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Wasn't there someone who said draft WR before rb?

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Postby Matthias » Fri Dec 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Redskins Win wrote:This whole debate is as old as dust. The one and only true real answer to it is -- it all depends on the level of competition.

If you're in some random public fantasy league then yeah some startegy like going WR first might possibly will work. But if you're going against really experienced managers, you're theory will bite you in the behind.


and it's rigid thinking like this that keeps levels of competition low.
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Postby Redskins Win » Fri Dec 09, 2005 5:36 pm

Matthias wrote:
Redskins Win wrote:This whole debate is as old as dust. The one and only true real answer to it is -- it all depends on the level of competition.

If you're in some random public fantasy league then yeah some startegy like going WR first might possibly will work. But if you're going against really experienced managers, you're theory will bite you in the behind.


and it's rigid thinking like this that keeps levels of competition low.


Rigid how? Thinking that drafting a WR in first round is a bad idea or that the more experience managers are the less whacky drafting works?
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Postby Matthias » Fri Dec 09, 2005 5:41 pm

Redskins Win wrote:
Matthias wrote:
Redskins Win wrote:This whole debate is as old as dust. The one and only true real answer to it is -- it all depends on the level of competition.

If you're in some random public fantasy league then yeah some startegy like going WR first might possibly will work. But if you're going against really experienced managers, you're theory will bite you in the behind.


and it's rigid thinking like this that keeps levels of competition low.


Rigid how? Thinking that drafting a WR in first round is a bad idea or that the more experience managers are the less whacky drafting works?


rigid in thinking that there is only one method (rb, rb, rb) that is an effective drafting method. it is this (sort of) thinking that keeps level of competition low.
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Postby Redskins Win » Fri Dec 09, 2005 5:54 pm

Matthias wrote:rigid in thinking that there is only one method (rb, rb, rb) that is an effective drafting method. it is this (sort of) thinking that keeps level of competition low.


Well I didn't say there was only one. All i said was WR in first round will usually bite you in the behind.

Personally, and that means for me, drafting is all about draft position and what's available according to ones rankings.

Say in 14 team league or even 12
If you have the #1-#5 draft position and you draft a WR well that's just how do i put this, umm stoopid. Now with the #9-#14 pick and carson palmer and peyton are gone, it's a consideration.

I don't think that sounds too rigid, maybe too rational.
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Postby Matthias » Fri Dec 09, 2005 6:01 pm

Redskins Win wrote:
Matthias wrote:rigid in thinking that there is only one method (rb, rb, rb) that is an effective drafting method. it is this (sort of) thinking that keeps level of competition low.


Well I didn't say there was only one. All i said was WR in first round will usually bite you in the behind.

Personally, and that means for me, drafting is all about draft position and what's available according to ones rankings.

Say in 14 team league or even 12
If you have the #1-#5 draft position and you draft a WR well that's just how do i put this, umm stoopid. Now with the #9-#14 pick and carson palmer and peyton are gone, it's a consideration.

I don't think that sounds too rigid, maybe too rational.


it sounds fine. it just doesn't sound like what you were saying earlier.

Redskins Win wrote:If you're in some random public fantasy league then yeah some startegy like going WR first might possibly will work. But if you're going against really experienced managers, you're theory will bite you in the behind.


it sounds like what i was saying.

Matthias wrote:but the whole point here is that you can cherry-pick scenarios all day long, but what it comes down to is if you lock yourself into one, singular, never-shall-be-broken strategy, you're not using your intelligence to make sure that what you're doing is actually the best way.


i'm not trying to say that choosing an rb in the first three rounds is a bad choice. what i'm trying to say is that locking into a particular position, regardless of what the draft is doing around you, is bad. if you're in the first two spots, you go tomlinson/alexander. sure. but if you're in the 10th spot and peyton is still sitting on the board because everyone has been scooping rb's... pick him up. or if next year your choice is chad johnson in the middle of the third or kevan barlow/j.j. arrington type-rb... go for c.j. make the right choice at the right time. just don't go casting around absolutes. that's all.

peace.[/i]
Last edited by Matthias on Fri Dec 09, 2005 6:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby ateam » Fri Dec 09, 2005 6:04 pm

For what it's worth, I was unsure heading into this draft after reading other theories. But now after this year I'm certainly more convinced in the RB argument being the way to go.

In my 8 team league, I'm 12-1, killing it, due mainly to:

SA/Jordan/Portis/TJones---we play 3 RB, I've since dealt Portis


In my 14 team league, I had JJ/Deuce/Caddy early on, and struggled when JJ went down after I dealt Caddy. But was saved, big time when I picked up LJ.


Consequently in my 8 teamer, my biggest competition has had Edge/Tiki all year, but now has LJ added, so he'll be a force in playoffs...

On another example however, a guy who finished reg. season at #2 in my 14 league, refrained from RBs early in draft. After McNabb, went w/ 4 WRs and a TE with next 5 rounds. His 1st RB was Benson 9th round, FWP 10th, Suggs 12th, MMoore 13th. Clearly he hit it big w/ Parker/Moore in a league that plays 5 WRs/2 RBs. However, if I face him in the bowl, his running game may be his downfall.
I hate LJ Smith!
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Postby FatFoot » Fri Dec 09, 2005 7:39 pm

louisianacajunsam wrote:as mentioned before, many people assumed owens would do something detrimental to his team, that would cause him to possibly get kicked off...even before the season began...i clearly remember him and rosenhaus clearly stating that if he didnt get a new contract, he would be a problem to the team...he didnt get the contract...boom....fantasy draft a week later....no way man, had to see it coming....

call him what u want...a bust or not....stupid to waste a pick on him this season


I call BS. No one assumed Owens would do something that would cause him to get kicked off the team. People expected a suspension for the normal holdout. You're exemplifying revisionist ideology. :) Seriously... it's TOTAL BS what you're saying. It's like me saying "people expected the Seahawks to beat the Eagles 42-0 this past monday." EASY to say after the fact.

How's this... I got 7 weeks of FF out of Owens. That's better than Javon Walker.

How's this... T.O. is STILL the 13th best points WR in our SI league... ahead of Curtis, Reggie Wayne, RANDY MOSS--one of the WRs people were saying would be a justifiable pick in the first round.

T.O. got me to 8-0. Considering that he hasn't played since week 8, and he still has better numbers than most teams #2 WR... considering that I was the first team to lock for the playoffs, and remain the points leader (11-2) I don't see where you get off calling that pickup "stupid."

IF I knew he was only going to play for half of the year, AND I knew he was going to play as well as he did, I'd still have taken him. Especially in the 4th round.
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Postby wickerkat » Fri Dec 09, 2005 9:06 pm

A lot of really good points being made. A couple of things jumped out at me.

1. TO as an example. There were certain players that made me "uneasy" or were in my mind "overrated" and TO was one of those players. I had him as a top 3 WR but PRAYED that he was gone before I got into a situation to take him. So, I might as well have ranked him 15 because I knew in my gut that I wasn't going to draft him. Sure, he helped teams out the first half, but where is that top pick now that we're in the playoffs? Gone, not due to injury, or playing poorly, but TO BS. Whether you agree with his position or not, he's not helping any FF teams now. There were other players that I "avoided" even though they could be considered studs such as PHolmes.

2. At each position, as mentioned, there are what we call "locks." For next year that'd be SA, LT, and Edge at RB (look at the dropoff from them to the next RB). Last year I would have said Moss, Holt, Harrison. Next year? Whew, hard to say. I wouldn't include RMoss or TO. I guess I'd have to say SS, Holt, CJ, and Harrison. Others like Galloway and Fitz were surpises to a certain degree, at least to me. At QB I'd say Palmer, Manning, and Bulger.

Basically it boils down to drafting the best player again. The top 10 players in my league have from 143-235 points. BIG drop off. Down to the 30th at 107. WOW.

A lot of other factors come into play throughout the draft and year - draft position, intelligent fliers, early ww steals (I got LJohnson, and SDavis), great trading (got Palmer, RMoss, JJones, and LJordan), and ww watching all year.

Funny, last year I pretty much resigned myself to go RB/RB/WR/RB/QB and did, since I had the #1 pick (LT, JJones, Holt, Westy, Bulger). Next year I think I'll take RB if I have one of the top 3 picks (SA, LT, Edge) since they are SO far above the rest, then I'd have to serously consider a top WR (SS, Holt, CJ, Harrison). Think about it. If you're 8/8 or 9/10 or 14/14 on the turn, who would you rather take, the 8, 9, or 14th RB or the 1 and 2 WR?

But, who knows. This is all speculation. Maybe you should just draft guys that play in your area so you have somebody to watch on Sunday. :-)

Good luck all,
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Postby benm3218 » Sat Dec 10, 2005 4:18 am

Mathias will never admit he is wrong. He is one of those guys that would have to be proved wrong 5 yrs in a row, then he'd say "Well I wasn't wrong, the league changed, when I made my statements I was right at the time." What a loony.

Your wrong. It was a time proven system that you were trying to over analyze, and you were wrong this year. Stupidity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. No need to test it next year, it would be the same.

I drafted 4 stud RB's before my first WR. It worked brilliantly.
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Postby wickerkat » Sat Dec 10, 2005 10:19 am

Well, not to get in the middle of this, but rather, i'm bored on a snowy saturday in chicago, but to draft "stud" rb the first 4 rounds is not IMO the smartest thing to do - can it work? sure - and depending on how many teams are in your league, you might have drafted a stud for your first pick, but the rest? doubt if they are "studs" unless you got lucky - and i'd like to see your wrs then - like i said in my last post, aside from the top 10 or so rbs AND wr the drop off is HUGE - so you would have been better off going LT, Holt than say LT, KJ or JuJo

another example (total points in my league so far):
qb #1 palmer 217 pts, #5 eli 148, #10 favre 124, #20 mcnair 93
rb #1 sa 235, #5 tiki 126, #10 dunn 99, #20 bell 65
wr #1 ss 182, #5 holt 128, #10 TO 110, #20 tglenn 72
5 kickers over 100, #10 at 93
11 defs over 100, top at 127

this tells me that your GOAL should be to get as many players in the top 10 at each position as possible - so if that means going RB, WR, RB, WR, QB so be it

if you had the #1 pick and did it the way you said, RB, RB, RB, RB, then I guess WR, WR, QB it might have looked like this in a 10 man league:

LT
Suggs
MAnderson
TBell
Boldin
Horn
Collins

Some good things, but I wouldn't call that 4 stud running backs. I think the point that I am trying to make is take the best player until the top 5-10 at each position are gone, regardless of position. That could mean going LT, Holt. I try not to draft my QB until the 5th round, but as with RBs and WRs, I think it is all about who is the best player out there. If there is a run on QBs in the 3rd round, you may want to step it up. Depends on how you feel. With so many RB injuries this year, it probably isn't a typical year.

Good luck,
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