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Postby Warhawk » Mon Nov 21, 2005 5:16 pm

black_hawk8888 wrote:
hastur wrote:
whoseyourdaddy12 wrote:hmm whereed blackhawk's list go


I loved that list by blackhawk, as you can see ;-D


Your wish is my command.........

http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/foru ... mmandments

Obey all ye sinners.

Commandment #10 - Thou shall not draft Fred Taylor, for surely he shall teaseth the faithful with a great and wonderous performance, fleeing before his pursuers like a scalded cheetah, catching the ball and visiting the holy land of the endzone many times - before landing upon the injured reserve with a bruised taint. He shall be banished to the land of the “Day to Day”.

Commandment #9 - Thou shalt not draft Jamal Lewis, for surely by the end of the year he shall consummate the coke deal he hath starteth and wear striped the robes of the State with a very a long number branded across the front.

Commandment #8 - Thou shalt not draft Randy Moss, for being a Raider from the impure and polluted land called Oakland, is a scum bag of Biblical proportions and, like…Dude…he’s probably completely freakin’ stoned out of his mind and tokin' it up in the locker room as I sayeth this commandment.

Commandment #7 - Thou shalt not take the graven image of the Cardinal and their golden preseason record seriously. Drinketh NOT from the golden chalice of red koolaid peddled by thine local fishwraps, talking heads and sportshacks, for, despite playing the weakest, puniest and most pathetic division in the land, the Cardinals shall surely sucketh donkey member.

Commandment #6 - Forget not that the stadia of the great Bear, the fierce Bengal, the ferocious Lion are as colonies of lepers and draft from them sparingly.

Commandment #5 -Thou shalt not draft quarterbacks from among the sons of the distant lands known as the Big Ten, for they lie with their own mothers.

Commandment #4 - Thou shalt not spill thy manly seed on the sand like the Redskin, Viking or Packer for they are an abomination of mediocrity, despite the fervor of their true believers.

Commandment #3 - Speak in revered and hushed tones of THE GREAT ONE… BLESSED BE HE, Bill Belichick, for he has been anointed as the “official NFL genius of all geniuses”. His record at Cleveland, the home of the foul, smelly brown ones, shall be expunged and never mentioned in HIS presence. Thou needn’t throw thyself to thine knees in the presence of past “official NFL genius of all geniuses”, such as Bill “Spittle” Cowher and The Great White Tuna, Bill Parcells.

Commandment #2 - Thou shalt not play for silver shekels with thine friends and acquaintances known and unknown, for they are known to be penniless, rat bastards having deep pockets and short arms. So sayeth THE UNPAID!

Commandment #1 - Thou shall not darken the doorway of thy home field with the progeny of the sun devil, for surely they moan and whine like the newborn suckling pig (Todd Heap), murder thy teammate and seek a lesser sentence before his judge (Loren Wade), and shall impregnate thy favorite canine (JR Redmon) whilst stealing from your purse and throwing many an interception (Jake). THOU SHALL NOT HAVE ANY sun devil UPON THY ROSTER!

SO LET IT BE WRITTEN, SO LET IT BE DONE!



Hmm...

Lets review:

#10 - Yeah, I got hit by this one.

#9 - This one too.

#8 - I managed to avoid this one.

#7 - Fitz, Boldin, and Rackers basically shot this one to hell.

#6 - Bears D, TJ, CJ, RJ, CP, and even the other TJ basically shot this one very far into hell.

#5 - Want me to list them? Dallas Clark, Larry Johnson, Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn, Tom Brady, Jay Feely, Amani Toomer, Plaxico Burress, Derrick Mason, Mushin Muhammed, and Neil bloody Rackers. You don't wanna draft them, fine, I'll take em.

#4 - *cough*

#3 - Suuuuure.

#2 - Agreed!

#1 - This season is Jake Plummer's giant middle finger pointed straight at this list.
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Postby black_hawk8888 » Mon Nov 21, 2005 5:47 pm

Warhawk wrote:Hmm...

Lets review:

#10 - Yeah, I got hit by this one.

#9 - This one too.

#8 - I managed to avoid this one.

#7 - Fitz, Boldin, and Rackers basically shot this one to hell.

#6 - Bears D, TJ, CJ, RJ, CP, and even the other TJ basically shot this one very far into hell.

#5 - Want me to list them? Dallas Clark, Larry Johnson, Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn, Tom Brady, Jay Feely, Amani Toomer, Plaxico Burress, Derrick Mason, Mushin Muhammed, and Neil bloody Rackers. You don't wanna draft them, fine, I'll take em.

#4 - *cough*

#3 - Suuuuure.

#2 - Agreed!

#1 - This season is Jake Plummer's giant middle finger pointed straight at this list.


It was actually put together by one of my buddies as a joke before the 2003 season but I dredged it back up for laughs. Wasn't to be taken very seriously like true rules of thumb for FF. Supposed to be good for a laugh but thanks for the analysis - goes to show that humor is just distorted truth that makes us laugh.......... ;-D
Last edited by black_hawk8888 on Mon Nov 21, 2005 5:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby maddog60 » Mon Nov 21, 2005 5:49 pm

Matthias wrote:
maddog60 wrote:In fantasy football, its usually not a good idea to base your opinion of a player's performance on injuries, save those that are known for being injured.


rb's are a known injury risk. the number of snaps that peyton manning has missed, in his career, due to injury: one. so fine, you can say that an rb getting injured is a lottery, but i say that if you had drafted peyton, you don't have to play in it.


While some players are more prone to injury, RBs on a whole are more prone to major injury than QBs. Also, broken legs/arms, the kind of stuff that takes a guy out for the year, you can't predict that happening, and it could just as easily happen to Manning as it could any other QB.

maddog60 wrote:Priest Holmes, it was conventional wisdom that you had to spend a 5th or 6th rounder to make sure you coupled him with Larry Johnson


yep. and the conventional wisdom was wrong as the drafts i was in lj was gone, at the latest, by the first 3 picks of the 5th round. if you had waited until then to get your handcuff, you were pooched.


As I said 5th or 6th. Most of the time Priest went within for first 4 picks, so you most likely had one of those first 3 5th rounders, and on an average he went 5.09 in 12 team leagues, so it was very easy to acquire him on average. So more often than not, you weren't screwed by waiting till the 5th.

maddog60 wrote:Also, very few if any people were suggesting Ahman Green in the 1st round, he was more of a mid to late 2nd rounder. Dominick Davis still average over 100 total yards a game, so is Willis McGahee, and from guys that were typical late 1st rounders, that's not a disappointment. Clinto Portis fits in with these guys, but he was more typically a 2nd rounder than a 1st.


but these are all 1st round possibilities: known rb starters in a non-rbbc situation. and my FWP from the 12th round has outperformed nearly all of them.


If that's how you define 1st round possibilities you should've thrown in Tiki, C-Mart, and Rudi. Basically, just b/c a guy has been a starter before, and isn't in a RBBC does not make him a 1st round possibility.



Priest - nobody who goes down with half the season left is a "success"
Edge - success
Deuce - 1 rushing game over 100 yards and 3 TDs on the season is not a success
McGahee - fairly consistent, although TD light. success is fine.
Domanick - 600 rushing yards & 4 total TDs; success a bit much
Portis - success? mediocre other than the game he rolled over SF
Jamal - bust
KJ - bust
Barber - success
Julius Jones - averaging 80 yards, 0.6TDs, and 0.2FUMs per game (pre-injury) mediocre and going to be bad the rest of the season; not a success. disappointment.

so, after the top two, 3 successes, 2 busts, 2 injury failures (plus ahman, who was as much a 1st rounder as tiki was), 1 mediocres, and 1 disappointment. if you want to keep drafting a rb-only in the first round, hey, be my guest... but don't call it a commandment. not after this year.


I took the average top 12 RBs, Ahman didn't make the cut, so apparently Tiki was more commonly a first rounder than Ahman.

Perhaps you're measuring success differently. If I take a RB in the 1st round, I consider it a success so long as he performs like a #1 RB, that would mean top 12. Currently the 12th best RB in fantasy football is averaging 12.58 points per game. So prior to injuries:

Priest - averaged 15.28 ppg
Duece - averaged 12.64 ppg

They were succeeding at being #1 RBs. And of the other guys like:

Portis - 12.93 ppg
McGahee - 12.43 ppg
DD - 13.16 ppg
JJ (pre-injury) - 12.98 ppg

So really, what we have is 2 out of 12 guys busted, and others have only under performed b/c they've spent time being injured. Compared the guys at other positions that were even considered in the first 2 rounds:

Manning - doing well
McNabb - did well until injury finally sidelined him
Culpepper - bust
Moss - disappointment, not even top 12 WR
TO - success but out for rest of year
CJ - huge success
Holt - success, except for injuries
Marvin - success

So if I were to use your standards for successful RBs, the other positions typically drafted in the first 2 rounds, netted 3 successes, 1 bust, 1 injury failure, 1 idiot failure, 1 disappointment, and 1 mediocre. Not nearly as good a ratio as the RBs get.

I never proposed it for a commandment of fantasy football that you draft a RB in the 1st round, but if anything this year definitely supports that strategy more than anything.
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Postby foulballstrike3 » Mon Nov 21, 2005 8:25 pm

Warhawk wrote:
black_hawk8888 wrote:
hastur wrote:
whoseyourdaddy12 wrote:hmm whereed blackhawk's list go


I loved that list by blackhawk, as you can see ;-D


Your wish is my command.........

http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/foru ... mmandments

Obey all ye sinners.

Commandment #10 - Thou shall not draft Fred Taylor, for surely he shall teaseth the faithful with a great and wonderous performance, fleeing before his pursuers like a scalded cheetah, catching the ball and visiting the holy land of the endzone many times - before landing upon the injured reserve with a bruised taint. He shall be banished to the land of the “Day to Day”.

Commandment #9 - Thou shalt not draft Jamal Lewis, for surely by the end of the year he shall consummate the coke deal he hath starteth and wear striped the robes of the State with a very a long number branded across the front.

Commandment #8 - Thou shalt not draft Randy Moss, for being a Raider from the impure and polluted land called Oakland, is a scum bag of Biblical proportions and, like…Dude…he’s probably completely freakin’ stoned out of his mind and tokin' it up in the locker room as I sayeth this commandment.

Commandment #7 - Thou shalt not take the graven image of the Cardinal and their golden preseason record seriously. Drinketh NOT from the golden chalice of red koolaid peddled by thine local fishwraps, talking heads and sportshacks, for, despite playing the weakest, puniest and most pathetic division in the land, the Cardinals shall surely sucketh donkey member.

Commandment #6 - Forget not that the stadia of the great Bear, the fierce Bengal, the ferocious Lion are as colonies of lepers and draft from them sparingly.

Commandment #5 -Thou shalt not draft quarterbacks from among the sons of the distant lands known as the Big Ten, for they lie with their own mothers.

Commandment #4 - Thou shalt not spill thy manly seed on the sand like the Redskin, Viking or Packer for they are an abomination of mediocrity, despite the fervor of their true believers.

Commandment #3 - Speak in revered and hushed tones of THE GREAT ONE… BLESSED BE HE, Bill Belichick, for he has been anointed as the “official NFL genius of all geniuses”. His record at Cleveland, the home of the foul, smelly brown ones, shall be expunged and never mentioned in HIS presence. Thou needn’t throw thyself to thine knees in the presence of past “official NFL genius of all geniuses”, such as Bill “Spittle” Cowher and The Great White Tuna, Bill Parcells.

Commandment #2 - Thou shalt not play for silver shekels with thine friends and acquaintances known and unknown, for they are known to be penniless, rat bastards having deep pockets and short arms. So sayeth THE UNPAID!

Commandment #1 - Thou shall not darken the doorway of thy home field with the progeny of the sun devil, for surely they moan and whine like the newborn suckling pig (Todd Heap), murder thy teammate and seek a lesser sentence before his judge (Loren Wade), and shall impregnate thy favorite canine (JR Redmon) whilst stealing from your purse and throwing many an interception (Jake). THOU SHALL NOT HAVE ANY sun devil UPON THY ROSTER!

SO LET IT BE WRITTEN, SO LET IT BE DONE!



Hmm...

Lets review:

#10 - Yeah, I got hit by this one.

#9 - This one too.

#8 - I managed to avoid this one.

#7 - Fitz, Boldin, and Rackers basically shot this one to hell.

#6 - Bears D, TJ, CJ, RJ, CP, and even the other TJ basically shot this one very far into hell.

#5 - Want me to list them? Dallas Clark, Larry Johnson, Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn, Tom Brady, Jay Feely, Amani Toomer, Plaxico Burress, Derrick Mason, Mushin Muhammed, and Neil bloody Rackers. You don't wanna draft them, fine, I'll take em.

#4 - *cough*

#3 - Suuuuure.

#2 - Agreed!

#1 - This season is Jake Plummer's giant middle finger pointed straight at this list.


So, Dallas Clark, Larry Johnson, Galloway, Glenn, Feely, Toomer, Burress, Mason, Muhammad and Rackers are pretty good QBs?
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Postby Warhawk » Mon Nov 21, 2005 9:53 pm

Ooops, didn't see QBs there. My bad.

But still..

Tom Brady.
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Postby lsufan » Mon Nov 21, 2005 11:32 pm

Obey all ye sinners.

My yahoo league I pretty much obeyed all the rules and im in first place.

My sportingnews league is a different story. In jeopordy of lossing my 4th place spot.
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Postby KoopaTroopa211 » Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:18 am

Thou shalt not draft David Carr nor Domanick Davis, nor any other member of the Houston Texans.
KoopaTroopa211 wrote:This is a talented team that under any other circumstances would be an absolute lock for their 4th championship, but I can't shake the feeling that the push for 16-0 will in the end be the undoing of this team in the playoffs.
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Postby Matthias » Tue Nov 22, 2005 1:05 am

maddog60 wrote:While some players are more prone to injury, RBs on a whole are more prone to major injury than QBs. Also, broken legs/arms, the kind of stuff that takes a guy out for the year, you can't predict that happening, and it could just as easily happen to Manning as it could any other QB.


couple of points which were glossed over here:
(1) not all QBs are equally injury-prone. the ones that scramble alot put themselves more at risk. and if you are willing to grant that some players are more prone to injury, than you'd have to accept that other players are less prone. and over 7+ seasons, peyton has missed one snap. one.
(2) since RBs as a whole are more prone to major injury than other positions, that makes them less desirable as your first-choice commodity. to link this to vbd, say you have an rb who people project out as an X-number of 80. and then you have a player at another position who has an X-number of 75. standard vbd drafting would tell you to take the rb. but, if you figure that the rb has a 40% chance of getting injured, while the other player has only a 5% chance, then your expected/modified x-numbers become 48 & 71, against the rb. you can come up with your own percentages, but the underlying logic is clear: when looking at players who are projected to outperform their peers at a similar level, it is less risky, and therefore a better choice, to choose the non-rb player. in investment terms, if you have two securities that pay the same interest rate, one backed by the u.s. government and the other backed by an argentianian gold mine speculation company... you better pick up the u.s. bond.


maddog60 wrote:Perhaps you're measuring success differently. If I take a RB in the 1st round, I consider it a success so long as he performs like a #1 RB, that would mean top 12. Currently the 12th best RB in fantasy football is averaging 12.58 points per game. So prior to injuries:

Priest - averaged 15.28 ppg
Duece - averaged 12.64 ppg


yes. but drafting them is not a "success" if they play half or less of the season. personally, i would call that a "success" for a 5th round pick or later. not my first-rounder.

maddog60 wrote:Portis - 12.93 ppg
McGahee - 12.43 ppg
DD - 13.16 ppg
JJ (pre-injury) - 12.98 ppg


you can talk ppg all you like, but in my league, the current ranking of those players in total points are:
portis - 11
mcgahee - 13
davis - 19
jones - 30

i don't draft players for their ppg. granted, if you know they're not starting you can put in someone else so it does tell you something that total points doesn't. but, still, you draft players to put up points. and not just in a handful of games. otherwise, gado would be considered a first-round "success" under your methodology, even with his terrible night tonight.

maddog60 wrote:So really, what we have is 2 out of 12 guys busted, and others have only under performed b/c they've spent time being injured.


k. jones, jamal, deuce, and julius are all busts for the owners who drafted them. and the priest and domanick owners are not happy. so, at best, you have a 66% non-bust rate and probably 50% success rate.

maddog60 wrote:Compared the guys at other positions that were even considered in the first 2 rounds:

Manning - doing well
McNabb - did well until injury finally sidelined him
Culpepper - bust
Moss - disappointment, not even top 12 WR
TO - success but out for rest of year
CJ - huge success
Holt - success, except for injuries
Marvin - success

So if I were to use your standards for successful RBs, the other positions typically drafted in the first 2 rounds, netted 3 successes, 1 bust, 1 injury failure, 1 idiot failure, 1 disappointment, and 1 mediocre. Not nearly as good a ratio as the RBs get.


huh? ok. let's look.
manning - #1 qb in my league (you don't call that a success?)
mcnabb - #4 qb in my league until he got injured
culpepper - bust
moss - 16th rated wr; i would call disappointment similar to dd
owens - top-10 wr before getting himself thrown off the team
johnson - success
holt - still easily in top 10 wrs in total points (#6 in my league) even with injury, success
marvin - success

so calling mcnabb and owens busts (although i would say they'd be more like priest holmes since and so put in the "not happy" category), you would get 5/8 or 62.5% non-bust rate (or 87.5% w/o the 2 eagles). taking out moss as a disappointment, you get 50% success rate, exactly the same as rb's. but i still say manning is a u.s. government bond... and you should think hard next year before choosing someone like mcgahee or portis over him.
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