Transmogrifier wrote:Only Peter King seems to have tossed them out solely because of their status as current champions. (Which statisticians and logicians would do.)
Obviously you're not a statistician......I took a grade 13 Stats class here in Canada (about equivalent to a US year 1 college class) and one of the first things we earn is that although something is not likely to happen, it can still be the MOST likely to happen.
One can say that not one individual team is likely to win the Super Bowl. But of all the teams that have a slim chance, TB's chances are least-slimmest. Sure it's hard to repeat, but that has NO effect on their chances to win compared to everybody else. If they have a 13% chance (hypothetically), then they probably won't win the Super Bowl, since there is an 87% chance that they won't win it. Not because they won it last year, those are independant from each other. But no team has a better chance to win it (again, hypothetically), so TB would be the best choice, since there are no better choices.
it can be compared to flipping a coin......it's next to impossible to flip heads 15 times in a row (i know some of you will try - you will not succeed, no matter how long you try), but if you get heads the first time (a 50% chance), that doesn't lower the chances of getting heads the next time - it's still 50%.
That being said, I'm not a real statistician, and I think TB will win the super bowl.