::Calling All Stat Junkies!!:: SoS

[saundman2000]

Strength of Schedule
------------------------
Does anybody know of a Strength of Schedule posting/link that is based on current defensive rankings and covers the remainder of the season?

All the ones I see are based on projections at the beginning of the season and based on last years ending defensive rankings.

Anything you have along these lines would be appreciated. I'm trying to think about which teams/players will have it easy or tough down the stretch and through the fantasy playoffs.

[BrutallyHuge]

I don't have that, but hopefully this might help.

http://www.nflfreaks.com/Fantasy_Footba ... /index.htm

[josebach]

I don't think you're going to find this. I assume you want this information to compare two or more possible players for the remainder of the year. What I do is open a window with each players remaining schedule and then open another window with this year's defensive stats. I then go down the stat page for each game played by each player and determine which player has the most favorable schedule. It's a little work, but totally worth it. I do this every time I consider picking up a free agent or accepting/requesting a trade.


Passing D:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/statistic ... 5&season=2

Rushing D:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/statistic ... 5&season=2

[footballchick23]

I'm sure you've seen this one, but it's based on opponents total losses and wins.

http://www.theredzone.org/strength.asp

[saundman2000]

Thanks guys. Those links are good. It would be cool to find something like Joseback is talking about that is already worked out for you.

I know that on the http://www.footballguys.com they have a weekly strength of schedule posting and it's even divided up by position. However I'm not subscribed..

Anyone have access to something similar?

[jjigglers]

I created one, but I don't know how accurate it is.

[saundman2000]

I created one, but I don't know how accurate it is.

Care to share it?

[jjigglers]

Sure, give me a few days to finalize the formatting and stuff (it's really rough right now).

Unless you want instant results, PM me with your league settings (? points per ?, and what weeks the playoffs are)

[saundman2000]

Ok, I inserted all the defensive and schedule data into a database and cranked it out myself. I plan to create 2 reports from this: One that is for QB/WR based on remaining strength of schedule and one that fro RB based on remaining strength of schedule.

I have completed the RB data and will add the QB/WR data later.
Here are the raw numbers. They show that the Dolphins have the most favorable rushing matchups between week 7 and week 16. On the flipside, the Falcons face the toughest rushing schedule ahead of them.

NAME REM_SCHED_RUSH_SCORING
------------------- ----------------------
Dolphins 17.0233333
Chiefs 15.76
Lions 15.5483333
Raiders 14.63
Browns 14.5983333
Cardinals 14.49
Redskins 14.1766667
Ravens 14.16
Patriots 13.968254
Rams 13.9095238
Colts 13.8698413
Jaguars 13.8047619
Texans 13.8016667
Eagles 13.7816667
Packers 13.5766667
Giants 13.5616667
Jets 13.4920635
Panthers 13.3
49ers 13.2516667
Steelers 13.2283333
Bears 12.9583333
Broncos 12.6301587
Buccaneers 12.515873
Titans 12.4492063
Bills 12.3888889
Seahawks 12.2888889
Vikings 12.2066667
Chargers 12.1730159
Saints 11.8444444
Bengals 11.0396825
Cowboys 10.6571429
Falcons 10.352381

The REM_SCHED_RUSH_SCORING number is meant to project the average rushing fantasy points per week for the rest of the fantasy season based on the performances of the defenses they have yet to meet. It does not measure the teams ability to run the ball, merely the relative competence of the defenses to stop it. It is based on 1 pt. for each 10 rushing yards and 6 pts. for each rushing td.

So the only factors in the calculation are the average rushing yds given up by a defense and the average number of touchdowns given up by a defense for defenses that each team has yet to play the rest of the fantasy season.

Here is the actual SQL that I used just fyi (it won't make a whole lot of sense, but it may give you an idea what I'm doing):

select a.name,(sum(c.ru_y_all) / (16 - count(1)) / count(1) / 10) + (sum(c.ruTDa)
/ (16 - count(1)) / count(1) * 6) as rem_sched_rush_scoring
from teams a, schedules b, defensive_stats c
where a.team_id = b.team_id
and b.opponent = c.team_id
and b.week between 7 and 16
group by a.name
order by 2 desc
;


I'm totally open to criticism/comments/suggestions and would like to add more factors and weighting into the formula.

You can see that this formula will get more accurate at predicting as the season goes on and the average defensive performances level out.

[Always a winner]

I'm building a new fantasy football website, and a big part of what I'm doing involves projections based on strength of schedule.

Fantasy Football Calculator
http://www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com/

The Projections page ranks all the players by their projected fantasy points for whatever range of weeks you want to look at (Week 7, Fantasy Regular Season, Fantasy Playoffs, etc.). It can be customized to different scoring systems also. The projections account for the difficulty of opponents already played as well as the future opponent.

A lot of the site is still being built, but the projections are good.