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Winning at Fantasy Football is %100 luck!!!!!

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Winning at Fantasy Football is %100 luck!!!!!

Postby johnrambo » Sun Nov 20, 2005 8:11 am

I rember when we did our first FF draft. I don't remeber the year but I do remember it was the last year my team was not plauged by injurys and suspensions. My first 3 picks in order B.Sanders, D.Mario and J.Rice. Those were the days. It was the last and only year I had a winning record, most pts, or won the superbowl. We had 12 football geeks and played for $25 per team. Man how the times have change; now we play for $500 per team and we have 14 teams every year. Most teams have mutiple owners that work at the same place, good freinds, married etc. Not me, I just fork over the five hundred every year to some schmuck that drafts like a panzy. Half the prize pool for the most pts and the other half to the Super Bowl Champ. It is so frustrating when you draft a team that makes you laugh when looking at you roster and lose because some no name goes off ever week on the other team.

Fantasy Football victories are 100% luck. To prove my points the team that is undefeated in my league took K.Collins thats right K.Collins #8 overall and C.Brown in the second round. You could imagine what runners were left when Brown was taken. His team is at the bottom of barrel in points scored and he has not lost a game.

So you can say that skill is invoved in the draft and weekly matchups, and you would be right. But all the preperations means nothing when New England says Dillon will start or is active and has zero touches, LT rushes for 20yards, or some guy named Samkon rushes for 3 scores in Atlanta. You can never account for A.Bryant to have 80 yards and 2 TDs in the final two minutes to singlehandedly outscore Randy and TO in two minutes of play.

With all this said, I enjoy playing fantasy football and will continue to play. I just won't take it serious because in reality we should just put the $500 in a hat and draw straws longest gets half and shortest gets half.
" Who can make a play? T.O. can make a play." T.Owens
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Postby ateam » Sun Nov 20, 2005 8:52 am

As long as you control your draft, your lineup, and your transactions that is a false statement.

I'm a financial planner in the real world, and I will compare it to managing a portfolio.

Sure what the markets do are out of my control (as are the games), however, I take alot of art and science factoring in many variables to achieve optimal returns within appropriate risk paramaters. The end results (which are generally constant) comes from my decisions more than anything else. Then it's mainly a matter of making sure clients don't make bad timing decisions----ala dumping Porter who has underperformed just before hitting TEN/KC on the schedule.

Luck is a minor part of the equation.

Last year was my first year, I won the league.

This year I'm in 2 leagues:

9-1 with a 3 game lead.

5-5 on a 3 game streak in a 14 teamer, where I lost my top 2 RBs and WRs to injury, I'm now a game out of 1st in a league of parity thus far.


You make your own luck. ;-D
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Postby SwiperNoSwiping » Sun Nov 20, 2005 9:01 am

While I agree that you can't 100% predict the outcomes of the games and stats a player will accumulate, I do disagree to a degree.

There are players that are more likely to be successful than others given a specific situation. By playing them improves your chances to win.

So, I think part of it's luck, but certainly not entirely.
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Postby johnrambo » Sun Nov 20, 2005 9:15 am

mabe luck doesn't play as big a factor as i stated early or maybe i have been unluckly year after year. if you win your competive league then you got extremely lucky. you my like to think that you are FF guru but you are not, noone is. i have been 15 - 40pts favorite everygame this year and lost half of them. luck is invovled in determining the draft order and the players weekly performaces. everyone has access to the same information so if you can read you should start the right guys week after week. the people on this forum that think they are pros at FF either 1) play with a entire league of idoits or 2) take credit for having a golden horseshoe up their ass.
" Who can make a play? T.O. can make a play." T.Owens
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Postby bruuno2 » Sun Nov 20, 2005 9:30 am

No,not 100%luck.I say 90% ;-D
10%=good draft,FA pickups,just paying attention.
That's how i c it. :-°
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Postby ateam » Sun Nov 20, 2005 9:40 am

johnrambo wrote:mabe luck doesn't play as big a factor as i stated early or maybe i have been unluckly year after year. if you win your competive league then you got extremely lucky. you my like to think that you are FF guru but you are not, noone is. i have been 15 - 40pts favorite everygame this year and lost half of them. luck is invovled in determining the draft order and the players weekly performaces. everyone has access to the same information so if you can read you should start the right guys week after week. the people on this forum that think they are pros at FF either 1) play with a entire league of idoits or 2) take credit for having a golden horseshoe up their ass.


While I've conceded that "luck" is part of the equation, I will tell you that your last statement can't be true.

Both leagues that I play in have been doing it for years (not idiots). I can't have a horseshoe up my ass at 5-5, not when Deuce is my top pick and my next best RB is JJ, and WRs DJax/Horn. But since then I've worked the WW exceptionally and made some decent trades to put my team in a great position to defend my title----after starting out 2-5.

For the record, I had ABryant in my lineup when he scored those 18 or so points vs. Bears----too bad I lost by a touchdown that week though.

If you polled the other 13 GMs in my league, they'd have to concede that I had the worst luck in the league. Now I have a roster in a 14 team league with all skill players taken in first 5 rounds (including 5 WRs that start), so I've taken lemons and made lemonaid. :-D
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Postby VaderFin » Sun Nov 20, 2005 9:45 am

Only people who are losing would make such a silly statement. :-b

Luck is definitely involved. 100%? Hardly. :-t
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Postby Howie » Sun Nov 20, 2005 9:51 am

VaderFin wrote:Only people who are losing would make such a silly statement. :-b


That's because people who are winning will always say its due to skill. ;-)
Last edited by Howie on Sun Nov 20, 2005 3:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby 4Pack » Sun Nov 20, 2005 10:17 am

While the game is not 100% luck...I do believe it is at least 75% luck. While I consider myself to be a pretty good fantasy manager...I have seen loaded teams falter and crap teams thrive in way too many instances to believe that managerial skills are the biggest factor in a teams success/failures.
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Postby stoner420 » Sun Nov 20, 2005 10:19 am

This is my first losing season and before this year i wouldve disagreed but honestly: through 10 weeks into the season i was 3-7 with the top pts in the league... had two losses by less than 1 pt... and i looked at another team that was 5-5... if i had that guys schedule id be 9-1. The football gods hate me.
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