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Mathematical Score Predictor - Week 13 (updated)

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Postby Demented Avenger » Wed Oct 26, 2005 6:18 pm

Last week was bad for my predictions... 8-6 straight up and 7-7 against the spread. My spread was closer than Vegas' for only 4 out of the 14 games, much worse than the 8 out of 14 I had in week 6.

Didn't want to make a new thread for this, so here's my week 8 predictions.

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Postby Demented Avenger » Sat Nov 12, 2005 5:56 am

Week 10:

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I'm 9-2-1 so far against the spread on games where my predictions differ by 6 or more points from the Vegas predictions. Ironically, the 2 losses both came from over-valuing the Browns.
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Postby Mercer Boy » Sat Nov 12, 2005 6:54 am

Interesting predictions again! :-) I especially like the 49ers getting 2 safties against Chicago while also allowing 30 points. :-b

So it looks like I should pick up John Kasay this week for Shayne Graham's bye...26 points would be 2 TD's and 4 FG's! 8-o

(That's probably who I was going to pick up anyway...the jets give up around 2 FG's a game, and the Panthers should be able to handle NY at home. ;-D)
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Postby Demented Avenger » Mon Nov 14, 2005 7:26 pm

Finally, a good week for Pick3 - I'm 4th place going into the Monday Night game. ;-D

EDIT: Well, I was one point off the Dallas game, so it looks like a first place finish! The machines have won!

And Mercer Boy, you can't look at the score of 4 and assume it's 2 safeties - the model doesn't factor in the fact that certain NFL scores are more likely. I guess you can interpret 4 as a 33% chance of being 6 and a 66% chance of being 3.
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Postby Demented Avenger » Wed Nov 16, 2005 4:15 am

Week 11:

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Postby danleroi22 » Wed Nov 16, 2005 7:56 am

wow... I've been tracking this and last week's games were xtremely accurate!!!!

I guess a machine can be better than a man...

great work!!!
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Postby WickedSmaat » Wed Nov 16, 2005 11:13 pm

Maybe I should just throw in these scores instead of trying to guess my own ;) I pretty much got the toilet last week. Was dead last going into the monday night game. Interesting enough, this stuff is very interesting on how it works. It's starting to snow and getting windier. Does your model factor in weather as far as part of the season? Like the second half of the year being so many degrees cooler?
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Postby Demented Avenger » Thu Nov 17, 2005 2:18 am

WickedSmaat wrote:Maybe I should just throw in these scores instead of trying to guess my own ;) I pretty much got the toilet last week. Was dead last going into the monday night game. Interesting enough, this stuff is very interesting on how it works. It's starting to snow and getting windier. Does your model factor in weather as far as part of the season? Like the second half of the year being so many degrees cooler?


Nope, it takes nothing into account but those 7 or so statistics and scores in the last 8 years. Getting first was extremely lucky, though, as I don't think it's placed at all in the 3 other weeks.
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Postby Demented Avenger » Wed Nov 30, 2005 4:22 am

Got in the 30's in Pick3 last week, and in the top 10 for lucky ladders.

Here's week 13's predictions:

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