Early Experiment in QB Formula (key word EXPERIMENT) - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Early Experiment in QB Formula (key word EXPERIMENT)

Moderator: Football Moderators

Early Experiment in QB Formula (key word EXPERIMENT)

Postby Challie » Fri Oct 14, 2005 7:43 pm

jjigglers has inspired me & I don't wish to compete with his efforts, but I tried something like this a year ago & I want to see if I can grow this thing into being halfway effective.

QB stats are based on:
PassTD & RushTD = 6 pts
50 Pass Yards = 1 pt
20 Rush Yards = 1 pt
Int & FumblesLost = -2 pts

The formula is loose, but so far it's:

* QB: (TDs + Yards - Turnovers / per game)
* DEF (TDs + Yards - INTs / per game)
--- (I'm weighting games played, for instance Holcomb only one game where the Jets have played 5 games, Holcomb's #s make 1/6 of the prediction & the Jets D 5/6 of the prediction)
* Yards per attempt (QB & Def) vs. league average

There are things I want to add to this, right now it doesn't account for defense yielding rush stats to QBs, how likely there are to be lots of passing attempts, and likelihood of the team's running game succeeding ... we'll see where this goes.

Anyway - DISCLAIMER: Please don't base too much on this, this is probably at least 4 weeks or a year and 4 weeks away from being worth much. But here goes:

Drew Bledsoe vs. NYG 15.34
Matt Hasselbeck vs. HOU 14.98
Carson Palmer vs. TEN 14.69
Ben Roethlisberger vs. JAC 12.19
Peyton Manning vs. STL 12.16
Michael Vick vs. NOR 11.98
Eli Manning vs. DAL 11.50
Drew Brees vs. OAK 11.08
Kerry Collins vs. SDG 10.82
Mark Brunell vs. KAN 10.82
Tom Brady vs. DEN 9.61
Jake Plummer vs. NEW 8.60
David Carr vs. SEA 8.40
Trent Dilfer vs. BAL 8.22
Anthony Wright vs. CLE 7.61
Jake Delhomme vs. DET 7.13
Joey Harrington vs. CAR 6.37
Kyle Orton vs. MIN 5.89
Trent Green vs. WAS 5.74
Brian Griese vs. MIA 5.72
Byron Leftwich vs. PIT 5.59
Aaron Brooks vs. ATL 5.25
Daunte Culpepper vs. CHI 5.11
Steve McNair vs. CIN 5.02
Marc Bulger vs. IND 4.76
Vinny Testaverde vs. BUF 4.28
Kelly Holcomb vs. NYJ 1.64
Gus Frerotte vs. TAM 1.52


Some of these look crazy (Roethlisberger vs. JAX that high?), but until I temper the Pass YDs per Attempt with predicted amount of attempts. Same thing goes the other way - if attempts were a bigger factor, then Bulger would be properly higher. Plus, perhaps the stats shouldn't be even between the Defense & QBs.

Uggh. OK, this is a work in progress.
Last edited by Challie on Fri Oct 14, 2005 8:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
... in my opinion, of course - but that should always go without saying.
www.bigfellas.net (home of the golf rap "On The Green")
Challie
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar

Posts: 1531
Joined: 3 Sep 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: San Diego

Postby bklik » Fri Oct 14, 2005 7:54 pm

I like it! Any openminded thinking about algorithms and fantasy football should be heard by all. I think maybe defense and qbs are easiest, maybe kickers next?...

Ive been thinking about this alot, ill pm you with my thoughts on this.
bklik
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar
Pick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown Survivor
Posts: 1147
Joined: 15 Sep 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: 3 Blocks from the Big House

Postby jjigglers » Fri Oct 14, 2005 8:16 pm

Runners arent much harder, as long as you can apply the percentage of yards or carries that a runner gets of the total rushing offense.

Kickers however, are an entirely different story.
jjigglers
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff

User avatar

Posts: 292
Joined: 30 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby jjigglers » Fri Oct 14, 2005 8:25 pm

Oh and to the original post, one thing I tried doing that really helped was account for a team's current strength of schedule. For example, CIN's defense has faced the easiest passing offense schedule so far, so according to my calculations, they are playing as a better than average, but not great passing defense. That's one of the reasons why I have McNair as one of my "surprise" plays this week.

This might also help with Big Ben. His Steelers have faced the second easiest schedule of passing defenses (Arizona is first), so that's why my rankings have him as a below average QB for this week. Not to mention Jacksonville has been one of the toughest passing defenses so far.
jjigglers
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff

User avatar

Posts: 292
Joined: 30 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Shockers » Fri Oct 14, 2005 10:34 pm

Well if nothing else it made me realize what a bad play Frerotte would be for a bye week fill in. I picked up Brunell off of the waiver. He's facing the 3rd worst pass defense in the league this week. Thanks for the post!
Anyone here collect football cards??? PM me for some great trading sites online.
Shockers
Defensive Assistant
Defensive Assistant

User avatar

Posts: 438
Joined: 22 Jul 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Washington

das

Postby sPoRtZsTuD2318 » Fri Oct 14, 2005 11:02 pm

jigglers has inspired me & I don't wish to compete with his efforts, but I tried something like this a year ago & I want to see if I can grow this thing into being halfway effective.

QB stats are based on:
PassTD & RushTD = 6 pts
50 Pass Yards = 1 pt
20 Rush Yards = 1 pt
Int & FumblesLost = -2 pts

The formula is loose, but so far it's:

* QB: (TDs + Yards - Turnovers / per game)
* DEF (TDs + Yards - INTs / per game)
--- (I'm weighting games played, for instance Holcomb only one game where the Jets have played 5 games, Holcomb's #s make 1/6 of the prediction & the Jets D 5/6 of the prediction)
* Yards per attempt (QB & Def) vs. league average

There are things I want to add to this, right now it doesn't account for defense yielding rush stats to QBs, how likely there are to be lots of passing attempts, and likelihood of the team's running game succeeding ... we'll see where this goes.

Anyway - DISCLAIMER: Please don't base too much on this, this is probably at least 4 weeks or a year and 4 weeks away from being worth much. But here goes:

Drew Bledsoe vs. NYG 15.34
Matt Hasselbeck vs. HOU 14.98
Carson Palmer vs. TEN 14.69
Ben Roethlisberger vs. JAC 12.19
Peyton Manning vs. STL 12.16
Michael Vick vs. NOR 11.98
Eli Manning vs. DAL 11.50
Drew Brees vs. OAK 11.08
Kerry Collins vs. SDG 10.82
Mark Brunell vs. KAN 10.82
Tom Brady vs. DEN 9.61
Jake Plummer vs. NEW 8.60
David Carr vs. SEA 8.40
Trent Dilfer vs. BAL 8.22
Anthony Wright vs. CLE 7.61
Jake Delhomme vs. DET 7.13
Joey Harrington vs. CAR 6.37
Kyle Orton vs. MIN 5.89
Trent Green vs. WAS 5.74
Brian Griese vs. MIA 5.72
Byron Leftwich vs. PIT 5.59
Aaron Brooks vs. ATL 5.25
Daunte Culpepper vs. CHI 5.11
Steve McNair vs. CIN 5.02
Marc Bulger vs. IND 4.76
Vinny Testaverde vs. BUF 4.28
Kelly Holcomb vs. NYJ 1.64
Gus Frerotte vs. TAM 1.52


Some of these look crazy (Roethlisberger vs. JAX that high?), but until I temper the Pass YDs per Attempt with predicted amount of attempts. Same thing goes the other way - if attempts were a bigger factor, then Bulger would be properly higher. Plus, perhaps the stats shouldn't be even between the Defense & QBs.

Uggh. OK, this is a work in progress.


Amazing
Image

"I got this [b]killa[/b] up inside of me
I can't talk to my mother so I talk to my diary"
sPoRtZsTuD2318
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Eagle Eye
Posts: 3517
Joined: 21 Sep 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Chicago

Postby Warpigs » Sat Oct 15, 2005 12:22 am

You need to factor in injury status somehow. For instance, Roethlisberger may not play (at least that's the last I heard). Overall, I think you're playing with fire when hoping to predict human production/behavior from a formula. Plindsay's defensive rankings can be pretty accurate, but you're factoring in a team's worth of players. Overall, that accounts for a big game from one individual and a poor game from another. Overall, it all averages out. However, when you're trying to predict how an individual is going to do based on a formula, I think you're in for some bad headaches! You can't factor in all the variables that could affect production -- injuries, last-minute sicknesses, an unexpected death in the family, etc. While it's nice for conversation's sake, I wonder just how accurate you'll ever really be with something like this??
Image
Warpigs
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe RankerCafe Spotter
Posts: 3054
(Past Year: 3)
Joined: 20 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Makaveli » Sat Oct 15, 2005 12:26 am

what u need to also factor in is home field advantage and also injuries and also the PassDefense

but not a bad formula
Makaveli
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff


Posts: 107
Joined: 11 Oct 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: CaLi

Postby Challie » Sat Oct 15, 2005 11:05 am

Couple of adjustments before action this week - factored injuries in a little bit (for the QB in question and the defensive players as listed on the injury report), expected passing attempts and a home-away factor. Still, a work in progress.

Drew Bledsoe vs. NYG 19.60
Matt Hasselbeck vs. HOU 16.64
Kerry Collins vs. SDG 13.88
Carson Palmer vs. TEN 13.87
Peyton Manning vs. STL 13.72
Ben Roethlisberger vs. JAC 11.80
Mark Brunell vs. KAN 11.12
Drew Brees vs. OAK 10.88
Jake Plummer vs. NEW 10.57
Michael Vick vs. NOR 10.55
Eli Manning vs. DAL 10.37
Tom Brady vs. DEN 10.17
Anthony Wright vs. CLE 9.08
Steve McNair vs. CIN 8.16
Trent Dilfer vs. BAL 7.95
David Carr vs. SEA 7.95
Trent Green vs. WAS 7.83
Joey Harrington vs. CAR 7.73
Brian Griese vs. MIA 7.46
Aaron Brooks vs. ATL 6.71
Jake Delhomme vs. DET 6.52
Kyle Orton vs. MIN 6.24
Daunte Culpepper vs. CHI 4.86
Byron Leftwich vs. PIT 4.71
Marc Bulger vs. IND 4.54
Kelly Holcomb vs. NYJ 3.79
Vinny Testaverde vs. BUF 3.26
Gus Frerotte vs. TAM -0.12

I still have a hard time with Bulger so low and Anthony Wright so high, but you have to go with the numbers and Indy defensive stats are pretty dominant; yet seeing Frerotte with negative points predicted restores my faith a little.

I guess the only thing concrete I'd put on this is that Bledsoe really is a great start, statistically. Every factor that I added continue to raise his prospects.

Good luck in general this week.
... in my opinion, of course - but that should always go without saying.
www.bigfellas.net (home of the golf rap "On The Green")
Challie
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar

Posts: 1531
Joined: 3 Sep 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: San Diego

Postby Arlo » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:30 pm

Warpigs wrote:However, when you're trying to predict how an individual is going to do based on a formula, I think you're in for some bad headaches! You can't factor in all the variables that could affect production...

Well, even if you could, you're dealing with a chaotic system that puts a limit on predictability right off the bat...

That doesn't mean a formula like this doesn't have value, though. If it helps you make the right decision more often than you otherwise would have, you're still ahead of the game. :-)
Arlo
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerPick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 6631
Joined: 4 Jan 2002
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The 50 yard line

Next

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 2:56 hours
(and 35 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact