I was trying to find a good way to place in Pick3 and Lucky Ladders, and after 10+ hours of work, I think I have a decent model. It uses linear regression of the 1,992 regular-season games played from 1997-2004, and uses ratings for both home and away offense and defense.
If I had these picks before Week 6 started, I would've had ten points in lucky ladders, with Cleveland at #5 being my downfall. If I had picked the Cleveland game right, I would have had the first 8 picks right, and possibly the first 9 if Indy wins tonight.
Here were my picks for the Pick3 games:
CAR-DET: 20-21 (actually 21-20) - 97.8 points
WAS-KC: 22-24 (actually 21-28) - 104.9 points
NYJ-BUF: 9-20 (actually 17-27) - 102.6 points
For a grand total of 305.3 points, which would have been 61st place.
It went 9-4 straight up so far this week. The incorrect picks were Pittsburgh, Cleveland, New England (had them winning by one), and Detroit (also had them winning by one).
A good way to compare the accuracy of these predictions is to test them against Vegas' predictions.
For 6 out of the 14 games, my predicted spread was closer than Vegas' to the outcome, but in games where my predicted spread was more than 2 points away from Vegas' predicted spread, 5 out of 7 of my spreads were closer to reality. 6 out of my 13 O/U predictions were closer to the actual O/U number than Vegas' predictions were.
Anyways, here are the week 7 predictions:
The main weaknesses are that it doesn't factor in injuries or strength of schedule. If you try to bet using these predictions, I guarantee you that you will lose money - betting wasn't the goal here.
EDIT: I updated the model by factoring in overall performance instead of just home vs. away. I did this because each team only has 2 home or away games so far, so teams who happened to get lucky and play crappy teams on the road had a biased away rating. Now, home/away ratings account for half of the total rating, and overall rating counts for the other half.
I stand firmly by my prediction of Houston's score.
Last edited by Demented Avenger on Wed Nov 30, 2005 4:23 am, edited 7 times in total.