Why isn't the VBD theory used after the draft? - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


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Why isn't the VBD theory used after the draft?

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Postby Always a winner » Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:42 pm

Kensat30 wrote:VBD for RBs is heavily weighted on POTENTIAL to become a top3 stud RB during the draft. It's hard to judge how that potential changes as the season progresses, until later in the year as guys fall out of the race.... That's why basing VBD on realtime rankings during the year is a bad idea IMO. The season is a marathon, not a sprint...

A good example of this is Warrick Dunn.

Warrick Dunn falls in the draft every year. He's been a top20 RB every season for his entire career, but he has never been in the top10. He has almost zero potential to be a top3 stud RB, so people don't want him on draft day. Yet for those people that value a guy who is consistently a RB#2, and has potential to be a RB#1 in any given week, he presents huge value during the draft. And is liking to be a hot commodity during the season when "stud potentials" turn out to be busts.

I had Warrick Dunn ranked as my #22 RB this preseason but I can almost guarantee you that he will surpass that ranking.

I agree with half of your argument.

I agree that preseason rankings are weighted towards potential. Everyone wants a chance to draft the big stud RB of the year and neglects steady guys like Dunn. There is an inability to predict who will be a bust, so the upside guys get pushed ahead of Dunn.

But the error is only in the predictions, not in VBD. VBD is only a method of comparing players of different positions. If you plug in inaccurate predictions, you will get inaccurate results.

Although VBD refers to a drafting system, the "V" for value still applies during the regular season. All it does is compare each player to the worst starter at his position. The "D" for drafting ranks them by this value, but that is only after you've converted fantasy points into a common currency: value.

Call it Value Based Trading (VBT).

I'll bet that if you take all of the posts in the Trade Evaluations thread right now and

1. Factor in each commenter's projections
2. Calculate a VBT for each player
3. Add the VBTs for the players on each side of the trade

The commenter will agree the trade is fair if the VBTs are similar and say it is unfair if the VBTs are different. I'm not attempting or recommending this task, but I'm just pointing out that this is the subconscious mental process people normally go through when testing the fairness of a trade. If you have projections for each player involved then it is easy to calculate their value and determine if the trade is fair.
Last edited by Always a winner on Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby Always a winner » Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:45 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:VBD for RBs is heavily weighted on POTENTIAL to become a top3 stud RB during the draft. It's hard to judge how that potential changes as the season progresses, until later in the year as guys fall out of the race.... That's why basing VBD on realtime rankings during the year is a bad idea IMO. The season is a marathon, not a sprint...



Thank you - I read this thread waiting for someone to mention that VBD is based on potential or on projections from here on out.

You're exactly right.

That's why it is applicable to in-season projections as well.
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Re: Why isn't the VBD theory used after the draft?

Postby Kensat30 » Mon Oct 10, 2005 11:43 pm

Always a winner wrote:
So, if we project that both players will score the same for the rest of the year, Westbrook has more value than Moss in all leagues/scoring systems .


Depending on when you're projecting from, Westbrook could have been projected for 20+ TDs this season. Carnell could have been projected for 2,400 yards rushing.... Inherent flaw in your analysis.

Does that mean guys like Billy Volek last year are irrelevant? Of course not.. but you have to project trade value based on potential and not stats from the last few weeks. It can be especially dangerous to do that type of projection since the season is only a few weeks old. Accurate strength of schedule, matchup analysis, etc. is just now coming out based on the few games that have been played.
----

Recent stats can HELP you in your projections, but I think they can also be a big influence in a player becoming over and undervalued. Watching the games and knowing what is going on is much more important that analyzing a statline during the season IMO.

Brian Westbrook is a prime example of this, because he scored what like 4 TDs in his first 3 games and people declared him a stud? You can see the guy go 8 games last year without a TD, he regularly sees 15 carries or less (goalline carries create stud RBs...) Despite the stats, I don't see how anyone can predict that Westbrook will ever be a top notch fantasy RB in Philadelphia's system.

Yes he can be very good, but he will never be a difference maker.

This argument is the reason a guy like Domanic Davis was placed ahead of Brian Westbrook in virtually every preseason rankings out there IMO.
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Re: Why isn't the VBD theory used after the draft?

Postby Always a winner » Tue Oct 11, 2005 9:13 am

Kensat30 wrote:
Always a winner wrote:
So, if we project that both players will score the same for the rest of the year, Westbrook has more value than Moss in all leagues/scoring systems .


Depending on when you're projecting from, Westbrook could have been projected for 20+ TDs this season. Carnell could have been projected for 2,400 yards rushing.... Inherent flaw in your analysis.

Does that mean guys like Billy Volek last year are irrelevant? Of course not.. but you have to project trade value based on potential and not stats from the last few weeks. It can be especially dangerous to do that type of projection since the season is only a few weeks old. Accurate strength of schedule, matchup analysis, etc. is just now coming out based on the few games that have been played.
----

Recent stats can HELP you in your projections, but I think they can also be a big influence in a player becoming over and undervalued. Watching the games and knowing what is going on is much more important that analyzing a statline during the season IMO.

Brian Westbrook is a prime example of this, because he scored what like 4 TDs in his first 3 games and people declared him a stud? You can see the guy go 8 games last year without a TD, he regularly sees 15 carries or less (goalline carries create stud RBs...) Despite the stats, I don't see how anyone can predict that Westbrook will ever be a top notch fantasy RB in Philadelphia's system.

Yes he can be very good, but he will never be a difference maker.

This argument is the reason a guy like Domanic Davis was placed ahead of Brian Westbrook in virtually every preseason rankings out there IMO.


Yes, I agree. I was just saying "if" we project the same stats for the rest of the year we would get that result. I'm not arguing that Westbrook will be better than Moss for the rest of the year. I'm just showing you need to separate the issues of projecting and comparing players. Projecting is the most important (and difficult) part, but after that you can use VBD to compare them. It's the exact same as what you do for pre-season VBD, but you just use your own in-season projections instead.

For someone like Volek, he would be given a value based on (chance McNair gets injured) * (value if Volek plays). That's how he was valued at the beginning of the year, and how he should continue to be valued. I completely agree that past stats alone aren't the way to predict.

For Westbrook/Moss, I just wanted to show the VBDs for their season-to-date stats because that is the prime example of this thread and no one had even mentioned what their current VBDs are. Most (but not all) people would predict that Moss's stats (and thus VBD) will go up and Westrbook's will go down. VBD can tell you exactly how much Moss has to improve for them to be equal.
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