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Value Based Drafting: 2005 Results

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Postby jayday » Tue Jan 03, 2006 7:55 pm

michaelavelli wrote:I also employ a strategy close to this. However, I work in a way to discount the TE production. Gate has an extremely high relative position value, but I discount it because the difference, while big proportionate to the other TE's, is a small number of points relative to how many points the other positions score.

But Gates puts up WR numbers in your TE slot....that's why his value is up there....It's basically like starting 4 WRs instead of 3 WRs and 1 TE.....
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Postby michaelavelli » Tue Jan 03, 2006 8:02 pm

jayday wrote:
michaelavelli wrote:I also employ a strategy close to this. However, I work in a way to discount the TE production. Gate has an extremely high relative position value, but I discount it because the difference, while big proportionate to the other TE's, is a small number of points relative to how many points the other positions score.

But Gates puts up WR numbers in your TE slot....that's why his value is up there....It's basically like starting 4 WRs instead of 3 WRs and 1 TE.....


But taking Gates with a 2nd round pick, as suggested up top, is somewhere where you could get a much better WR anyway. I'd rather have a 2nd round WR and a TE who will score less than Gates, but not as less as the next tier of WR's will score from that WR in the 2nd round.
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Postby MeShawn » Tue Jan 03, 2006 8:20 pm

michaelavelli wrote:I also employ a strategy close to this. However, I work in a way to discount the TE production. Gate has an extremely high relative position value, but I discount it because the difference, while big proportionate to the other TE's, is a small number of points relative to how many points the other positions score.


That would be true if I used ratios to calculate VBD. If I said a TE1:TE13 ratio of 2:1 was greater than a QB1:QB13 ratio of 7:3, that would be false. Becuase QB's score more points, they would offset the fact that 2:1 is larger than 7:3.

However, I just used simple differences.

TE1 (170.1) + RB25 (131.4) = 301.5 points
RB8 (226.8) + TE13 (72.8) = 299.6 points

The two hypothetical players being analyzed are Gates and Lamont Jordan. Gates finished #11 on the overall VBD rankings, and Jordan #12...Maybe I'm not understading what you're saying? Perhaps, could you rephrase your reasoning?

The Great Gambini wrote:Great post, MeShawn. Did you do calculate the VBD ranking manually, or did you use a program?


I used excel. For the most part it was manual. I typed the names of the top 13, 25, and 37 at each position. Then using a little trick I saw Amazin' use, I went to Data -> Import External Data -> New Web Query and downloaded the table. Then copying and pasting the point totals for each player was simple. This thread took a little over a half hour.
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Postby The Lung » Tue Jan 03, 2006 10:11 pm

michaelavelli wrote:
jayday wrote:
michaelavelli wrote:I also employ a strategy close to this. However, I work in a way to discount the TE production. Gate has an extremely high relative position value, but I discount it because the difference, while big proportionate to the other TE's, is a small number of points relative to how many points the other positions score.

But Gates puts up WR numbers in your TE slot....that's why his value is up there....It's basically like starting 4 WRs instead of 3 WRs and 1 TE.....


But taking Gates with a 2nd round pick, as suggested up top, is somewhere where you could get a much better WR anyway. I'd rather have a 2nd round WR and a TE who will score less than Gates, but not as less as the next tier of WR's will score from that WR in the 2nd round.


All Antonio Gates talk, especially that of using a second round pick, is contingent on Drew Brees. Hopefully people realize that he suffered a torn labrum on Saturday and is undergoing surgery this week.
(~);}

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Postby Plindsey88 » Wed Jan 04, 2006 9:05 am

MeShawn,

I did a ranking similar to this for a draft that is currently underway... One additional thing I factored in, though, was how many games players actually played in... I divided everyone'e VBD score by the number of games they played in to come up with a relative score... Additionally, for players like Larry Johnson who split time early, I counted those games in which they were not the starter as a half-game for the purposes of my calculations... I think it helps to take into account some of the injuries and personnel changes over the course of the season... Players like Donovan McNabb, Terrell Owens, Brian Westbrook, Larry Johnson, etc. benefit greatly when you do things the way I did them....
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Postby Plindsey88 » Wed Jan 04, 2006 9:07 am

The Lung wrote:
michaelavelli wrote:
jayday wrote:
michaelavelli wrote:I also employ a strategy close to this. However, I work in a way to discount the TE production. Gate has an extremely high relative position value, but I discount it because the difference, while big proportionate to the other TE's, is a small number of points relative to how many points the other positions score.

But Gates puts up WR numbers in your TE slot....that's why his value is up there....It's basically like starting 4 WRs instead of 3 WRs and 1 TE.....


But taking Gates with a 2nd round pick, as suggested up top, is somewhere where you could get a much better WR anyway. I'd rather have a 2nd round WR and a TE who will score less than Gates, but not as less as the next tier of WR's will score from that WR in the 2nd round.


All Antonio Gates talk, especially that of using a second round pick, is contingent on Drew Brees. Hopefully people realize that he suffered a torn labrum on Saturday and is undergoing surgery this week.


If Philip Rivers gets the start next year, I think Gates' value actually increases, if that's possible...
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Postby The Balanced Man » Wed Jan 04, 2006 9:20 am

I use VBD as well, but I have run into a question in recent years, and I wanted to get everyone's opinion.

I play in leagues that have a WR/RB position in addition to the standard lineup. Also, in one league, there is a Utility position where you can start a player from any position in addition to the standard lineup.

If there is a flex spot, does one just assume that instead of 24 RB and 24 WR to base the values on that it is 30 and 30?

And with a Utility, where do you set the benchmark for any position to compare all players too?

I'd like to hear your thoughts...
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Postby The Lung » Wed Jan 04, 2006 10:08 am

Plindsey88 wrote:
The Lung wrote:All Antonio Gates talk, especially that of using a second round pick, is contingent on Drew Brees. Hopefully people realize that he suffered a torn labrum on Saturday and is undergoing surgery this week.


If Philip Rivers gets the start next year, I think Gates' value actually increases, if that's possible...


While Rivers will likely need Gates as a safety valve, I'm not convinced he could stretch the field as Brees could. So while Gates receptions could go up, I think his yardage and TDs would fall off.
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Postby BrutallyHuge » Wed Jan 04, 2006 10:11 am

With Rivers, I think Gates' value triples...at least.
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Postby The Lung » Wed Jan 04, 2006 10:20 am

It's a new year, and BH has still got his old knack for sarcasm.

(Whenever there's a significant QB injury and a backup gets the nod, BH always posts that the value of the associated WRs, TEs, and RBs will greatly increase.)
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