Value Based Drafting: 2005 Results

[MeShawn]

Many of you guys are familiar with the theory of value based drafting. Rather than drafting guys based purely on who will get the most points, you draft a player based on how he compares to other players at his position. I did a similar post on the basketball side this offseason. For football, it is even more useful. The educated fantasy player knows that RB's dominate and that QB's are not first round picks. Let me show you why, with stats.

For my sample, I took a 12 team league and assumed 1QB, 2RB, 3WR and 1 TE starting rosters. This would give me 12 QB's, 24 RB's, and 36 WR's. If this were for a league, I would go more indepth with bench slots, etc. But this is just a basic example. To do this, I got a list of the top players at each positions and their point totals for this season. I subtracted the first non-starter (QB13, RB25, WR37, TE13) from all the starting players. This gives you their VBD. It shows whether the difference between QB "A" and QB "B" is bigger or smaller than RB "A" and RB "B". Relative drafting, I suppose.

Code: Select all

     Player   Points   VBD
1   Alexander   361.8   230.4
2   Ljohnson   327.3   195.9
3   Tomlinson   321.08   189.68
4   Barber   305   173.6
5   Ssmith   234.8   135.8
6   James   266.3   134.9
7   Portis   243.88   112.48
8   Fitzgerald   205   106
9   Cjohnson   200.5   101.5
10   Smoss   200   101
11   Gates   170.1   97.3
12   Rjohnson   226.8   95.4
13   Jordan   224.8   93.4
14   Galloway   189.1   90.1
15   Palmer   329.54   88.44
16   Harrison   186.6   87.6
17   Boldin   186.3   87.3
18   Holt   185.3   86.3
19   Chambers   183   84
20   Tjones   197.8   66.4
21   MAnderson   196.6   65.2
22   Ward   162.5   63.5
23   Burress   161.4   62.4
24   Glenn   161.2   62.2
25   Shockey   133.1   60.3
26   Brady   301.3   60.2
27   SJackson   190.6   59.2
28   Pmanning   298.38   57.28
29   Driver   153.4   54.4
30   Dunn   185.6   54.2
31   Heap   125.5   52.7
32   Rmoss   148.5   49.5
33   Houshmandzadeh   147.8   48.8
34   McCardell   146.3   47.3
35   Crumpler   117.7   44.9
36   Cooley   117.4   44.6
37   Rsmith   143.2   44.2
38   Kennison   142.5   43.5
39   Parker   172   40.6
40   Jsmith   138.3   39.3
41   McGahee   170.5   39.1
42   Witten   111.7   38.9
43   Droughns   170.1   38.7
44   Hasselbeck   278.6   37.5
45   Wayen   135.5   36.5
46   Dillon   167.4   36
47   Westbrook   167.3   35.9
48   Stallworth   134.7   35.7
49   Ddavis   165.3   33.9
50   Emanning   272.48   31.38
51   Branch   129.8   30.8
52   Jurevicius   129.4   30.4
53   Gonzalez   102.5   29.7
54   Cwilliams   157.9   26.5
55   Porter   123.4   24.4
56   Mason   123.3   24.3
57   Bryant   123.2   24.2
58   Cbrown   153.8   22.4
59   Curtis   120.6   21.6
60   Evans   120.1   21.1
61   Rwilliams   116.7   17.7
62   Kjohnson   116.2   17.2
63   Bell   148.5   17.1
64   Brees   257.94   16.84
65   Jjones   147.1   15.7
66   Coles   114.5   15.5
67   Owens   112.5   13.5
68   McMichael   86.2   13.4
69   Plummer   253.74   12.64
70   Stevens   85.4   12.6
71   Bledsoe   252.56   11.46
72   Toomer   110.4   11.4
73   Lsmith   84.2   11.4
74   Wilford   110.1   11.1
75   Dfoster   141.1   9.7
76   Miller   81.9   9.1
77   Collins   248.16   7.06
78   Moulds   105.6   6.6
79   Vick   246.78   5.68
80   Delhomme   245.94   4.84
81   Rbrown   135.9   4.5
82   Troupe   77   4.2
83   Green   244.76   3.66
84   Lloyd   101.3   2.3

A couple observations:

1. It'd be near impossible to draft Antonio Gates too early next season. He is far and away the best TE and his VBD ranking (12) reflects that. If you can assume Gates will put up numbers similar to the past two seasons, feel confident spending a 2nd rounder on him.

2. The first QB was Carson Palmer (15). After him Brady (26), Peyton (28), Hass (44), and Eli (50) rounded out the top 5. All five of these QB's finished top 10 in total fantasy points. Don't be decieved. This isn't so when you factor in VBD. You've been told in the past not to draft a QB early, this is the proof.

3. I was actually a little surprised about the WR results. I certainly did not expect four WR's in the top 10 (or twelve in the top 25). I can't tell you for certain if this was an unusually high year for WR's, but I can tell you one thing. After the top 10 or so this year, there was a HUGE drop. Nailing a top WR (CJ, Steve Smith, Fitz) in the late first/early second certainly isn't a bad move.

I hope this was a helpful post. If you didn't learn anything new, I hope this reinforced your previous ideas about fantasy football strategy. I also hope you guys will draw your own conclusions and bring out knew insights. Happy New Year everyone.

[VaderFin]

Excellent stuff, MeShawn.

[michaelavelli]

I also employ a strategy close to this. However, I work in a way to discount the TE production. Gate has an extremely high relative position value, but I discount it because the difference, while big proportionate to the other TE's, is a small number of points relative to how many points the other positions score.

[Crimedogg32]

this is projections just from this years stats right?

Nice post like the fantasy basksetball one too

[dream_017]

Great job MeShawn

I use VBD and have done quite well the past couple of years. It is the way to go.

[Cornbread Maxwell]

Thanks Meshawn - good stuff.

How important is it to get a top 3 pick next yr? Pretty massive if you ask me. The dropoff from the top 3 or so RBs to every other player in the NFL is something that shouldnt be overlooked.

[Sixxgunn]

Thanks Meshawn - good stuff.

How important is it to get a top 3 pick next yr? Pretty massive if you ask me. The dropoff from the top 3 or so RBs to every other player in the NFL is something that shouldnt be overlooked.

Which to me says you need to consider getting a top guy at another position correct? If the dropoff after three is so massive, wouldn't you be better served getting a top WR and then getting a RB at that point? I mean, guys like T Jones were going after the first and maybe second round, so getting CJ or Steve Smith this year would have netted you one of only a handful of productive WRs and a quality starting back. Then grabbing guys that are in position to produce like Caddy and Parker would have rounded out your 2nd and 3rd back spots, leaving you able to grab Gates earlier than most. Then a wise pick at QB grabbing Palmer would have stacked your team with some top-notch talent. All these guys would have been reaching, aside from maybe CJ in the first, but it would have paid off.

[onnestabe]

Thanks Meshawn - good stuff.

How important is it to get a top 3 pick next yr? Pretty massive if you ask me. The dropoff from the top 3 or so RBs to every other player in the NFL is something that shouldnt be overlooked.

Top 3 suggests LT, SA, and LJ. I would think you have to throw Tiki in there based on Meshawn's data. It's a 40 point swing in the VBD number from Tiki to Steve Smith, and then everyone starts bunching up for the most part.

I know Tiki is getting up there in years and has Jacobs hawking TDs, but he still put up the points this year. To me, it seems like the 2005 NYG offense looks a lot like the 2004 Bengals offense (young QB, emerging WR, yardage RB), and we saw what Rudi and the Bengals offense did this year (my roommate actually won a free ESPN league by drafting Rudi, CJ, Palmer, and the Bengals D and not checking his lineup until the playoffs {that's when he realized he had LJ on his bench, too}). And if you buy into the Tiki-Rudi comparison, don't forget that there is no Chris Perry taking the 3rd down back title from Tiki.

[The Great Gambini]

Great post, MeShawn. Did you do calculate the VBD ranking manually, or did you use a program?

[Mercer Boy]

Very cool data there!

Agreed with Gates; he's going in the 2nd round next year, no doubt in my mind.

You're right about the ton of WR's in there also. Is it time to rethink first round strategy in order to maximize VBD? It'd be really hard to pass up a RB in the first round though. I feel all of those top WR's are going to be decent next year, and because of that they should all be going in Round 2 as I said in an earlier post of mine. #2 RB's have more value in Round 3 next year because there are just too many question marks involved in their situations. Those top WR's have good situations and have a smaller chance of completely busting barring injury.

QB is the same old story. I expect Manning and Palmer to go in the late 1st/early 2nd next year just because they are as close to "sure things" as you can get. Brady may even go where Bulger did last year, and people will be pulling Eli down in the 5th, most likely where Favre was this year. The big question is this: Where are we going to put the TO-less McNabb?