I'm not considering him a top 10 RB right now and I'm hoping a disappointing season will allow me to snag him in the second round (where he'll have good value). But I need someone consistent and productive for a 1st round choice and it's just not going to be him.
You know, the more I look at this the more I think this guy is ready to break out next year. And I'll bet you'll be able to get him for cheap. I just looked through his games this season and he tended to do well with a fair amount of carries (in some games he was getting single digit touches) and when the QB was doing well.
In other words, when the QB made defenses play back to cover the secondary and couldn't stick 8 guys in the box he performed well. In some cases, extremely well.
Now, to be fair this isn't always the case. There are certainly games where he underperformed when the QB was succeeding. I would say these are the games where teams basically took the stance that Losman/Holcomb would eventually lose the game for them by turning over the ball and that they only needed to stop McGahee. So McGahee failed, but the team probably did quite well (I didn't check to see if those games were won, lost, or indifferent) as a whole.
Anyway as I said before, I'm not going to invest a first round pick on him but I would have no problems taking him mid-2nd round. As a matter of fact, he's probably got good value compared to the other guys getting taken at that point.
It also depends on who the Bills draft, though. They are taking a good look at Winston Justice, the OT out of USC, with their first round pick. They could try and move up in the draft, but if they take a OT with their first pick, I think it will help out McGahee's value.