bust those big runs because even tho he's had less carries he's still playing in the 4th quarter against an equally tired defense.


I touched on the same thing last page. I don't understand why people are so quick to just chop off those last carries. Because not only would you want your best offensive player out there in crunch time, but even moreso when he's shown how effective he can be in the 4th quarter.

So why wouldn't his carries in the middle of the game get cut into? You know, those same carries that people are complaining about because they aren't as productive as his carries late in the game? Where exactly is the logic in that?
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Postby MrHokeyPokey » Fri Sep 30, 2005 3:46 pm

Wow, i didn't think this would generate as many replies at it has.

Anways, I decided to offer caddy and j. smith for westbrook and holt. I doubt the guy will bite, but if he doesn't i'm sure he'll counter.

I also try caddy and s. parker, for mcgahee and s. smith. If I don't get any of these, I'll be like gruden and ride caddy till the end.
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Postby josebach » Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:06 pm

MrHokeyPokey wrote:Wow, i didn't think this would generate as many replies at it has.

Anways, I decided to offer caddy and j. smith for westbrook and holt. I doubt the guy will bite, but if he doesn't i'm sure he'll counter.

I also try caddy and s. parker, for mcgahee and s. smith. If I don't get any of these, I'll be like gruden and ride caddy till the end.


Damn, man. Shooting for the moon, aren't ya?

At this point of the season, Caddy MIGHT be an even trade for Westbrook, and Caddy MIGHT be an even trade for McGahee, but your wide receiver trades are flat out insulting. Be prepared!!!
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Postby MrHokeyPokey » Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:12 pm

josebach wrote:
MrHokeyPokey wrote:Wow, i didn't think this would generate as many replies at it has.

Anways, I decided to offer caddy and j. smith for westbrook and holt. I doubt the guy will bite, but if he doesn't i'm sure he'll counter.

I also try caddy and s. parker, for mcgahee and s. smith. If I don't get any of these, I'll be like gruden and ride caddy till the end.


Damn, man. Shooting for the moon, aren't ya?

At this point of the season, Caddy MIGHT be an even trade for Westbrook, and Caddy MIGHT be an even trade for McGahee, but your wide receiver trades are flat out insulting. Be prepared!!!


Both of these teams are in the bottom 5 of a 16 man league, and i'm number 1 right now. I just hope they bite, or counter. Also, I think I can shoot for the moon because i'm currently 1st place, and the 0-3 teams seem to be scrambling.
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Postby J2thez929 » Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:59 pm

Please don't turn this great debate/discussion into trade questions, Hokey...

I'm on the fence for this debate. I don't see Caddy keepin up his current pace but that doesn't mean he is gonna fall flat on his face. I think he'll actually learn to run smarter and be more effective with his carries as he matures and the season progresses.
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Postby maddog60 » Fri Sep 30, 2005 5:04 pm

I could care less about when he's gotten his rushing yards, but I don't see how the Bucs do not lessen his load, or he breaks down. Either way, his value will go down, because right now, you could probably get most any RB for him. I'm not sold that he's going to fall flat on his face, but his numbers will dimish either through exhaustion or lessened average carries, and that's why I'm a huge advocate of selling him high in redraft leagues only right now.
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Postby Kensat30 » Fri Sep 30, 2005 6:41 pm

maddog60 wrote:I could care less about when he's gotten his rushing yards, but I don't see how the Bucs do not lessen his load, or he breaks down. Either way, his value will go down, because right now, you could probably get most any RB for him. I'm not sold that he's going to fall flat on his face, but his numbers will dimish either through exhaustion or lessened average carries, and that's why I'm a huge advocate of selling him high in redraft leagues only right now.


I disagree here. We're only 3 weeks into the season, and draft position and "stud name effect" is still in place. Caddy is a top10 fantasy RB right now... who was a 3rd round pick at the earliest in most drafts. Caddy will probably get you an underperforming RB that was drafted in the 1st or 2nd round, but that's about it..
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Postby Kilroy » Sat Oct 01, 2005 4:27 am

Kensat30 wrote:Projecting carries for the season after 3 games? Wow...

Right now he is projecting out to 470 carries. If Caddy has one bad week with 14 carries (loss, minor injury, etc) he is now projecting for 408 carries. A few games with 18-20 carries? You can project him to 350 on the season. Of course you are going to get a ridiculously high projected number after he carried the ball 37 times in the third week of the season, it's not rocket science.

Considering how Caddy is not very heavily involved in the passing game at all... that is the exact range of touches you would expect out of a workhorse RB. 350-400 touches can almost be expected of this guy, while he could see upwards of 400 carries.

Seriously, I'm not really seeing a recent example outside of Edgerrin James/Ladanian Tomlinson to compare this guy to in his rookie year. Edge touched the ball 431 times his rookie year. Tomlinson? 398 touches. Is it inconceivable that Caddy makes a run at 1600, 1800, 2000 rushing his rookie year?? Edge had 1550, but he saw a huge portion of his totals come from receptions. By the looks of things, Caddy's totals will come almost exclusively in the running game...

---

Look at his first two games and realize that the third game is an outlier. Rarely will a team not based in Pittsburgh even get the CHANCE to run the ball 40+ times in a game. Caddy is just as likely to have a game, or multiple games, with 15 or less carries this year compared to having another game with 30+ carries.

A few low carry games would bring his average back in line with the 22-25 a game where you would expect him to be. 22-25 touches a game comes out to 350-400 touches on the year.
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Rudi Johnson, a non-receiving RB, ran the ball 360+ times last year. Jamal Lewis ran 390 times in 2003. Ricky Williams had almost 400 carries in back to back years in 2002 and 2003. Edgerrin James rushed the ball 370 times and caught 60 passes in his first year. Tomlinson touches the ball 400+ times every year. Curtis Martin has rushed more than 360 times SEVERAL times in his career.

Nothing is out of the ordinary with what Caddy is doing right now. He is simply entering stud, workhorse RB territory. Once he has that single poor game, or a string of games with sub-20 carries, people will say that's the real Caddy. But it's his rookie year, he's already broken records, who knows how good this guy is going to be. I watch him play.. he has the looks of a very special player.


Can't add much to this...Kensat nailed it.

And as far as the "Big Yardage" Carries at the end of the game...70 of LT2's yards came on one carry last week against the Giants. Do they count? It's what feature backs are SUPPOSED to do in a running offense...wear 'em down, then knock 'em out. Why is it that people think Fast Willie is the second coming, but in the same breath will say that Caddy is doomed to "wear down"? Caddy won't carry the ball 450 times this year. (I think....with him we're kinda in uncharted territory since the last player to rush for this many yards in his first 3 games was, well, nobody.)

Caddy's a special back. And the JA comparison is inaccurate. Jamal Anderson's career didn't end because he ran the ball too much...it ended because his knees got torn to h**l playin' on turf 8 times a year.

Will Caddy run for 2,000? Will he "hit the wall"? one way to find out. Wait and see.

I, for one, ain't tradin' him. You just don't trade Stud RBs.
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Postby Teh Jury » Sat Oct 01, 2005 11:12 am

maddog60 wrote:I could care less about when he's gotten his rushing yards, but I don't see how the Bucs do not lessen his load, or he breaks down. Either way, his value will go down, because right now, you could probably get most any RB for him. I'm not sold that he's going to fall flat on his face, but his numbers will dimish either through exhaustion or lessened average carries, and that's why I'm a huge advocate of selling him high in redraft leagues only right now.


But it's things like this that affect the future. There are 2 major views of players and stats in fantasy sports:

a) What has this player done?
b) What will this player do?

In reference to a), Caddy has performed at an exceptional level, no doubt.

But in reference to b), we have to analyze his games to see if these past statistics will continue. Using projections of his current pace, he is highly unlikely to keep up the same workload given other NFL RBs in recent years. So when we drop some of his carries, it doesn't affect his past stats cause he has them already, but it means that he is "less likely" or even "not likely" to continue at the same level of production.
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