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Don't reach for Steve Smith!

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Postby Mercer Boy » Wed Jan 04, 2006 9:13 pm

It's not just the committees...it's the bad team situations, the hype for 2nd year RB's, and generally inexperienced new starters. Sure, there will be one or two like Jackson or Jordan that will pan out, but it's partly the scheme they are in.

At this point, I would much rather wait on a guy like Westbrook or Dunn that has been a consistent producer in the top 20 of RB scoring than try to strike lucky gold on an over hyped guy who has inflated expectations. There's a dang good chance they will be falling to Round 3 when everything shakes out with the other RB situations...their value there is excellent. This allows you to get that bona fide top WR in Round 2 like a CJ, Smith, Fitz, Holt, Harrison that you are 90% confident will get you 1200 yards and 8-12 TD's. There are only so many of those guys to get!

Believe me...I have been a 2 RB first guy for a long time. But after getting 2nd place after 2nd place, I really feel that this is the time to alter my strategy to try and gain a player that will consistently score me points from each position - including WR. I can find FA guys that really help, but it's really nice to have a WR you can almost count on for 80-90 yards and a TD almost every game that you have drafted.
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Postby maddog60 » Wed Jan 04, 2006 10:15 pm

I wouldnt reach for Smith like people have reached for Moss in years past, but he's easily in my top 3 WRs I'd consider. I think he could be excellent value during the 2nd round, but I wouldn't take him before CJ, after that, quite possibly.
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Postby flotsamnjetsam » Wed Jan 04, 2006 10:46 pm

Steve Smith in 2005 is the poster boy for why you shouldn't take a WR in the 1st round. Steve Smith was the #1 fantasy WR in 2005. Here is where he was drafted in my 6 leagues (12 team leagues):

League 1: 6.8
League 2: 6.8
League 3: 6.9
League 4: 5.10
League 5: 4.9
League 6: 6.9

The #1 fantasy WR went at the end of round 4 1 time, the end of round 5 1 time, & at the end of round 6 4 times.

Chad Johnson was the #2 fantasy WR. He was drafted 3.8, 3.3, 3.12, 3.7, 3.9, & 3.7. All 6 leagues he went in the 3rd round.

Santana Moss was the #3 fantasy WR. He was drafted 11.12, 12.1, 12.8, 12.1, 13.5, & 8.10. He went in the late 8th round 1 time and 5 times he went in the 11th-13th rounds.

Larry Fitzgerald was the #4 fantasy WR. He was drafted 5.11, 6.1, 6.3, 5.8, 4.1, & 5.8. All 6 leagues he went in the 4th-6th rounds.


Of course this doesn't prove that you will lose if you take a WR in rounds 1 or 2.

It does prove that GREAT WR's can be had in just about every round of the draft (see Santana Moss).
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Postby Mercer Boy » Wed Jan 04, 2006 11:03 pm

This is definitely the case...but who was going to tell you that S. Moss was going to be a top 3 WR before the season started. It was much more believeable that a 2nd rounder like Holt or Harrison or Chad Johnson would put up those numbers.

If you are some sort of magical seer or have an unbelieveably good read on what players will do that year then you can wait and pick off the next top 5 guy in round 10. However, most people can't/won't do that and basically get lucky by picking or falling into that one magic player. I got Thomas Jones fairly late in a draft this year. Did I honestly see him being my #2 RB for 3/4 of the year? No way!

That's why I'm starting to believe that if you have a WR that you are extremely sure will put up 1200 yards and 8-12 TD's like a CJ, Harrison, Holt, Fitzgerald, or Smith you gotta take them early, like Round 2. In Round 3 you find that fairly consistent #2 RB that gets you a good 8-10 points a game. Then if you happen to land that random WR stud in a late round, your team becomes a contender for the title.
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Postby Santacruzer » Thu Jan 05, 2006 4:34 am

I think he will still have a tremendous year next season, but to put in my 2 cents, every player regardless of their position reaches a saturation point. Their is a point to where they could still have a great year, but you pick them too early for what they give you in return.

Say Willis McGahee. He finished with a respectable 1247 yards, and 5 TDs, along with 28 receptions for 178 yards. He finished in 10th spot for rushing in the NFL on a team that struggled with an inexperienced QB, and some other issues. BUT most people would disagree that he had a good year because he was generally a top 5 pick, and I don't think he made it out of the first round in any draft. If he were drafted where he should have, say late second round, people would be talking about how good this guy can/could be.

Steve Smith, barring injury should easily finish in the top 3 - 5 for WRs, but he should still not be a 1st round pick.
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Postby FF Newbie » Mon Jan 09, 2006 1:33 pm

I don't get it. Steve Smith looks like a good bet to me next year. I would draft the guy in the late 2nd/early 3rd.

He's definitely a good bet in the late 2nd/early 3rd round. The problem is that there's virtually no chance he will be around that late in most drafts.
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Postby BrutallyHuge » Mon Jan 09, 2006 1:37 pm

flotsamnjetsam wrote:Of course this doesn't prove that you will lose if you take a WR in rounds 1 or 2.

It does prove that GREAT WR's can be had in just about every round of the draft (see Santana Moss).


Unless you're into tarot cards and crystal balls, there's no way to tell where the GREAT WRs will come from.

Galloway was probably undrafted and he lit it up (Not me of course, I drafted Steve Smith, Fitzgerald, Galloway, and Santana Moss for value...I'm that good).

Next year, the top 4 WRs might go in the top 4 rounds...they might not. There's always going to be great late round picks...it happens every year...it's not new. We base our decisions on the best available information AT THAT TIME.
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Postby Redskins Win » Mon Jan 09, 2006 1:50 pm

BrutallyHuge wrote:Next year, the top 4 WRs might go in the top 4 rounds...they might not. There's always going to be great late round picks...it happens every year...it's not new. We base our decisions on the best available information AT THAT TIME.


So true, You have to draft using available info and not some hidden fact that a player was #1 this season there fore will bust next season. I gurantee that if TO didn't journey down the road he did he could've been the topic of this article.
Not that I'll draft steve smith in the first round but I will probably consider him the #1 WR in next years draft. If he's available in the 2nd and falls to me, I would think long and hard about taking him, depending who's been drafted and who's available.
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Postby UNDEFEATED » Mon Jan 09, 2006 8:40 pm

Mercer Boy wrote:This is definitely the case...but who was going to tell you that S. Moss was going to be a top 3 WR before the season started. It was much more believeable that a 2nd rounder like Holt or Harrison or Chad Johnson would put up those numbers.

If you are some sort of magical seer or have an unbelieveably good read on what players will do that year then you can wait and pick off the next top 5 guy in round 10. However, most people can't/won't do that and basically get lucky by picking or falling into that one magic player. I got Thomas Jones fairly late in a draft this year. Did I honestly see him being my #2 RB for 3/4 of the year? No way!

That's why I'm starting to believe that if you have a WR that you are extremely sure will put up 1200 yards and 8-12 TD's like a CJ, Harrison, Holt, Fitzgerald, or Smith you gotta take them early, like Round 2. In Round 3 you find that fairly consistent #2 RB that gets you a good 8-10 points a game. Then if you happen to land that random WR stud in a late round, your team becomes a contender for the title.


i am going to start agreeing with MB....out loud.

TOP 5 wrs that are essentially locks for getting lots of looks,touches, receptions, yards, tds and are healthly workhorses are GREAT PICKS IN THE SECOND ROUND.

Picking up a #2 decent-servicable rb in round 2 of the draft is NOT LOOKING as important to me. In all roster formats. 2 or 3 WRs. Flex or no Flex. WRs look to have more impact on a team.

Its easier to find a #2rb after during or after round 3. Versus Finding a #1 wr with STUD-Consistency quality in those same rounds.

This is something i am already pegging to do in a couple of my other leagues.

Something i will not only test but actually do.

MB...i have been following your opinions on this since last offseason. We are on the same wavelength.
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Postby Stelly » Tue Jan 10, 2006 11:20 am

I got very lucky in last season's draft. I drafted S. Smith with my 4th Rd pick (4.8) in a 10 team league. I can keep him next year for my third round pick (3.8).

Since I'm probably keeping Rudi Johnson as my first round pick (1.8), I am hoping to grab a good RB2 at 2.3, and have a great trio of players in my first three picks!
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