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The Best Home and Away Teams

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The Best Home and Away Teams

Postby Demented Avenger » Thu Oct 13, 2005 4:52 pm

I was doing a little research, and decided to share it here. This is a list of the teams who are most affected by home-field advantage. Teams near the top play much better at home than away, and teams near the bottom actually play better on the road than at home.

The 2005 numbers are only based on 5 weeks, so it's not a huge sample size, but I still think it's pretty interesting.

This is not intended to be used for betting.

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Postby petedog9 » Thu Oct 13, 2005 5:15 pm

Curious as to the rankings. Why is Pittsburgh mid-pack on most of these ranking when they have won 10 straight road games and 15 of their last 16 overall.....
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Postby Demented Avenger » Thu Oct 13, 2005 5:19 pm

petedog9 wrote:Curious as to the rankings. Why is Pittsburgh mid-pack on most of these ranking when they have won 10 straight road games and 15 of their last 16 overall.....


It's not based on wins, but efficiency (Points per game, Rushing yards per attempt, Rushing yards per game, Passing completion %, Passing yards per attempt, and Yards per point).

It's also a comparative ranking - it doesn't matter how well Pittsburgh's done on the road, what matters is how much better they've done on the road than at home.
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Postby danleroi22 » Thu Oct 13, 2005 5:20 pm

Cool, how did you ran these guys? Yards?

EDIT: Ah... I see, I posted a minute or so after you posted the response... cool.
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Postby Azrael » Fri Oct 14, 2005 2:59 pm

That's pretty cool.
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Postby saundman2000 » Fri Oct 14, 2005 3:10 pm

Very interesting. I would like to see you post this on an ongoing basis as more games get played.

You might want to add a fudge factor or some kind of weighting to account for the quality of each opponent played... Just a suggestion
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Postby Demented Avenger » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:11 am

saundman2000 wrote:Very interesting. I would like to see you post this on an ongoing basis as more games get played.

You might want to add a fudge factor or some kind of weighting to account for the quality of each opponent played... Just a suggestion


I plan on updating it after week 6.

I considered the fudge factor, but something like that would be hard to implement, because there's no objective way to judge it. You can only judge how good a team is based on how they play against other teams, who can only be judged based on how they play against other teams, who can only be judged... etc.

Eventually I'm going to try to turn this into a system for predicting scores like Makaveli is doing in this thread.
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Postby Demented Avenger » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:22 am

Week 6 Update:

Again, teams at the top play better at home than away, and teams at the bottom play better away than at home.

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