For as long as I've been following fantasy football, I've constantly heard this myth surrounding 3rd year wide receivers: that after struggling in their first two years, many wide receivers finally "get it" and put up a breakout season. And surely, there's anecdotal evidence: Jerry Porter, Plaxico Burress, Laveranues Coles, Eric Moulds, Rod Smith and even Terrell Owens are some household names that broke out in year three.
So let's examine 2005's third year receivers and put the theory to test:
So which third year WRs "broke out" in 2005? Kevin Curtis? Antonio Chatman? Maybe, but to me it seems like they only benefitted from serious injuries on their respective teams. Curtis started for a good part of the season while Isaac Bruce was hobbled, and then went to complete fantasy irrelevance after Bruce returned. Chatman got his opportunity after Javon Walker was lost for the season. Greg Lewis is about the only receiver who had anything close to a breakout year, although it's tough to get a guage on his situation with the loss of Terrell Owens and Donovan McNabb halfway through the season.
More importantly, let's look at those who DIDN'T pan out. If you elevated Andre Johnson, Nate Burleson, and Charles Rogers in your rankings because of their 3rd year WR status, you were likely extremely disappointed in 2005. Similarly, while Tyrone Calico, Derrick Armstrong, Kelley Washington, and Bethel Johnson had borderline fantasy revelance to begin with, for the most part, they all actually regressed in 2005!
Now let's look at the 3rd Year WRs for 2006:
Are you going to elevate in your rankings wide receivers like Michael Jenkins, Reggie Williams, D.J. Hackett, Patrick Crayton, and Keary Colbert simply because it will be their third year? Please don't.
And please keep wide receivers like Larry Fitzgerald, Lee Evans, Roy Williams and Ernest Wilford appropriately ranked based on their 2005 stats, not some mythical theory that they will break out because it will be their third year in the NFL.
Not that many good WRs are drafted each year...I'd say only about 2-3 pan out from each draft class to reach the potential they are projected to have. Let's take a look at the last few drafts, starting with 2002 where you left off. I'll give you all the guys in rounds one and two, along with anyone you've ever heard of that was taken later.
2002 WRs (34 selected): Donte' Stallworth (13), Ashley Lelie (19), Javon Walker (20), Jabar Gaffney (33), Josh Reed (36), Tim Carter (46), Andre' Davis (47), Reche Caldwell (48), Antwaan Randle El (62), Antonio Bryant (63), Deion Branch (65), David Givens (253)...
2001 WRs (34 selected): David Terrell (8), Koren Robinson (9), Rod Gardner (15), Santana Moss (16), Freddie Mitchell (25), Reggie Wayne (30), Quincy Morgan (33), Chad Johnson (36), Robert Ferguson (41), Chris Chambers (62), Steve Smith (74), Justin McCareins (124)
2000 WRs (35 selected): Peter Warrick (4), Plaxico Burress (8), Travis Taylor (10), Sylvester Morris (21), R. Jay Soward (29), Dennis Northcutt (32), Todd Pinkston (36), Jerry Porter (47), Laveranues Coles (78), Darrell Jackson (80)
1999 WRs (30 selected): Torry Holt (6), David Boston (8), Troy Edwards (13), Kevin Johnson (32), Peerless Price (53), Brandon Stokley (105)
Guys in bold are guys I'd consider to have made fantasy impact this season. Not real good numbers, huh? I'd stick with the proven vets who have had a few big seasons before gambling on a young guy...the odds are against them.
'Twas a fun year, fellas.
The Great Gambini
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I really, really enjoy scrutiny like this however I have a problem the the conclusion you postulate. Let's break this down a little bit...
First off, it's tough to really include the folks that weren't really 1st or 2nd string. I mean really, to include a guy who is #3 on the depth chart isn't too fair since he's barely in for half the game. Besides, they aren't expected to be an impact player and anyone who drafted them was either expecting an injury or just stupid (sorry to everyone who drafted those guys). So in that list are:
Kevin Curtis
Greg Lewis
Doug Gabriel
Antonio Chatman
Shaun McDonald
Wesley Walker
Bryant Johnson
Justin Gage
Derick Armstrong
Kelley Washington
Bethel Johnson
Kassim Osgood
I guess I should have simply listed the guys that were expected to play every down. Now let's remove the guys from the remainder who were injured for a significant part of the year:
Andre Johnson - 3 games out, one game with no catches (I assume he was injured during this game)
Arnaz Battle - 6 games out, two games with no catches
Nate Burleson - 4 games out, one game with no catches
Tyrone Calico - 3 games out, one game with no catches
That leaves 3 left:
Anquan Boldin (who actually missed two games) who had a stellar year.
Brandon Lloyd who had a quarterback shuffle mid-season and expected stuggles of Alex Smith.
Justin Gage who had the Kyle Orton/Rex Grossman QB powerhouses throwing to him.
I understand that the idea is to dethrone the myth, but I really don't believe this is a good class to use. Of course, I suppose the argument could be made that 3rd year receivers that wind up 1st or 2nd string are prone to injury (being that 5 of 7 were injured) but I doubt that stands up each year.
Lung, I get where you're going and I'm sure it's similar to baseball's version of the "27 year old" myth, but I'm not buying it with these WRs.
biju wrote:I understand that the idea is to dethrone the myth, but I really don't believe this is a good class to use. Of course, I suppose the argument could be made that 3rd year receivers that wind up 1st or 2nd string are prone to injury (being that 5 of 7 were injured) but I doubt that stands up each year.
Lung, I get where you're going and I'm sure it's similar to baseball's version of the "27 year old" myth, but I'm not buying it with these WRs.
-Matt
Matt,
I'm with you. So let's then take a look at another class of WRs. How about those whose first year was 2002 and their third year was 2004.
Of those, who had a "breakout" year? Surely Ashley Lelie and Javon Walker. Ronald Curry? Yes, but who saw that coming from a guy who only had 5 catches for 31 yards in two prior years? Any others? More importantly, who were the guys whose stats didn't pan out in their third year? Who were the the guys that you might have elevated in your rankings because it was their mythical third year in the league? If you drafted Deion Branch, Andre Davis, Josh Reed, or Jabar Gaffney in the 2004 preseason and were expecting a breakout year, you were likely very disappointed at the end of the 2004 campaign.
2001 WRs (34 selected): David Terrell (8), Koren Robinson (9), Rod Gardner (15), Santana Moss (16), Freddie Mitchell (25), Reggie Wayne (30), Quincy Morgan (33), Chad Johnson (36), Robert Ferguson (41), Chris Chambers (62), Steve Smith (74), Justin McCareins (124)
[u]b]
quote]
Dont forget TJ Housch!!! He was drafted in the 7th round (I think...) in the 2001 draft and he was a very solid fantasy starter this year...
People quote the 3rd year rule like it's written in stone and applies to all 3rd year WRs.
Newsflash: WRs that suck will never breakout.
No team hits on all of their prospects. Maybe the guy just sucks and never panned out, maybe the QB sucks, maybe there are too many good WRs above him, who knows.
Guys like Brandon Lloyd, Greg Lewis and Antonio Chatman fit in the "QB sucks" group.
Guys like Doug Gabriel, Kevin Curtis, Bryant Johnson and Shaun McDonald fit in the "too many good WRs above him" category.
Guys like Tyrone Calico fit in the "he sucks and never panned out" crowd. That guy is a physical beast...6'4", 230, and fast. He just doesn't have hands or heart. Brandon Jones, a rookie, was wiping the floor with Calico until Jones was put on IR.
There are so many reasons for success or failure that you can't pigeonhole guys into this 3 year rule.
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