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**Greatest Historical Figure Of All Time Nominations**

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Postby moonhead » Fri Jan 20, 2006 6:10 pm

VaderFin wrote:Moonhead said that in no way should Joe Gibbs be on this list. I tried my hardest to argue with him but he would not budge. Blame him. ;-)


anyone that ever was or is involved in nascar/nastruck or whatever cannot be included on this list.
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Postby The_Dude » Fri Jan 20, 2006 6:12 pm

knapplc wrote:Pass the chalk.

Thanks.

In your limited example the numbers worked out to 33% popularity largely because of the tiny sample you used. Yes, I understand that in a larger sampling these trends tend to recur, but what is more likely to happen is this scenario:

1: A B C
2: B C A
3: C A B
4: A C B
5: B A C
6: B A C
7: B C A
8: A C B
9: B C A
10: B C A
11: B A C
12: A C B
13: A B C
14: C A B
15: A B C
16: C B A
17: C A B
18: B A C

Wherein B is the clear winner, being preferred to A and C, while A is preferred only to C. C is the clear loser, being preferred to neither A nor B.

However, the above scenario is NOT how we're running the tournament. It will not be A vs. B vs. C vs. D vs. E vs. F vs. G vs. H in the War bracket, A vs. B vs. C vs. D vs. E vs. F vs. G vs. H in the Politics bracket, and so on. Rather, it will resemble any other tournament bracket system, where A will take on H, B will take on G, C will take on F, and D will take on E. Winners will advance, so we can assume that B would face C in Round two (picking highest seeds to win) and A would take on D.

This is not a Battle Royale, but a head-to-head competition featuring seeds.

But thanks for the lesson all the same! Very enlightening! ;-D


All voting systems are flawed. Period. You missed my point and then made it for me at the same time.

The way you design the draws by seeding is simply crafting an electoral system which will produce a winner. But, there exists no such system for aggregating preferences that can't fall victim to the cycle problem. The three case example is just an example of how it can manifest. You should read Kenneth Arrow's Social Choice and Individual Values where he formalizes a proves this point using some formal logic if your interest is greater than simply tongue in cheek (read the 1963 version because there was a small error as originally published in 1951). Anyhow, Arrow proves the general case of the vote cycle. There's also some points on Condorcet efficiency that are worth reading - the probability with which a Condorcet winner will be selected if it exists and the probability that a CW actually exists.

If you're defining greatest as the one who is democratically preferred, you can't just make a system for determining winners and say, "this system is democratic." It must meet some objective criteria. Its simply one of several different systems that WILL produce a winner. There are a number of others, including dictatorship, random assignment, perverse democracy (where we choose the least preferred outcome), among many others. Will any of the winners have the positive democratic property of being the Condorcet winner? Maybe. But almost certainly not because with N>3 voters and n>3 possible outcomes, there's no such thing as a democratic outcome. Seeds or no seeds. Tournament or no tournament. The entire point of Arrow's proof (and the logical implication of Condorcet's work) was that it is impossible to aggregate individual preferences in any coherent way so that you can define a social choice. The point is that if we hypothetically designed the tournament differently with the same group of voters and the same group of outcomes, we would very possibly (and likely) get a completely different result. Ergo, you have designed a system that will produce a winner, but what does that mean? Its simply an exercise in futility. It doesn't even mean that the figure who is chosen as the winner is anything but an artifact of the way you designed the tournament. Not the candidate most preferred by those who participate in the election. Just the winner under a specific institutional setup.

Go back to my original example and trust me that it is the norm when you increase the number of voters AS WELL AS the number of outcome possibilities. The probability that any one will defeat every other one in pairwise competition is extremely small.

1: A B C
2: B C A
3: C A B

you want to impose a tournament system... so, say A is seeded 1, gets a bye and we have a pairwise competition.

B will defeat C, and then go to face A and A will win.

But imagine if you had seeded the tournament differently. Instead, I seed C as 1 and B and A go up against each other. A defeats B, and then goes up against C and C loses.

Which one is the democratic outcome, when democratic is defined as the one that satisfies the basic notion that democracy select the one preferred by most people. THAT OUTCOME DOES NOT EXIST. Therefore, the way you design the system determines the outcome. It doesn't matter how you design it to produce an outcome, that outcome will not have any positive democratic properties. It will simply be selected because the "agenda setter" (in the case of our tournament, you) designed the electoral institution instead of some other agenda setter (for instance, BrutallyHuge - whose system would simply be dictatorial - Larry Johnson, RB KC defeats all other nominees).


Now, if preferences over the 100 or so choices do end up as they do in your example ---- that there is one magical outcome that in each case a majority prefers to all the other possible outcomes, then alas, there is no cycle and we are spared this ugliness. But with as many nominations that we have, the probability of that is infinitesimal.
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Postby josebach » Fri Jan 20, 2006 6:14 pm

Nilmerf wrote:
VaderFin wrote:Anyone notice how not 1 of the "kiddies" has made any nominations? :-b :-?

I'm 19. ;-D

We need some female flavour in here. I'll throw down Elizabeth (far superior to Margaret Thatcher) and Cleopatra for the political section.
Also give a shout out to Lao Tzu for religion. Annnnnnnnnd Mozart, Shakespeare, and Homer for the culture section. :-D


Well, if you're going to mention classical musicians, how can you not mention Johann Sebastian Bach? His church music alone should make him worthy of consideration.
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Postby Nilmerf » Fri Jan 20, 2006 6:17 pm

True, I put Bach as the second greatest classical musician ever.
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Postby Nfl Fan » Fri Jan 20, 2006 6:22 pm

"Greatest Historical Figure of all Time"

I nominate Jesus, the Christ.

Born of a virgin.
Lived a sinless life.
Performed incredible miracles.
Sufferred a horrendous death for the redemption of man.
Rose from that same death.
Changed the world more than any single other life.
and...
Promised to return during the generation that sees the rebirth of Israel into their homeland (May 14, 1948). FYI, that would be this generation.

Yeah, I nominate that guy! ;-D
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Postby moonhead » Fri Jan 20, 2006 6:26 pm

Nfl Fan wrote:"Greatest Historical Figure of all Time"

I nominate Jesus, the Christ.

Born of a virgin.
Lived a sinless life.
Performed incredible miracles.
Sufferred a horrendous death for the redemption of man.
Rose from that same death.
Changed the world more than any single other life.
and...
Promised to return during the generation that sees the rebirth of Israel into their homeland (May 14, 1948). FYI, that would be this generation.

Yeah, I nominate that guy! ;-D


jesus is off limits in this competition. it's not fair to have an infallible figure among mere mortals.
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Postby The_Dude » Fri Jan 20, 2006 6:31 pm

moonhead wrote:
Nfl Fan wrote:"Greatest Historical Figure of all Time"

I nominate Jesus, the Christ.

Born of a virgin.
Lived a sinless life.
Performed incredible miracles.
Sufferred a horrendous death for the redemption of man.
Rose from that same death.
Changed the world more than any single other life.
and...
Promised to return during the generation that sees the rebirth of Israel into their homeland (May 14, 1948). FYI, that would be this generation.

Yeah, I nominate that guy! ;-D


jesus is off limits in this competition. it's not fair to have an infallible figure among mere mortals.


Jesus just might be a Condorcet winner.
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Postby VaderFin » Fri Jan 20, 2006 7:02 pm

Nfl Fan wrote:"Greatest Historical Figure of all Time"

I nominate Jesus, the Christ.

Born of a virgin.
Lived a sinless life.
Performed incredible miracles.
Sufferred a horrendous death for the redemption of man.
Rose from that same death.
Changed the world more than any single other life.
and...
Promised to return during the generation that sees the rebirth of Israel into their homeland (May 14, 1948). FYI, that would be this generation.

Yeah, I nominate that guy! ;-D



Go back and read my first post.
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Postby Nfl Fan » Fri Jan 20, 2006 7:25 pm

moonhead wrote:jesus is off limits in this competition. it's not fair to have an infallible figure among mere mortals.


That's funny! ;-D
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Postby Nfl Fan » Fri Jan 20, 2006 7:27 pm

VaderFin wrote:Go back and read my first post.


Just saw it..... sorry for breaking the rules. ;-)

(I still like Him the best)
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