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Deuce's Value Next Year?

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Deuce's Value Next Year?

Postby CC » Tue Oct 11, 2005 5:56 pm

What kind of value is Deuce going to have in a keeper league, or even in next year's upcoming draft. It is usually said it takes about a year and a half to two years to recover from an ACL injury, and this brings him into next season.

Where do you think Deuce will be going in drafts next year, in what situation would you keep him, and how effective do you think he will be.
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Postby moonhead » Tue Oct 11, 2005 6:19 pm

he's a world class athlete. i don't think it will take him that long to recover from acl surgery. jason white (qb from oklahoma) was able to do it in less than 1 year (twice). blew one and then blew the other the next year. granted qb doesn't stress his knees quite as much as a rb, but I think he'll be able to be fine by next year.

as far as value goes, i wouldn't expect him to be a top 10 rb. I probably wouldn't keep him.
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Postby Goatwhacker » Tue Oct 11, 2005 6:28 pm

I think he'll be going second or third round in early drafts next year with eventual placement being determined by how he looks pre-season. Many of the backs who hold up and play well this year will move ahead of him.

I probably wouldn't hold on to him in a keeper league, although it would really depend on how many slots I had and what the makeup of my team was. He was not a particularly dominant back so far this year, now he'll be coming off an injury. Players seem to coming back pretty well from ACL's but there is still the chance he will have lost a step.
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Postby skibrett15 » Tue Oct 11, 2005 6:28 pm

he won't be worth one keeper, but in 2 or 3 keeper leagues I'd take a chance on him.
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Postby chaindog35 » Tue Oct 11, 2005 6:53 pm

Yeah, i think he's good in a 2+ keeper league. I think he'll be a late 2nd pick
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Postby maddog60 » Tue Oct 11, 2005 8:07 pm

I'm thinking he'll get drafted around where Ahman Green did this year. Though he'll have more upside. I think alot of his value will depend on what happens to NO this off-season. I imagine they won't make the playoffs, which should result in massive changes, starting with the long overdue firing of Hasslet, possibly the cutting of Aaron Brooks. Lots of things could possibly happen that will dramatically alter his value.
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Postby GreatestShowOnEarth » Tue Oct 11, 2005 8:54 pm

Hasslet wont get fired this year. Not with what has all happened in new orleans...i gurantee it!
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Postby BeefSandwiches » Tue Oct 11, 2005 9:51 pm

Here is a FootballDocs article about the 'two year rule' with RBs and ACL injury.

http://www.footballdocs.com/RB_injury_rule.html

Every case is different but if you can ride out a potentially below average year from Deuce next year, he may return to form the following year and I think he is worth the chance.

One thing the article doesn't take into consideration, which I think is a major factor is age. Jamal, Edge and Deuce are all roughly the same age but Jamal and Edge suffered their injuries early in their career on relatively fresh legs. Deuce is over 1000 carries for his career while Jamal and Edge had only 1 and 2.5 years under their respective belts.

I don't think Deuce is done but it will likely be a tougher road back. I would probably not draft Deuce in the 1st or 2nd next year, but I'll take him if he falls to me in the third.
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Postby The Lung » Tue Oct 11, 2005 10:40 pm

I thought he was overvalued going into this year as a first round pick. I was shocked to see many managers draft Deuce before Edgerrin James, Jamal Lewis, Willis McGahee, and others.

But similarly to Steve Smith, Deuce's value may be forgotten by draft time next year. I think he will be a late second rounder or early third rounder with, however, tremendous upside. He will be a very savvy pickup.
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Postby Kensat30 » Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:49 am

Deuce doesn't rely as much on his speed as other RBs, so I think he will be okay next year. Definitely worth a pick anywhere in the 2nd round in my book. And I think that's about where he will be selected.

ACL injury, questionable offense, questionable team, etc. he still is gonna get fed the ball. Franchise RB = stays in on 3rd down because of short yardage and pass catching ability. Hard to find those nowadays...
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