Kensat30 wrote:VBD for RBs is heavily weighted on POTENTIAL to become a top3 stud RB during the draft. It's hard to judge how that potential changes as the season progresses, until later in the year as guys fall out of the race.... That's why basing VBD on realtime rankings during the year is a bad idea IMO. The season is a marathon, not a sprint...
A good example of this is Warrick Dunn.
Warrick Dunn falls in the draft every year. He's been a top20 RB every season for his entire career, but he has never been in the top10. He has almost zero potential to be a top3 stud RB, so people don't want him on draft day. Yet for those people that value a guy who is consistently a RB#2, and has potential to be a RB#1 in any given week, he presents huge value during the draft. And is liking to be a hot commodity during the season when "stud potentials" turn out to be busts.
I had Warrick Dunn ranked as my #22 RB this preseason but I can almost guarantee you that he will surpass that ranking.
I agree with half of your argument.
I agree that preseason rankings are weighted towards potential. Everyone wants a chance to draft the big stud RB of the year and neglects steady guys like Dunn. There is an inability to predict who will be a bust, so the upside guys get pushed ahead of Dunn.
But the error is only in the predictions, not in VBD. VBD is only a method of comparing players of different positions. If you plug in inaccurate predictions, you will get inaccurate results.
Although VBD refers to a drafting system, the "V" for value still applies during the regular season. All it does is compare each player to the worst starter at his position. The "D" for drafting ranks them by this value, but that is only after you've converted fantasy points into a common currency: value.
Call it Value Based Trading (VBT).
I'll bet that if you take all of the posts in the Trade Evaluations thread right now and
1. Factor in each commenter's projections
2. Calculate a VBT for each player
3. Add the VBTs for the players on each side of the trade
The commenter will agree the trade is fair if the VBTs are similar and say it is unfair if the VBTs are different. I'm not attempting or recommending this task, but I'm just pointing out that this is the subconscious mental process people normally go through when testing the fairness of a trade. If you have projections for each player involved then it is easy to calculate their value and determine if the trade is fair.