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Why isn't the VBD theory used after the draft?

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Why isn't the VBD theory used after the draft?

Postby aussieboy » Sat Oct 08, 2005 1:37 pm

I was wondering why people tend to forget about the principles of Value Based Drafting during the season.

For those of you unaware of what VBD is, it basically is a system that takes into account positional scarcity when determing players' values.

I was reading a past Brian Westbrook thread, when I noticed that a few guys said they would pull the trigger on a Randy Moss for Westbrook deal, ie they would give away Westbrook for Moss.

I don't understand this.

Brian Westbrook is currently an elite RB, there is no reason why he won't continue his big production. Is it his injury risk that scares people?

This is not the first time i've noticed people willing to give up very very good RBs for elite WRs like Moss or TO.

Made me think that once the draft is over, a lot of people tend to look at production straight up instead of taking positional scarcity into account.

I was offered Moss for my Westbrook in one of my leagues, and I rejected the offer without thinking.

The ONLY reason i'd consider that deal is if I had a good backup RB and desperately needed a WR.

Is my thinking off?
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Postby s0meguy » Sat Oct 08, 2005 1:58 pm

Westbrook isn't that great and he's certainly not elite. He doesn't get goal line carries or score touchdowns from inside the 10s. That team is all TO and McNabb. I'd trade him for Moss in a second.
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Postby PACKman1144 » Sat Oct 08, 2005 2:12 pm

Trading all depends in your teams situation. If have Holt, Chad Johnson and say Darrel Jackson at wideout (unrealistic), and Brian Westbrook and Caddy at RB with come one like Moore backing them up there's no way I pull the deal for Moss, but if i'm stacked at RB and Westy is riding the bench I'll pull the trigger in a heart beat. It all depends on your teams situation so I'd say it is hard to say whether you should apply that kind of Value to trades.

Trades are all about situations, drafting is just getting the best guy available.
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Postby Azrael » Sat Oct 08, 2005 2:12 pm

I think as long as McNabb is running the show AND Westbrook stays healthy, we should see 15pts a week from him. If he gets close to 20 touches a week he can produce that.
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Postby mystykoekaki » Sat Oct 08, 2005 2:28 pm

Sometimes depends on the scoring, in my league the Elite WRs are sometimes better in production the most RBs and even some Elite RBs as well. Really depends on how the scoring is usually. BTW I would take Moss for Westbrook anyday. Peace!
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Re: Why isn't the VBD theory used after the draft?

Postby Matthias » Sat Oct 08, 2005 2:32 pm

aussieboy wrote:I was offered Moss for my Westbrook in one of my leagues, and I rejected the offer without thinking.


i think you summed it up yourself. you weren't thinking.

the specific not thiking you were doing was you were confusing the idea of VBD-drafting versus the idea of, "I only draft a rb in the first 3 rounds of the draft; anything else is completely asinine; get away from me; don't tell me anything different"-drafting. because under VBD, moss is a #12 overall pick at worst. and could be considered higher, depending on your projections. definitely right in the neighborhood of westbrook. and as far as vbd is concerned, they might just live next door.
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Postby RugbyD » Sat Oct 08, 2005 2:52 pm

VBD is far more relevant to drafting because you have no idea what your ful roster is. During the season trades are all about making you starting lineup better without vacating your bench. 2 very different things.
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Postby tag72 » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:13 pm

s0meguy wrote:Westbrook isn't that great and he's certainly not elite. He doesn't get goal line carries or score touchdowns from inside the 10s. That team is all TO and McNabb. I'd trade him for Moss in a second.


Yeah he may not get TD's from inside the 10's but he gets the TD's. He has 12 TD's in his last 11 games. How many other players can say that? He is one of the most underrated fantasy RB's out there.
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Postby Matthias » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:29 pm

tag72 wrote:
s0meguy wrote:Westbrook isn't that great and he's certainly not elite. He doesn't get goal line carries or score touchdowns from inside the 10s. That team is all TO and McNabb. I'd trade him for Moss in a second.


Yeah he may not get TD's from inside the 10's but he gets the TD's. He has 12 TD's in his last 11 games. How many other players can say that? He is one of the most underrated fantasy RB's out there.


well... whenever someone says that somebody has 12 td's in the last 11 games, i'm generally guessing they also have 12 td's in the last 13 or what not. let's check. hmm... yep. 12 td's in the last 13 games and 13 td's in the last 18 streching back to the beginning of last season (and omitting, as tag did, that he didn't plan in the last 2 games of last season otherwise it would be 12 td's in the last 14 and 13 td's in his last 20). isn't number manipulation fun?

i'm not that familiar with the eagles rushing game this year; how andy reid is assigning duties or what not, but last year, westbrook got more touchdowns than he probably would have because buckhalter got injured real early. so... i'm not sure on what their game plan is this year (i do see that westbrook got one score from the 5), but that could hurt his production.

but regardless: moss is more or less the equal of westbrook in terms of value. and, as others have pointed out, in trading him, the question now becomes how it affects your roster.
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Postby tag72 » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:52 pm

Matthias wrote:
tag72 wrote:
s0meguy wrote:Westbrook isn't that great and he's certainly not elite. He doesn't get goal line carries or score touchdowns from inside the 10s. That team is all TO and McNabb. I'd trade him for Moss in a second.


Yeah he may not get TD's from inside the 10's but he gets the TD's. He has 12 TD's in his last 11 games. How many other players can say that? He is one of the most underrated fantasy RB's out there.


well... whenever someone says that somebody has 12 td's in the last 11 games, i'm generally guessing they also have 12 td's in the last 13 or what not. let's check. hmm... yep. 12 td's in the last 13 games and 13 td's in the last 18 streching back to the beginning of last season (and omitting, as tag did, that he didn't plan in the last 2 games of last season otherwise it would be 12 td's in the last 14 and 13 td's in his last 20). isn't number manipulation fun?

i'm not that familiar with the eagles rushing game this year; how andy reid is assigning duties or what not, but last year, westbrook got more touchdowns than he probably would have because buckhalter got injured real early. so... i'm not sure on what their game plan is this year (i do see that westbrook got one score from the 5), but that could hurt his production.

but regardless: moss is more or less the equal of westbrook in terms of value. and, as others have pointed out, in trading him, the question now becomes how it affects your roster.


Sorry for not being specific. He has 12 TD's in the last 11 regular season games he has played in. Late last year the Eagles chose to sit many players that probably could have started, something about being healthy for the playoffs. Westbrook also scored TD's in 2 of the 3 playoff games he was in last year. Has 4 TD's in 4 games this year. He is a huge part of the Eagles offense My whole point was that it doesnt matter where the TD's come from, as the majority of Westbrooks are through the air but that Westbrook is underrated. He missed a game about half way through last year, but since then he has been a TD machine. I never once said that I would or would not make the trade. I was simply replying to the post that said Westbrook couldnt be considered an elte back because he doesnt score inside the 10.
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