Ok, I inserted all the defensive and schedule data into a database and cranked it out myself. I plan to create 2 reports from this: One that is for QB/WR based on remaining strength of schedule and one that fro RB based on remaining strength of schedule.
I have completed the RB data and will add the QB/WR data later.
Here are the raw numbers. They show that the Dolphins have the most favorable rushing matchups between week 7 and week 16. On the flipside, the Falcons face the toughest rushing schedule ahead of them.
The REM_SCHED_RUSH_SCORING number is meant to project the average rushing fantasy points per week for the rest of the fantasy season based on the performances of the defenses they have yet to meet. It does not measure the teams ability to run the ball, merely the relative competence of the defenses to stop it. It is based on 1 pt. for each 10 rushing yards and 6 pts. for each rushing td.
So the only factors in the calculation are the average rushing yds given up by a defense and the average number of touchdowns given up by a defense for defenses that each team has yet to play the rest of the fantasy season.
Here is the actual SQL that I used just fyi (it won't make a whole lot of sense, but it may give you an idea what I'm doing):
select a.name,(sum(c.ru_y_all) / (16 - count(1)) / count(1) / 10) + (sum(c.ruTDa)
/ (16 - count(1)) / count(1) * 6) as rem_sched_rush_scoring
from teams a, schedules b, defensive_stats c
where a.team_id = b.team_id
and b.opponent = c.team_id
and b.week between 7 and 16
group by a.name
order by 2 desc
I'm totally open to criticism/comments/suggestions and would like to add more factors and weighting into the formula.
You can see that this formula will get more accurate at predicting as the season goes on and the average defensive performances level out.
RIDERS OF THE STORM
RB Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Lesean McCoy
WR Brandon Marshall, Kenny Britt
DEF Flavor of the Week
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