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QB Forumla - predictions Week 8

Postby Challie » Tue Oct 25, 2005 6:14 pm

This thing is slowly improving, I'm reducing the average margin of error pretty well as I go along, but this is FAR from reliable.

Disclaimer: Work in progress, here to provoke thought, get thoughts on possible factors in a QB algorithm, and whatever else. Don't base too much on this. All this does is show what the past numbers would try to predict, obviously, each player won't score those numbers. When a QB goes off for 4 TDs, their scores would be huge, but there's very little way that this formula can call that kind of a shot in advance based on previous averages.

Orignal Week: http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/foru ... 86#1216886

Scoring based on:
Pass & Rush TDs = 6 pts
50 Pass Yards = 1 pt
20 Rush Yards = 1 pt
Int & Fumble Lost = -2 pts

Factors Used:
YPG, Attempts, PPA (including yards lost via sacks), turnovers, TDs for both the QB and the opposing D. Home vs. away. Injuries for QB's off unit & the opposing D unit (based on official NFL injury list). Past opponents rank/strength of schedule played is not involved. I'm toying around with the Vegas line as a predictable factor.

Here goes nothing for this week (I'll update this later in the week for latest injury report, for now, I'll stick with #s from last week's injury report).

Carson Palmer vs. GNB 14.15
Kelly Holcomb vs. NEW 13.47
Chris Simms vs. SFO 12.93
Byron Leftwich vs. STL 12.09
Donovan McNabb vs. DEN 11.22
Mark Brunell vs. NYG 10.83
*Steve McNair vs. OAK 10.76
Kerry Collins vs. TEN 10.61
Jake Delhomme vs. MIN 10.43
Drew Brees vs. KAC 10.35
Ben Roethlisberger vs. BAL 10.19
Eli Manning vs. WAS 10.00
@Marc Bulger vs. JAC 9.97
Trent Dilfer vs. HOU 9.92
Drew Bledsoe vs. ARI 9.84
Daunte Culpepper vs. CAR 9.32
Jake Plummer vs. PHI 9.21
Aaron Brooks vs. MIA 9.07
Tom Brady vs. BUF 8.31
Trent Green vs. SDG 8.18
*Billy Volek vs. OAK 8.16
Brett Favre vs. CIN 8.08
Gus Frerotte vs. NOR 7.84
Josh McCown vs. DAL 7.79
David Carr vs. CLE 6.72
Kyle Orton vs. DET 5.22
Jeff Garcia vs. CHI 5.00
@Jamie Martin vs. JAC 3.66
Anthony Wright vs. PIT 3.55
Alex Smith vs. TAM -3.11

Not too many wild surprises (except for Holcomb & Simms up there but QBs with fewer games played have less reliable stats)
... in my opinion, of course - but that should always go without saying.
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Postby s0meguy » Tue Oct 25, 2005 9:26 pm

How is Favre so low? He's the #1 QB in my league right now and the Bengals pass D isn't anything to write home about.
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Postby jjigglers » Tue Oct 25, 2005 11:04 pm

here's mine for what it's worth

Code: Select all
TM    OPP   PTS
CIN   GB    16.47
PHI   DEN   14.87
WAS   NYG   14.30
OAK   TEN   12.79
JAX   STL   12.75
TEN   OAK   12.47
GB    CIN   12.12
CAR   MIN   12.10
TB    SanF  11.92
SanD  KC    11.81
DEN   PHI   10.55
MIN   CAR   10.42
CLE   HOU   10.35
NYG   WAS    9.98
STL   JAX    9.34
BUF   NE     9.25
DAL   ARZ    8.74
NE    BUF    8.68
NO    MIA    8.31
KC    SanD   8.17
MIA   NO     8.11
ARI   DAL    7.59
PIT   BAL    7.37
HOU   CLE    7.10
BAL   PIT    5.89
CHI   DET    5.45
DET   CHI    5.08
SanF  TB     2.77
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Postby Challie » Tue Oct 25, 2005 11:26 pm

s0meguy wrote:How is Favre so low? He's the #1 QB in my league right now and the Bengals pass D isn't anything to write home about.

Well, I can't speak for jjigglers formula (good job, jigglers, btw), but here's some things that I think keep Favre's projected numbers down (as always, who knows how predictable any of this really is yet - he could just as easily throw 3 TDs this week as anybody).

* Cincy has only given up 6 pass TDs to go with 15 INTs and 8 recovered fumbles.
* The game is at Cincy, which is factored in.
* The algorithm I've got, it quantifies the amount of players on the injury list (and more heavily for WRs on the list). These numbers are still using last week's injury list. I imagine he even takes a slight downtick when I update that later in the week based on league injury reports.
* Favre is #1 in fantasy points, yes, but the Top 10 fantasy QBs are pretty tightly bunched - Cincy's defense is probably a not-too-distant 2nd to Tampa as the toughest fantasy defense vs. the pass.

It's interesting, I wouldn't have thought of this myself. That's what I like about trying to develop this formula. Of course it's not going to be right all the time, but it gets me looking at things twice that I would have taken for granted.
... in my opinion, of course - but that should always go without saying.
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