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Why isn't the VBD theory used after the draft?

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Westbrook over Moss

Postby DraftDodger » Sun Oct 09, 2005 3:53 am

Aside from quarterbacks, only Tomlinson, Alexander, and Owens have outscored Westbrook in my league.

Take Randy Moss for my Westbrook? LOL, no way!

Collins goes down, and Moss has to rely on M. Tuiasosopo to feed him the ball. Yeah, right! McNabb goes down, and Philly goes, "Gee, I guess we'll have to ask Westbrook to carry us."

I'll take Westbrook over Moss any day of the week.

And let's keep in mind that Westbrook has more receiving TDs than Moss, LOL ;-D
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Re: Westbrook over Moss

Postby Free Bagel » Sun Oct 09, 2005 10:24 am

This whole thing is why I've been pimping the idea of drafting a top 3 WR and then trading them during the season. WR value is always at its lowest point in the offseason when everyone is going gaga over VBD. You could probably trade Moss or TO for almost any of the RBs that were selected before them in the draft outside of LT and SA right now.

DraftDodger wrote:Aside from quarterbacks, only Tomlinson, Alexander, and Owens have outscored Westbrook in my league.

Take Randy Moss for my Westbrook? LOL, no way!

Collins goes down, and Moss has to rely on M. Tuiasosopo to feed him the ball. Yeah, right! McNabb goes down, and Philly goes, "Gee, I guess we'll have to ask Westbrook to carry us."

I'll take Westbrook over Moss any day of the week.

And let's keep in mind that Westbrook has more receiving TDs than Moss, LOL ;-D


Huh? This logic makes absolutely no sense for more reasons than I can count. For starters, the likelihood that the QBs get injured is pretty small. Secondly, Mcnabb is more likely to be the one to go down if one does, as he's always getting banged up and is already playing hurt this year. Collins has missed 3 games to injury in the last 6 years.

Even moreso, Westbrook would be hurt much more by losing his QB than Moss. Moss has shown time and time and time and time and time and again that he can succeed with any terrible QB at the helm, Westbrook certainly has not done it without anyone but Mcnabb. "They'll turn to Westbrook to carry the load"?? Wha? I think it's pretty clear that Philly is never going to ask Westbrook to carry the load, hence their unwillingness to go into even a single game without picking up some lousy RB to take carries from him. The guy has carried the ball 20 times once.........IN HIS CAREER. Westy gets his value in his receiving, so him losing his QB hurts just as bad, even moreso since he actually needs a QB to throw good passes, whereas Moss has shown he can get it done with any QB capable of throwing the ball up in the air.
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Re: Westbrook over Moss

Postby Count_Rugen » Sun Oct 09, 2005 10:43 am

Free Bagel wrote:
DraftDodger wrote:Aside from quarterbacks, only Tomlinson, Alexander, and Owens have outscored Westbrook in my league.

Take Randy Moss for my Westbrook? LOL, no way!

Collins goes down, and Moss has to rely on M. Tuiasosopo to feed him the ball. Yeah, right! McNabb goes down, and Philly goes, "Gee, I guess we'll have to ask Westbrook to carry us."

I'll take Westbrook over Moss any day of the week.

And let's keep in mind that Westbrook has more receiving TDs than Moss, LOL ;-D


Huh? This logic makes absolutely no sense for more reasons than I can count.


You said it better than I could FB.
Long story short: I don't see how anyone can compare Moss and Westbrook. There just is no comparison at all. Moss is the better fantasy option by far.
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Postby Matthias » Sun Oct 09, 2005 10:43 am

tag72 wrote:
Matthias wrote:unless you have a coherent explanation for arbitrary start points, e.g. "after darrell jackson went down in week 4, joe jurivicious went crazy, scoring 14 TD's in the last 12 weeks of the season" to give half-complete totals is just cherry-picking your data and not being statistically honest.


There is nothing inaccurate to what I said. Comparing him and Jurevicious is 2 different things. Westbrook is a major part of the Philly offense. Yes last year it happened because Buckhalter went down. Well guess what, he went down again and Westbrooks is still scoring TD's. he has 1 in every game this year. There was nothing half complete. ... If you choose to ignore the fact that Westbrook is a top fantasy back, fine yhat is your choice. But that is the reason he is underrated...


i didn't compare westbrook to jurvicious. e.g. = exempli gratia, or "for example". it was an illustration of a point. all i said was that unless you have an explanatory event to mark why you are using an arbitrary starting point, it is generally best to use something standard, like a full season.

generally, the best explanatory events involve other people: a new offensive line, the return of a key blocking fullback, the loss of the goal-line vulture... that kind of stuff. so, for example again, if ahman green stays injured, you would talk about najeh davenport's statistics dating back to this week, ignoring the stuff in the earlier weeks when he wasn't starting. and that makes sense. but there was nothing that changed in the middle of last season to justify making that as your starting point for comparison for westbrook other than it made him look better. it's just all about data integrity. otherwise you get people saying brandon lloyd is the best receiver in the game right now because he's gone for over 240 yards and 2TD's in the last 2 games. incidentally, my favorite cherry-picked statistic was denny green's in his last year at minnesota where he would say that he felt good about a game because he, as a coach, had a 4-0 record going into the bye week. now... i can understand talking about your record after the bye: you're well-rested; you've had an extra week to gameplan; your players are loose; etc., etc. but that stat is just nonsense. but it made him look good. so he played it up.

back on topic, though, is westbrook a good back? yah. is he an elite back? i'd prefer him over most... definitely over the likes of portis, martin, or tiki. but is he so good that a straight-up trade for moss is unfair? no. that's all.
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Re: Why isn't the VBD theory used after the draft?

Postby The Guru » Sun Oct 09, 2005 10:55 am

aussieboy wrote:I was wondering why people tend to forget about the principles of Value Based Drafting during the season.

For those of you unaware of what VBD is, it basically is a system that takes into account positional scarcity when determing players' values.

I was reading a past Brian Westbrook thread, when I noticed that a few guys said they would pull the trigger on a Randy Moss for Westbrook deal, ie they would give away Westbrook for Moss.

I don't understand this.

Brian Westbrook is currently an elite RB, there is no reason why he won't continue his big production. Is it his injury risk that scares people?

This is not the first time i've noticed people willing to give up very very good RBs for elite WRs like Moss or TO.

Made me think that once the draft is over, a lot of people tend to look at production straight up instead of taking positional scarcity into account.

I was offered Moss for my Westbrook in one of my leagues, and I rejected the offer without thinking.

The ONLY reason i'd consider that deal is if I had a good backup RB and desperately needed a WR.

Is my thinking off?
Once you brought up VBDing I thought you were going the other way with this discussion.

Moss and TO are all by themselves at the top of the WR chain. To me either one is much more valuable then Westbrook. There are plenty of starting quality RBs this year; like a westy. But there are only 2 elite WRs.

Since there is a scarity at the WR position and there are plnety of RB; I'd rather have the WR; Moss in this case.
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Postby tag72 » Sun Oct 09, 2005 12:47 pm

Matthias wrote:
tag72 wrote:
Matthias wrote:unless you have a coherent explanation for arbitrary start points, e.g. "after darrell jackson went down in week 4, joe jurivicious went crazy, scoring 14 TD's in the last 12 weeks of the season" to give half-complete totals is just cherry-picking your data and not being statistically honest.


There is nothing inaccurate to what I said. Comparing him and Jurevicious is 2 different things. Westbrook is a major part of the Philly offense. Yes last year it happened because Buckhalter went down. Well guess what, he went down again and Westbrooks is still scoring TD's. he has 1 in every game this year. There was nothing half complete. ... If you choose to ignore the fact that Westbrook is a top fantasy back, fine yhat is your choice. But that is the reason he is underrated...


i didn't compare westbrook to jurvicious. e.g. = exempli gratia, or "for example". it was an illustration of a point. all i said was that unless you have an explanatory event to mark why you are using an arbitrary starting point, it is generally best to use something standard, like a full season.

generally, the best explanatory events involve other people: a new offensive line, the return of a key blocking fullback, the loss of the goal-line vulture... that kind of stuff. so, for example again, if ahman green stays injured, you would talk about najeh davenport's statistics dating back to this week, ignoring the stuff in the earlier weeks when he wasn't starting. and that makes sense. but there was nothing that changed in the middle of last season to justify making that as your starting point for comparison for westbrook other than it made him look better. it's just all about data integrity. otherwise you get people saying brandon lloyd is the best receiver in the game right now because he's gone for over 240 yards and 2TD's in the last 2 games. incidentally, my favorite cherry-picked statistic was denny green's in his last year at minnesota where he would say that he felt good about a game because he, as a coach, had a 4-0 record going into the bye week. now... i can understand talking about your record after the bye: you're well-rested; you've had an extra week to gameplan; your players are loose; etc., etc. but that stat is just nonsense. but it made him look good. so he played it up.

back on topic, though, is westbrook a good back? yah. is he an elite back? i'd prefer him over most... definitely over the likes of portis, martin, or tiki. but is he so good that a straight-up trade for moss is unfair? no. that's all.


Thats all fair. I was not trying to make Westbrook out to be an elite back. My point was simply that he is underrated. I was never replying to the question of whether or not him for Moss was a good trade. I just see Westbrook as a very underrated back. Last year a guy offered me, and I accepted, Westbrook for the Balt Def. Thats all i am saying, is he doesnt get the recognition he deserves. Of course there are guys I would take over him or trade him for. But when a RB like Westbrook goes in the 3rd and 4th rounds in some drafts, well your not going to get a much better RB2 for your fantasy team. Now would I trade him for MOss? That really depends on who else I have at RB and WR. I drafted TO and CJ back to back in my league, so if in that league I had Westbrook as my 2nd RB there would be no need to trade him for Moss. However if I had say went RB RB RB in the first 3 rounds, well there is a good chance I would need a WR and would have no problem trading him for Moss.
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Postby 34=Sweetness » Sun Oct 09, 2005 3:00 pm

s0meguy wrote:Westbrook isn't that great and he's certainly not elite. He doesn't get goal line carries or score touchdowns from inside the 10s. That team is all TO and McNabb. I'd trade him for Moss in a second.

Uh, look at the stats before saying something that silly again. Hes one of the highest scoreres for RBs so far, ummmmkay?
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Postby jjigglers » Sun Oct 09, 2005 6:23 pm

34=Sweetness wrote:
s0meguy wrote:Westbrook isn't that great and he's certainly not elite. He doesn't get goal line carries or score touchdowns from inside the 10s. That team is all TO and McNabb. I'd trade him for Moss in a second.

Uh, look at the stats before saying something that silly again. Hes one of the highest scoreres for RBs so far, ummmmkay?


As a Westbrook owner, I'd trade him for Moss in a second also, that is, if I didnt own Moss already.

You have to take his production with a grain of salt. Since this whole discussion is about who has more value, you can judge value by thinking, if you had a draft right now, who would go first? IMO 8 out of 10 fantasy owners would take Moss.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:18 am

Kensat30 wrote:VBD for RBs is heavily weighted on POTENTIAL to become a top3 stud RB during the draft. It's hard to judge how that potential changes as the season progresses, until later in the year as guys fall out of the race.... That's why basing VBD on realtime rankings during the year is a bad idea IMO. The season is a marathon, not a sprint...



Thank you - I read this thread waiting for someone to mention that VBD is based on potential or on projections from here on out.
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Re: Why isn't the VBD theory used after the draft?

Postby Always a winner » Mon Oct 10, 2005 7:58 pm

aussieboy wrote:I was wondering why people tend to forget about the principles of Value Based Drafting during the season. ...
Is my thinking off?

I think VBD absolutely should be used as part of evaluating trades. When evaluating a trade, you need to look at two separate ways it will affect you:

1. Getting fair value for your players
2. Improving your team

An integral part is including your own predictions for each player involved, but those predictions are only used to evaluate these two separate ideas. VBD is the best way to determine fairness. It is how players are valued on draft day and I don't see why that would change during the season (I'll reply to Kensat and CB's complaint below).

I haven't seen anyone actually post VBDs for the 'Moss for Westbrook' example that was originally mentioned, so here they are for two scoring systems. Both are 10 yds = 1 pt, TD = 6 pts, but the second system includes 1 rec = 1 pt. Baseline for Westbrook is the 24th RB. I'll show two baselines for Moss: 24th WR and 36th WR. VBDs are on a per-game average through week 4.

Westbrook: 8.6 (0 pt/rec); 12.6 (1 pt/rec)
Moss (24 WR baseline): 5.6 (0 pt/rec); 5.0 (1 pt/rec)
Moss (36 WR baseline): 7.3 (0 pt/rec); 8.1 (1 pt/rec)

So, if we project that both players will score the same for the rest of the year, Westbrook has more value than Moss in all leagues/scoring systems (Westbrook scores 8.6 ppg more than the worst starting RB while Moss scores 5.6 or 7.3 ppg more than the worst starting WR, depending on if you start 2 or 3 WR). If you predict something like "Moss and Collins will start clicking later in the year" and "Westbrook can't keep up this pace" then you can change your predictions. In the end, however, you need to use those predictions to compare the players' VBDs. It's what everyone does mentally when thinking about a trade, but the individual steps get blurred.
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