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Why isn't the VBD theory used after the draft?

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Postby jjigglers » Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:12 pm

s0meguy wrote:Westbrook isn't that great and he's certainly not elite. He doesn't get goal line carries or score touchdowns from inside the 10s. That team is all TO and McNabb. I'd trade him for Moss in a second.


;-D

Knowing so much about VBD, the value of Moss over the other WR is so high that Westbrook's value over the replacement player you probably have on the bench is small enough to justify the trade.

Then again, if you dont have a backup RB, and there are none available, then I guess you'd be safer keeping Westbrook.
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Postby Matthias » Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:21 pm

tag72 wrote:Sorry for not being specific. He has 12 TD's in the last 11 regular season games he has played in. Late last year the Eagles chose to sit many players that probably could have started, something about being healthy for the playoffs. Westbrook also scored TD's in 2 of the 3 playoff games he was in last year. Has 4 TD's in 4 games this year. He is a huge part of the Eagles offense My whole point was that it doesnt matter where the TD's come from, as the majority of Westbrooks are through the air but that Westbrook is underrated. He missed a game about half way through last year, but since then he has been a TD machine. I never once said that I would or would not make the trade. I was simply replying to the post that said Westbrook couldnt be considered an elte back because he doesnt score inside the 10.


yah, and my point is i live in brooklyn and if you think that after starting the game 2-for-20, tracy macgrady goes 6-for-8, means that he then has a "hot hand" and you have to give it to him for automatic points, i have a bridge near me i can sell to you. unless you have a coherent explanation for arbitrary start points, e.g. "after darrell jackson went down in week 4, joe jurivicious went crazy, scoring 14 TD's in the last 12 weeks of the season" to give half-complete totals is just cherry-picking your data and not being statistically honest.
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Postby jjigglers » Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:33 pm

Matthias wrote:
tag72 wrote:Sorry for not being specific. He has 12 TD's in the last 11 regular season games he has played in. Late last year the Eagles chose to sit many players that probably could have started, something about being healthy for the playoffs. Westbrook also scored TD's in 2 of the 3 playoff games he was in last year. Has 4 TD's in 4 games this year. He is a huge part of the Eagles offense My whole point was that it doesnt matter where the TD's come from, as the majority of Westbrooks are through the air but that Westbrook is underrated. He missed a game about half way through last year, but since then he has been a TD machine. I never once said that I would or would not make the trade. I was simply replying to the post that said Westbrook couldnt be considered an elte back because he doesnt score inside the 10.


yah, and my point is i live in brooklyn and if you think that after starting the game 2-for-20, tracy macgrady goes 6-for-8, means that he then has a "hot hand" and you have to give it to him for automatic points, i have a bridge near me i can sell to you. unless you have a coherent explanation for arbitrary start points, e.g. "after darrell jackson went down in week 4, joe jurivicious went crazy, scoring 14 TD's in the last 12 weeks of the season" to give half-complete totals is just cherry-picking your data and not being statistically honest.



This is actually a good point, because data is too often manipulated to fit the needs of whoever is making the statement.
Last edited by jjigglers on Sat Oct 08, 2005 7:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby gatorman1122 » Sat Oct 08, 2005 7:06 pm

:-?
If your argument is based on VBD (e.g., positional scarcity), then you should have accepted the trade.

Randy Moss will have a better chance of being a top 5 WR compared to Westbrook becoming a top 5 RB. Randy Moss currently hasn't been targeted as much (only 37 passes thrown his way as of right now), leaving him in 11th place. As the season progresses, I would assume that Collins will learn to force the ball more into Moss and let him make the big plays.
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Postby tag72 » Sat Oct 08, 2005 11:56 pm

Matthias wrote:
tag72 wrote:Sorry for not being specific. He has 12 TD's in the last 11 regular season games he has played in. Late last year the Eagles chose to sit many players that probably could have started, something about being healthy for the playoffs. Westbrook also scored TD's in 2 of the 3 playoff games he was in last year. Has 4 TD's in 4 games this year. He is a huge part of the Eagles offense My whole point was that it doesnt matter where the TD's come from, as the majority of Westbrooks are through the air but that Westbrook is underrated. He missed a game about half way through last year, but since then he has been a TD machine. I never once said that I would or would not make the trade. I was simply replying to the post that said Westbrook couldnt be considered an elte back because he doesnt score inside the 10.


yah, and my point is i live in brooklyn and if you think that after starting the game 2-for-20, tracy macgrady goes 6-for-8, means that he then has a "hot hand" and you have to give it to him for automatic points, i have a bridge near me i can sell to you. unless you have a coherent explanation for arbitrary start points, e.g. "after darrell jackson went down in week 4, joe jurivicious went crazy, scoring 14 TD's in the last 12 weeks of the season" to give half-complete totals is just cherry-picking your data and not being statistically honest.


There is nothing inaccurate to what I said. Comparing him and Jurevicious is 2 different things. Westbrook is a major part of the Philly offense. Yes last year it happened because Buckhalter went down. Well guess what, he went down again and Westbrooks is still scoring TD's. he has 1 in every game this year. There was nothing half complete. i was refering to the games he played, because obviously if he isnt playing he cant score TD's. If you choose to ignore the fact that Westbrook is a top fantasy back, fine yhat is your choice. But that is the reason he is underrated. I would rather have him than a lot of top backs because when Philly is way behind he doesnt come out of the game because of the need to pass, he just becomes more valuable.
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Re: Why isn't the VBD theory used after the draft?

Postby Count_Rugen » Sun Oct 09, 2005 12:05 am

aussieboy wrote:I was wondering why people tend to forget about the principles of Value Based Drafting during the season.


Because VB Drafting only applies when you're drafting, silly.


aussieboy wrote:I was offered Moss for my Westbrook in one of my leagues, and I rejected the offer without thinking.

The ONLY reason i'd consider that deal is if I had a good backup RB and desperately needed a WR.

Is my thinking off?


It depends. As someone else suggested, if you've already got proven performers in your WR slots, then yes, you're ok. BUT, unless your league's scoring is tilted heavily towards RB's (some leagues are), in most instances you probably should have made this trade.
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Postby tomkatt » Sun Oct 09, 2005 12:50 am

PACKman1144 wrote:Trading all depends in your teams situation. If have Holt, Chad Johnson and say Darrel Jackson at wideout (unrealistic), and Brian Westbrook and Caddy at RB with come one like Moore backing them up there's no way I pull the deal for Moss, but if i'm stacked at RB and Westy is riding the bench I'll pull the trigger in a heart beat. It all depends on your teams situation so I'd say it is hard to say whether you should apply that kind of Value to trades.

Trades are all about situations, drafting is just getting the best guy available.


I agree. I've made two deals to help (at least I think so :-b ) my team's starting WR situation. I had Driver/Lelie. I traded away S. Davis to get R. Wayne last week, and this week I traded C. Portis to get Roy Williams. I know it was a hit to my RB depth, but I start LT2 & Westy. Picked up Benson in the Wayne deal, so I'm hoping he'll get some carries in the second half. Also dropped J.J. Arrington (acquired in the Portis deal) for Davenport to help cover Westy's upcoming bye week.

Anyway, back to the point. As much as I liked the idea of having S. Davis/C. Portis on my bench as insurance and bye week covers, I liked the idea of starting R. Wayne & Roy Williams every week quite a bit better. What your team NEEDS is the most important factor in assigning value to players once the season starts IMO.
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Postby Kensat30 » Sun Oct 09, 2005 12:57 am

A top3 WR is more important than a top10 RB IMO. It's 4 weeks into the season, but I don't see any reason to elevate Westbrook into the range of Shaun Alexander, Ladanian Tomlinson, even Priest Holmes.. He's just another POTENTIAL top10 RB. You had to know before last week that Philly has always employed the RBBC under Andy Reid. Can the presence of Lamar Gordon (and Ryan Moats for that matter) be ignored now that he had virtually the same fantasy point total as Westbrook last week? Call it one game, but I'm not seeing LT or SA getting equal points to Michael Turner or Maurice Morris EVER if they are healthy.

And please don't try to compared Westbrook to Priest/LJ, KC has more TDs to RBs then past 3 years than like the top5 other teams combined. When we talk about potential, I don't think KC can be ignored.
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Anyways, back to Westbrook. I'm just not seeing enough opportunity (rushes, goalline touches, RBBC, etc.) for him to become a TRUE difference maker at RB(top5/top3) when all is said and done. Yards per touch, combined yardage, I just can't see Westbrook eclipsing 300 fantasy points at season end. And the fact that he has never completed a full season healthy, even under extremely limited touches, is troubling.

I would much rather have a guy like Randy Moss who has consistently proven himself as a top WR season after season. He's gotten injured once in 7 seasons, and he produces like a RB from the WR position. Randy Moss = consistency IMO. And WR is not a consistent position. That is a huge advantage right there.
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In the end I think it comes down to this: Stud RBs are rarely TRUE difference makers in fantasy football. Marshall Faulk for a few years, Edgerrin James his rookie year and 2nd year, Priest Holmes for the past couple years... I just don't see Westbrook reaching that level. Randy Moss has already reached that level IMO.
Last edited by Kensat30 on Sun Oct 09, 2005 1:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby grover99 » Sun Oct 09, 2005 12:58 am

tomkatt wrote:
PACKman1144 wrote:Trading all depends in your teams situation. If have Holt, Chad Johnson and say Darrel Jackson at wideout (unrealistic), and Brian Westbrook and Caddy at RB with come one like Moore backing them up there's no way I pull the deal for Moss, but if i'm stacked at RB and Westy is riding the bench I'll pull the trigger in a heart beat. It all depends on your teams situation so I'd say it is hard to say whether you should apply that kind of Value to trades.

Trades are all about situations, drafting is just getting the best guy available.


I agree. I've made two deals to help (at least I think so :-b ) my team's starting WR situation. I had Driver/Lelie. I traded away S. Davis to get R. Wayne last week, and this week I traded C. Portis to get Roy Williams. I know it was a hit to my RB depth, but I start LT2 & Westy. Picked up Benson in the Wayne deal, so I'm hoping he'll get some carries in the second half. Also dropped J.J. Arrington (acquired in the Portis deal) for Davenport to help cover Westy's upcoming bye week.

Anyway, back to the point. As much as I liked the idea of having S. Davis/C. Portis on my bench as insurance and bye week covers, I liked the idea of starting R. Wayne & Roy Williams every week quite a bit better. What your team NEEDS is the most important factor in assigning value to players once the season starts IMO.


I agree that trading depends on your weaknesses and stregnths, not the overall value of a player. BTW Portis for Roy is not a very good trade IMO.
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Postby Kensat30 » Sun Oct 09, 2005 1:13 am

VBD for RBs is heavily weighted on POTENTIAL to become a top3 stud RB during the draft. It's hard to judge how that potential changes as the season progresses, until later in the year as guys fall out of the race.... That's why basing VBD on realtime rankings during the year is a bad idea IMO. The season is a marathon, not a sprint...

A good example of this is Warrick Dunn.

Warrick Dunn falls in the draft every year. He's been a top20 RB every season for his entire career, but he has never been in the top10. He has almost zero potential to be a top3 stud RB, so people don't want him on draft day. Yet for those people that value a guy who is consistently a RB#2, and has potential to be a RB#1 in any given week, he presents huge value during the draft. And is liking to be a hot commodity during the season when "stud potentials" turn out to be busts.

I had Warrick Dunn ranked as my #22 RB this preseason but I can almost guarantee you that he will surpass that ranking.
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