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FF success....Luck or Skill??

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FF success....Luck or Skill??

Postby 204BC » Tue Oct 25, 2005 9:31 am

I’ve seen the subject brought up on this site before as to whether success in FF has more to do with skill and knowledge or luck. Well, I’ve usually been an advocate that it is 80% skill and knowledge and 20% luck. I have now changed my mind.

I am in 3 leagues this year, two of which I pay minimal attention to as they are public leagues. In those two I am doing well. I am in first place in one at 6-1, second in scoring, and in third in the other at 5-2, also second in scoring. The other one however, is with people I know and therefore is more important to me. It is a 14 team league with people I work with. If you lose, you have to listen to the other guy brag all week as well as hear smack talk from your next opponent.

Here’s my situation. I’m the number one scoring team in the league. The closest guy to me is 70 points behind. Some teams in our league only score 70 points a week if you want to put that in perspective. I am, sad to say, in 8th place. I started 3-0 and am now 3-4. In three of the last four games that I lost, the guy who beat me was the only one that I would not have beaten that particular week, including this last week, which I lost by 1 point. In the other loss, only one other person had more points. So out of 13 possible opponents, I end up playing the one person that could beat me. If I faced any of the other twelve I could still be undefeated. I’m averaging 138 points per game and have lost all four of my games by a combined total of 11 points. The team that is in first place is 6-1. He ranks 9th out of 14 in scoring. I have not faced him yet and looking back I would have beaten him every week so far, but with the way things are going, the week I face him will be the one week that he outscores me. I am officially flip flopping my position on this subject. FF is 80% luck, 20% knowledge and skill.
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Postby Pete123444 » Tue Oct 25, 2005 9:36 am

lol.

Been there.

You'll come back to the 80/20 you originnally had.

lol. ff you gotta love it!
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Postby 204BC » Tue Oct 25, 2005 9:43 am

I just realized I should have put this in the "Cheering and Venting" forum. Sorry about that.
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Postby footballchick23 » Tue Oct 25, 2005 9:44 am

No matter how much you know (or think you know), there's still that unpredictable element that all of us FF players are at the mercy of! You have that one week where you score more than anyone else in your league and then the next week, you lose to the worst team in the league and barely break the 40 pt mark!

Aaaah...fantasy football....gotta love it!
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Postby 204BC » Tue Oct 25, 2005 9:48 am

The fewest I've scored in this league is 122. I haven't had a "bad" week yet, just bad luck.
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Postby deacon » Tue Oct 25, 2005 9:48 am

I think it is both equally! It is 80/20 skill in picking your players and 80/20 luck in having them perform and having a good head to head matchup.

In one league I am in (14 man) there is a guy with the 3rd lowest amount of points, yet he is in second place with a 6-1 record. It seems whenever someone plays him they score their lowest pt total of the year. He beat me 3 wks ago by 2pts and other than that game my lowest points scored is higher than his highest points scored. Basically I would have beaten him every other week except the week I played him and that is the way it has been for everyone that has played him. He finally lost his first game last week.

The bottom line is you pick a team based on probability. It is probable that LT will give you 25-30 pts each week but there is the chance that he will be held to 7yds rushing the same week the person you are playing has Clinton Portis scoring his first tds (3) of the season. Sure on paper your team looks great but as we all know 'that is why you play the game'.
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Postby Wesley Walker » Tue Oct 25, 2005 9:54 am

204BC wrote:I just realized I should have put this in the "Cheering and Venting" forum. Sorry about that.


You may have noticed, but EVERY post, beyond a shadow of a doubt, belongs in a different forum.
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Postby George_Foreman » Tue Oct 25, 2005 10:12 am

FWIW, i started out my "friends" league 1-3, with the three losses coming when i had the #2 point total in the league. so yes, bad luck happens.

but now i'm happily in third place, 1 game out with the highest point total in the league. so it'll swing the other way eventually. :-)
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Re: FF success....Luck or Skill??

Postby packers04 » Tue Oct 25, 2005 10:25 am

204BC wrote:I’ve seen the subject brought up on this site before as to whether success in FF has more to do with skill and knowledge or luck. Well, I’ve usually been an advocate that it is 80% skill and knowledge and 20% luck. I have now changed my mind.

I am in 3 leagues this year, two of which I pay minimal attention to as they are public leagues. In those two I am doing well. I am in first place in one at 6-1, second in scoring, and in third in the other at 5-2, also second in scoring. The other one however, is with people I know and therefore is more important to me. It is a 14 team league with people I work with. If you lose, you have to listen to the other guy brag all week as well as hear smack talk from your next opponent.

Here’s my situation. I’m the number one scoring team in the league. The closest guy to me is 70 points behind. Some teams in our league only score 70 points a week if you want to put that in perspective. I am, sad to say, in 8th place. I started 3-0 and am now 3-4. In three of the last four games that I lost, the guy who beat me was the only one that I would not have beaten that particular week, including this last week, which I lost by 1 point. In the other loss, only one other person had more points. So out of 13 possible opponents, I end up playing the one person that could beat me. If I faced any of the other twelve I could still be undefeated. I’m averaging 138 points per game and have lost all four of my games by a combined total of 11 points. The team that is in first place is 6-1. He ranks 9th out of 14 in scoring. I have not faced him yet and looking back I would have beaten him every week so far, but with the way things are going, the week I face him will be the one week that he outscores me. I am officially flip flopping my position on this subject. FF is 80% luck, 20% knowledge and skill.



I also started off 3-0 and now am 3-4, I am the highest scoring team but easily have the highest scored against me, this and the fact that injuries have killed me is why I'm on a 4 game losing streak, I still feel I'll get into the playoffs....I really dont see how this team can't make the playoffs!!!


QB - Marc Bulger, Ben Roethlisberger
WR - Randy Moss, Hines Ward, Joey Galloway, Kevin Curtis, Travis Taylor
RB - Shaun Alexander, Priest Holmes, Domanick Davis
TE - Jason Witten, Ben Troupe
K - Jeff Reed
DEF - Buffalo Bills, Buccaneers
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Postby The_Dude » Tue Oct 25, 2005 10:26 am

The answer to this question is so obvious...

Fantasy football is luck when you're losing and skill when you're winning. ;-D
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