TB is NOT going to win the Super Bowl

[Transmogrifier]

Is this bothering anyone else? Everyone seems to be picking Tampa Bay to repeat. Do they forget how hard it is to repeat in the new parity NFL?

Don Banks (CNNSI) talks about who could possibly stop the Bucs on the road back to the Super Bowl. ESPN's crew nearly all picked TB to repeat. Only Peter King seems to have tossed them out solely because of their status as current champions. (Which statisticians and logicians would do.)

Look, TB is a great team, and has a chance to win it. But the reality is, a repeat is highly unlikely.

After three games last year, no one thought the Pats could be stopped. Belichick was a genius for bringing Bill Russell in; Tom Brady was unstoppable, etc.

Then they couldn't stop losing. Super Bowl winners in the NFL largely emerge in November and December, and remain injury free. If Brad Johnson, Warren Sapp, Brooks, etc. go down, the Bucs are done.

Anyone agree with me? This is really starting to bother me...

[yoda83]

the thing that bothers me is how people are picking TB by saying, "well, they were the best team last year and won it. so why shouldnt they win it again?". tampa was barely a top 5 squad last year. and that's including their playoff performance.

[brdmaverick]

I will agree and say that Tampa Bay won't win it.

The teams that I feel have the best bet to win the Super Bowl are the Eagles and Steelers.

[9er Fan]

Was I the only one that watched MNF?

[Homeless]

That D is so far ahead of EVERY other defensive unit its sickening, with an average offense they will win in style. Only bad luck can stop them. (Injuries, bad calls etc)

[Transmogrifier]

Was I the only one that watched MNF?

Remember watching the Pats dismantle (then) Super Bowl-bound Pittsburgh? It's one week.

I think TB has a great team. They will not win the Super Bowl, however, the odds are stacked against them.

And, Homeless, bad luck is rife in the NFL.

[9er Fan]

the odds are stacked against them

Yes, if your claim is that one of the other 31 teams will win the superbowl, the odds are stacked against Tampa, but I'd happily put $100 on Tampa against any other single team to win the superbowl.

[LBJackal]

Only Peter King seems to have tossed them out solely because of their status as current champions. (Which statisticians and logicians would do.)

Obviously you're not a statistician......I took a grade 13 Stats class here in Canada (about equivalent to a US year 1 college class) and one of the first things we earn is that although something is not likely to happen, it can still be the MOST likely to happen.

One can say that not one individual team is likely to win the Super Bowl. But of all the teams that have a slim chance, TB's chances are least-slimmest. Sure it's hard to repeat, but that has NO effect on their chances to win compared to everybody else. If they have a 13% chance (hypothetically), then they probably won't win the Super Bowl, since there is an 87% chance that they won't win it. Not because they won it last year, those are independant from each other. But no team has a better chance to win it (again, hypothetically), so TB would be the best choice, since there are no better choices.

it can be compared to flipping a coin......it's next to impossible to flip heads 15 times in a row (i know some of you will try - you will not succeed, no matter how long you try), but if you get heads the first time (a 50% chance), that doesn't lower the chances of getting heads the next time - it's still 50%.

That being said, I'm not a real statistician, and I think TB will win the super bowl.

[Dazedncnfz]

although something is not likely to happen, it can still be the MOST likely to happen.

isn't that "Murphys Law"?!

[yoda83]

no, going for a super bowl repeat is not an independent event. there are way too many factors that arise b/c of the fact a team won it all the year before (eg. bullseye on the back; lethargy in the players, etc.). nothing like the coin flip.