Value Based Drafting: 2005 Results

[skibrett15]

I wonder if he'll stick around for this offseason. Not that I do or don't want him to, I just wonder.

Gates should be a high pick next year, regardless of the QB situation. I bet brees recovers well and wins the job, they won't go with an unproven guy until brees fails.

[Metroid]

Thanks Meshawn - good stuff.

How important is it to get a top 3 pick next yr? Pretty massive if you ask me. The dropoff from the top 3 or so RBs to every other player in the NFL is something that shouldnt be overlooked.

Thanx Meshawn.

Gotta agree with Corn Max, having a top four pick is very important. In my league the teams with those top four players(LJ,LT2,SA and Tiki)finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th in that order.

[Stelly]

So using the formula discussed, do you automatically draft the player with the highest VBD score available?

Interesting stuff. I use a similar technique, but more of a personal ranking instead of a mathmatecal one.

[awwchrist]

MeShawn,

I did a ranking similar to this for a draft that is currently underway... One additional thing I factored in, though, was how many games players actually played in... I divided everyone'e VBD score by the number of games they played in to come up with a relative score... Additionally, for players like Larry Johnson who split time early, I counted those games in which they were not the starter as a half-game for the purposes of my calculations... I think it helps to take into account some of the injuries and personnel changes over the course of the season... Players like Donovan McNabb, Terrell Owens, Brian Westbrook, Larry Johnson, etc. benefit greatly when you do things the way I did them....

take week 17 stats out.

I'm sure you still get the hint as to where people lie statistically, but since you guys are coming all this way, don't shortchange yourself.

[MeShawn]

MeShawn,

I did a ranking similar to this for a draft that is currently underway... One additional thing I factored in, though, was how many games players actually played in... I divided everyone'e VBD score by the number of games they played in to come up with a relative score... Additionally, for players like Larry Johnson who split time early, I counted those games in which they were not the starter as a half-game for the purposes of my calculations... I think it helps to take into account some of the injuries and personnel changes over the course of the season... Players like Donovan McNabb, Terrell Owens, Brian Westbrook, Larry Johnson, etc. benefit greatly when you do things the way I did them....

Interesting stuff plindsey. I'd love to see the results of your work.

However, my main purpose of my particular study (I should have stated this earlier) was not to compare the value of Larry Johnson vs Shaun Alexander for instance, but rather the value of a generic RB10 vs TE1 vs. QB1.

So using the formula discussed, do you automatically draft the player with the highest VBD score available?

No definately not. I used this VBD study to see how fantasy value stacks up at each position. We can make some general conclusions from the data above.

I do use VBD for my drafts, however, it's from projections rather than last year's data.

[Matthias]

No definately not. I used this VBD study to see how fantasy value stacks up at each position. We can make some general conclusions from the data above.

then you should definitely do data adjustments as has been suggested above when you consider the #1/#2 qb, manning, and the #3/#4 rb, edge, basically didn't play the last 1/8 of the season because of clinching.