by Kensat30 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 1:34 pm
I dunno with Culpepper, I still think he's a big buy low candidate based on potential alone. He looks horrible right now, but he's getting Burleson back this week and he's had a very good game at home already. Not to mention he has only played 1 divisional game thus far and the rest of his games came against the NFC South (Ouch) and the Bengal's (lead NFL in turnovers last time I checked). The NFC North isn't full of defensive juggernauts.. in fact the only good defense is Chicago and that is the only tema Culpepper has faced.. and that was at Soldier Field. Just look at what Culpepper he did against the poor New Orleans D at home(his only favorable matchup thus far), he racked up 250/3 in the first half of the game!
Culpepper is on a bad team and they are likely to be passing a lot, just like Brett Favre and the Packer's. Remember how bad he started the season off? Culpepper is on pace RIGHT NOW to throw for 4,000 yards this season. He gets to face GB X 2, Det X 2, Carolina, Cleveland.. he's got some favorable matchups on the schedule.
Not to mention, he's getting goalline looks on the ground, he has a rookie WR that is maturing, his #1 WR is returning from injury, the ground game is starting to gain traction with Mewelde Moore, and Culpepper has always had the ability to rack up some points on the ground. If he can turn the TD/INT ratio around a little bit, he can still finish as a top10 QB option, maybe even top5. And if you consider that most of that would come in the 2nd half of the season, it increases his value even more going forward. For a guy that you might be able to get for Mark freaking Brunell, that is a huge buy low candidate IMO.
The real signal for things to come will be this Sunday at home versus GB. I think Minny has not only a good chance to win this game, but to put a lot of points on the board as well. Sticking with my philsophy that you should wait for 3 consecutive bad performances before you give up on a guy, this is Cpepp's last chance.
P.S. if Michael Clayton is still starting for your team, THAT is holding on too long.
P.P.S - Tony Gonzalez too
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To summarize, we all know Cpepr's not gonna finish with:
251.2 YPG, 0.8 TD, 2.4 INT =
4,000/12/38 on the season.....
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On the other hand, if he turns that around to look like:
250 YPG, 1.5 TD, 1.0 INT
= 4000/21/23, modest numbers
But add on his customary rushing totals, he could easily still be a top10, maybe even top5 QB.