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Wasn't there someone who said draft WR before rb?

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Postby Matthias » Fri Dec 09, 2005 11:59 am

louisianacajunsam wrote:i have a system for drafting...i rank all my players by position and then i draw a line, seperating the elite fantasy players from the next level....but i do agree to always draft running back first...let me explain...

if i would be making my list today, i would prob do this...

qb- 1. peyton manning
2. carson palmer
..................................
3. marc bulger, etc

rb - 1.ladanian
2. shaun alex
3. edge
4. larry johnson (if no priest next year)
...............................................
5. deuce mcallister, etc

same with wr's.....

so if i had the number six pick and all of these first four top tier rb's were already drafted....then instead of taking a 2nd tier rb, i would look to a more dominate qb or wr left on the board....

maybe i would take chad johnson or carson palmer or something...

this system has worked for me..

always take best on the board...


thumbs up on the system. up with thinking. down with dogma.
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Postby onnestabe » Fri Dec 09, 2005 12:39 pm

One year can't put any strategy to rest. If you look at the WR guy's lineup versus the lineup he was comparing himself to, he loses this year, but only because Moss and Horn have battled injuries all year, TO is an a$$hole, and everyone forgot Arrington played for Arizona.

There is something to be said for targeting WRs early. If you can get two top-5 WRs that produce what you expect them to, you can build a strong team by loading up on RBs late. Looking back at this years' draft, he could have easily built this lineup with his strategy: Marvin Harrison, Chad Johnson, Heinz Ward, Palmer, Mike Anderson, Droughns, & Willie Parker. That as opposed to the lineup he listed of Moss, TO, Horn, Arrington, Caddy.

IMO, the first two to three rounds are all about risk avoidance. You want guys that are going to be slam dunks. If you try to get as many low-risk, high-reward players as possible (there aren't many), you have a good chance of having a good team. In my mind at the time, these were the guys that fell into that category this year:

Manning, McNabb, Bulger
LT, SA, Edge, JLewis
CJ, Harrison, Holt, Moss
Gates, Gonzo

There were some guys that busted out of that list - Moss, Gonzo, , Lewis, Bulger, and Holt (to a lesser degree), but finding a way to get two or three of these guys should give you a strong core to build around.

The thing about the strategies people preach (RBs first, then WRs, no QBs till round, etc.) is that they are intended to set you up to get several of these guys. In 2004, two RBs, then a QB could have gotten you LT, Tiki, and Peyton. This year, it is possible that same strategy got you LT, Lamont Jordan, and Bulger.

To expand on what Matthias said, these dogmatic strategies are followed because they have produced somewhere in the past, but they obviously don't work every time. The key is finding out what each of the strategies have in common when they do work, and creating a strategy that is your own that will exploit that commonality. louisianacajunsam seems to be on the right track with his (I just may steal it for next year ;-) ).
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Postby louisianacajunsam » Fri Dec 09, 2005 1:33 pm

i appreciate it....
i've always been my own football guru...i was commonly urged by my friends to play fantasy b/c i like football and football stats so much....
so i do believe in creating ones own list for drafting as i said....
i listed my top 25 quarterbacks, 50 running backs, and 70 wide receivers...with the tiers ranked as i had mentioned...for receiver, there was like four or five tiers....
obviously this system can be manipulated while drafting but it seems to work for me, especially in the earlier rounds (maybe 1-7).....
another thing i do agree on is taking the sure bets (or almost sure bets).....the marvin harrisons, chad johnsons, torry holts, and to a lesser extent, the rod smiths (got him late)....
b/c of the way i like sure bets and for the fact that i do create my own lists, i ranked terrell owens 15th at wr (which obviously means i just wasnt gonna get him), but i did that b/c he threatened to do exactly what he did before the season started (cause problems if he didnt get that new contract)....as well as i ranked mcnabb 8th at qb (b/c of t.o.)...glad i saw that one coming...

another good thing when drafting....dont put ur money where ur heart is....for me (well, probably everyone), never draft a saints player, plus i played some football at the university of louisiana-lafayette, so i never take my fellow boys ----jake delhomme, brandon stokley, etc...and i played with javon walker in highschool so i stay away from him....
its like bad karma or something...i just know they would burn me!
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Postby silverZ » Fri Dec 09, 2005 1:47 pm

I try to pick up one of the top 4 WR's in the 2nd or third round. Holt,CJ,Owens,Moss. Moss and Owens have been busts this year but when healthy all 4 of them are about as reliable as you can get. Add steve smith to that group next year.
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Postby FatFoot » Fri Dec 09, 2005 2:24 pm

Owens was NOT a bust this year. While he played, he was (depending on league) one of the top 2 WRs. That was a HUGE part of getting me to the playoffs.

In fact, I have to say, my WRs have been more important than my QBs or RBs in terms of points this year.

I have thought about the premise of drafting WRs early next year, but I still think you have to try to get one or 2 great RBs. So I'm inclined to say that while I'd like to try it, I'd be very concerned about not being able to field a stud RB.

T.O., Steve Smith, Kevin Curtis, etc... without these guys I wouldn't have run 1st place wire to wire, and wouldn't be the points leader.
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Postby Wizzle » Fri Dec 09, 2005 4:06 pm

I went with 3 RB's in the first 3 rounds and didnt pick a WR till round 6 in an 8 man league.

I got:
LT
DD
Deuce Mac
Collins
Gates

after that I drafted, Fitz, Chambers, Lelie...picked up Housh and Moulds off the WW. 1 scoring team in the league.
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Postby louisianacajunsam » Fri Dec 09, 2005 4:08 pm

as mentioned before, many people assumed owens would do something detrimental to his team, that would cause him to possibly get kicked off...even before the season began...i clearly remember him and rosenhaus clearly stating that if he didnt get a new contract, he would be a problem to the team...he didnt get the contract...boom....fantasy draft a week later....no way man, had to see it coming....

call him what u want...a bust or not....stupid to waste a pick on him this season
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Postby Matthias » Fri Dec 09, 2005 4:22 pm

ok, this...

Wizzle wrote:1 scoring team in the league.


has more to do with this...

Wizzle wrote: I got: LT


than this....

Wizzle wrote:I went with 3 RB's in the first 3 rounds and didnt pick a WR till round 6 in an 8 man league.

LT
DD
Deuce Mac



but the whole point here is that you can cherry-pick scenarios all day long, but what it comes down to is if you lock yourself into one, singular, never-shall-be-broken strategy, you're not using your intelligence to make sure that what you're doing is actually the best way. and there's sufficient evidence to say that making an absolute such as, "i will only ever draft a running back in the first three rounds. ever. period." is to hamper yourself and miss out on some strong upside opportunities.
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Postby PapaPark » Fri Dec 09, 2005 4:35 pm

Wizzle wrote:I went with 3 RB's in the first 3 rounds and didnt pick a WR till round 6 in an 8 man league..


Well in an 8 man league you can afford to do that.
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Postby Redskins Win » Fri Dec 09, 2005 4:42 pm

This whole debate is as old as dust. The one and only true real answer to it is -- it all depends on the level of competition.

If you're in some random public fantasy league then yeah some startegy like going WR first might possibly will work. But if you're going against really experienced managers, you're theory will bite you in the behind.
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