Is Gruden going to run his Caddy till hes empty? - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe

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Is Gruden going to run his Caddy till hes empty?

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Postby maddog60 » Sat Oct 01, 2005 11:19 am

Teh Jury wrote:
maddog60 wrote:I could care less about when he's gotten his rushing yards, but I don't see how the Bucs do not lessen his load, or he breaks down. Either way, his value will go down, because right now, you could probably get most any RB for him. I'm not sold that he's going to fall flat on his face, but his numbers will dimish either through exhaustion or lessened average carries, and that's why I'm a huge advocate of selling him high in redraft leagues only right now.

But it's things like this that affect the future. There are 2 major views of players and stats in fantasy sports:

a) What has this player done?
b) What will this player do?

In reference to a), Caddy has performed at an exceptional level, no doubt.

But in reference to b), we have to analyze his games to see if these past statistics will continue. Using projections of his current pace, he is highly unlikely to keep up the same workload given other NFL RBs in recent years. So when we drop some of his carries, it doesn't affect his past stats cause he has them already, but it means that he is "less likely" or even "not likely" to continue at the same level of production.

Yes, but then you get into this whole ongoing argument of which carries would he lose, the last ones, the first ones, the middle ones? In my opinion it is fruitless speculation because if his carries are lessened, he still plays all game, so in all likelihood he'll lose say 2 carries from the beginning, the middle, and the end. But who knows, maybe Gruden would sit him early or late, there's no way of knowing. Rather than use this highly speculative argument I think the simple fact that less carries = less production than we're seeing now is a far better argument.
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Postby Teh Jury » Sat Oct 01, 2005 11:20 am

Just as a final thought, fantasy sports is all about probability. You can have all the first round picks in your fantasy draft, but by picking designated "first round players" it doesn't mean you will win - it simply means that the probability of your guys putting up big numbers is greater.

So as an extension, it doesn't really matter what stats a player has produced in the past or recent past (same season), but rather how the player is perfoming.

For example, in fantasy baseball, if a player is crushing the ball to opposition fielders, his stat line may not be as nice as the player who's been squeaking the ball through holes in the infield, but the probability may easily be greater that he will outproduce the "squeaker" in the "future" because he's hitting at a higher level.

The technicalities may be a bit off but I'm just trying to paint the concept :-b
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Postby ROSSBUD » Sun Oct 02, 2005 9:23 pm

The Caddy might have to be parked for awhile if his hamstring is pulled bad... No new info yet..

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