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Does the hot/trendy play ever work out??

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Does the hot/trendy play ever work out??

Postby Jarney » Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:59 pm

I have been up against quite a losing streak (6 losses in a row). I have made by far the most moves in the league. I feel like I am always a week behind. For example, last week everyone was throwing Finneran's name around and Cedric Benson's. This week it is Matt Jones. Seeing foxsports' projection made me laugh out loud http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/weekly ... e=WR&wk=11

Anyway, I am curious what everybody thinks about the "trendy" play that everyone picks up. Does anyone have any tips for sorting out the real from the fake? It just seems like nothing has been going like it should. For example, Manning versus the Vikings, that hurt me. Anyway, maybe this is just the reality of fantasy football and I am little shocked by it as a first year player.
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Postby theimitator » Wed Nov 16, 2005 9:13 pm

well, Gado worked out pretty well for me last week.

I also got burned by Eli. And with Bulger on my bench. Shame on me! Seemed like a good idea at the time...

Anyway, from these two examples, you can see that it's just calculated risks and educated guesses that might lead to a win. That's why the pros play the games every Sunday, and that's why the number one guy in your league can lose to the dude in last.

As they say on Wall Street, past history does not guarantee future success...

So, in conclusion, to directly answer your question: yeah, sometimes.
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Postby maddog60 » Wed Nov 16, 2005 9:31 pm

Ok, someone is asleep at the wheel with those projections. They've got SA getting 2 receiving yards with 0 receptions.

I don't know that I'd hop on the Matt Jones gravy train just yet, but he could emerge a bit more in this later half.
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Postby lmcjaho » Wed Nov 16, 2005 9:36 pm

Joey Galloway has worked pretty well for me since I picked him up when he was Hot back at the start of the season...
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Postby Blitzburgh2001 » Wed Nov 16, 2005 9:43 pm

Its 50/50.

Was Wilford a good play last week after 2 solid outings? Sure. Did he deliver? No way.

Is Samkon Gado a hot trendy play this week? You betcha. Does that mean he will continue his success after teams have 2 weeks of film on him? Maybe. Maybe not...

Will Matt Jones step up and continue his development as the #1 threat in Jacksonville? Hey, wasn't Wilford supposed to do that?

Will there be people starting Heath Evans this week? Oh yeah. Will he let them down? Probably.

Did Scottie Vines lead te NFL in passes intended for him in Week 9? 17 looks; the next closest was 14. How many catches last week? 2 for a whole 16 yards.

Stick with solid proven guys at your key positions. Save the trendy stuff for you felx spots and/or your #3 Wr or #3 Rb.
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Postby Atog » Wed Nov 16, 2005 10:53 pm

I gotta pick up Matt Jones!
6 carries for 40 yards!? Time for a position change ;-D
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Postby Jarney » Wed Nov 16, 2005 11:25 pm

Hahahahaha. That 6 carries for 40 yards part is the best.

I agree about using the 3rd spot (WR or Flex) for a riskier/trendier play is best. It seems like for me even pretty solid plays keep killing me. Tampa Bay D vs. SF . . . Caddy vs. SF . . . Manning vs. Minny. I've had two weeks in a row where only two players on my teams get TDs! And my roster doesn't seem that bad . . .

QBs = Brunell, Eli Manning
WRs = Burress, C.Johnson, Matt Jones, Wilford
RBs = Tiki, LJ, Gado, Marion Barber (the latter three are recent acquisitions -- all after their huge days)
TEs = Shockey, LJ Smith
K = Jason Elam (recent acquisition)
D = Chicago, Denver (recent acquisition)
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Postby Matthias » Wed Nov 16, 2005 11:46 pm

the hot play is always the right play... until it isn't.

it's like how broadcasters use the term "momentum" ... it's always good to have and can change at any time. but it's all self-definitional. the way they define you having momentum is by you doing well, so when you stop doing well, they say that you've lost your momentum. and then blame you not doing well on you not having momentum.

my gut take on it is that players and teams have statistical expectations which they can deviate from on occasion. and just because matt jones had a huge week this week doesn't make me a believer in him this week. you missed it, accept it, move on. if you do want to try to ride the hot hand, then pick up someone who had a big game, leave them on your bench, and see if the big game was indicative of something bigger. but don't expect lighting to hit in the same spot twice. in that way lies failure & frustration.
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Postby Jarney » Thu Nov 17, 2005 12:12 am

Good advice Matthias . . . My indecisiveness/lack of patience has killed me this year.

Does anyone have any predictions for who might be the biggest bust this week out of all the hot plays or high projections?

I personally am hoping that one of them isn't Denver's D vs. NYJ.
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Postby KoopaTroopa211 » Thu Nov 17, 2005 12:35 am

Nothing but good luck here. I got 3 good weeks out of Willie Parker, a week out of Marion Barber, and a stellar week out of Johnson-MIN, Gage, and Johnson-AZ.
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