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Postby mysticphysh » Tue Feb 07, 2006 7:48 am

One thing you can gleen from the posts above is it's pretty split. Some think he'll be fine as a #2, some think he'll split carries with whoever, even more then with Bettis this year. I think he's to big of a question mark next season. If he's there on the other side of the 3rd round, he should be picked up. If nothing else, he makes a great Flex player with the potential to be a #2 back. Make sure you have another desent RB on the bench.
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Postby Plindsey88 » Tue Feb 07, 2006 9:35 am

chchelse wrote:
Plindsey88 wrote:IMO, all of these guys should be drafted ahead of Willie Parker in '06:

L. Tomlinson
S. Alexander
L. Johnson
E. James
T. Barber
L. Jordan
S. Jackson
C. Portis
R. Johnson
C. Williams
W. McGahee
W. Dunn
B. Westbrook
D. Davis (assuming Houston doesn't take Bush)
J. Lewis

S. Smith
L. Fitzgerald
C. Johnson
T. Holt
M. Harrison
T. Owens (if he signs somewhere)

P. Manning

A. Gates


That's 23 guys... So, I could see Willie being the #24 overall pick, at this point... He could make a good #2 for a guy carrying one of the big 3 (LT2, SA, LJ)...

HOWEVER, there are a lot of things that could bump him lower...

If Carson Palmer rehabs well, I would take him over Willie... If Deshaun Foster rehabs well, and S. Davis retires, I would take him over Willie... If Edge leaves Indy, I would take whoever starts in Indy over Willie... If Alexander leaves Seattle, I would take whoever starts in Seattle over Willie... If Ricky Williams is traded I would take Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams over Willie...

So there are a lot of things that could cause Willie to slip into the realm of #3 RB....


J Lewis? Did you see him this year? He looked horrible. With Chester Taylor looming large. Two 100 yd games and 4 TD's on the year. I gotta believe you could get him in the fourth round if you wanted him..........................


Odds are slim Baltimore re-signs both Jamal and Chester in the off-season... Both are free agents, and the Ravens are going to have to pick one or the other... Which means, either Jamal is traded and starts somewhere else OR Jamal is kept and Chester is traded, thus eliminating the possibility of RBBC... In either case, I think Jamal has a bounce back year... For most of 2005, there was no passing threat in Baltimore... Opposing defenses put 8 in the box on every play, and Jamal's stats suffered... Once Boller came back, though, and defenses had to respect the possibility of the pass, Jamal improved....

Mark my words, Jamal tops 1200 and 8 TD's this year... I'm not sure you can say the same for Willie Parker...
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Postby Keyser_WV » Tue Feb 07, 2006 9:43 am

Plindsey88 wrote:
chchelse wrote:
Plindsey88 wrote:IMO, all of these guys should be drafted ahead of Willie Parker in '06:

L. Tomlinson
S. Alexander
L. Johnson
E. James
T. Barber
L. Jordan
S. Jackson
C. Portis
R. Johnson
C. Williams
W. McGahee
W. Dunn
B. Westbrook
D. Davis (assuming Houston doesn't take Bush)
J. Lewis

S. Smith
L. Fitzgerald
C. Johnson
T. Holt
M. Harrison
T. Owens (if he signs somewhere)

P. Manning

A. Gates


That's 23 guys... So, I could see Willie being the #24 overall pick, at this point... He could make a good #2 for a guy carrying one of the big 3 (LT2, SA, LJ)...

HOWEVER, there are a lot of things that could bump him lower...

If Carson Palmer rehabs well, I would take him over Willie... If Deshaun Foster rehabs well, and S. Davis retires, I would take him over Willie... If Edge leaves Indy, I would take whoever starts in Indy over Willie... If Alexander leaves Seattle, I would take whoever starts in Seattle over Willie... If Ricky Williams is traded I would take Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams over Willie...

So there are a lot of things that could cause Willie to slip into the realm of #3 RB....


J Lewis? Did you see him this year? He looked horrible. With Chester Taylor looming large. Two 100 yd games and 4 TD's on the year. I gotta believe you could get him in the fourth round if you wanted him..........................


Odds are slim Baltimore re-signs both Jamal and Chester in the off-season... Both are free agents, and the Ravens are going to have to pick one or the other... Which means, either Jamal is traded and starts somewhere else OR Jamal is kept and Chester is traded, thus eliminating the possibility of RBBC... In either case, I think Jamal has a bounce back year... For most of 2005, there was no passing threat in Baltimore... Opposing defenses put 8 in the box on every play, and Jamal's stats suffered... Once Boller came back, though, and defenses had to respect the possibility of the pass, Jamal improved....

Mark my words, Jamal tops 1200 and 8 TD's this year... I'm not sure you can say the same for Willie Parker...


Parker had 1200+ and 4 TD's this year. Why wouldn't you expect the same or more next year?

He had a full season of experience and the Steeler's line is good so I don't see a dropoff.

I also have to think they will have more plays that suit Parker's style in the game plan next year. You can't pound him inside like they used to do with Bettis.

If Jamal starts with Baltimore it would be a close call. I probably would give Lewis the edge but Parker isn't that far behind.

Parker isn't ready to be a fantasy #2 yet. After next year he will have 2 seasons under his belt. I think that is when we can gauge his potential.
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Postby Plindsey88 » Tue Feb 07, 2006 9:50 am

Keyser_WV wrote:
Plindsey88 wrote:
chchelse wrote:
Plindsey88 wrote:IMO, all of these guys should be drafted ahead of Willie Parker in '06:

L. Tomlinson
S. Alexander
L. Johnson
E. James
T. Barber
L. Jordan
S. Jackson
C. Portis
R. Johnson
C. Williams
W. McGahee
W. Dunn
B. Westbrook
D. Davis (assuming Houston doesn't take Bush)
J. Lewis

S. Smith
L. Fitzgerald
C. Johnson
T. Holt
M. Harrison
T. Owens (if he signs somewhere)

P. Manning

A. Gates


That's 23 guys... So, I could see Willie being the #24 overall pick, at this point... He could make a good #2 for a guy carrying one of the big 3 (LT2, SA, LJ)...

HOWEVER, there are a lot of things that could bump him lower...

If Carson Palmer rehabs well, I would take him over Willie... If Deshaun Foster rehabs well, and S. Davis retires, I would take him over Willie... If Edge leaves Indy, I would take whoever starts in Indy over Willie... If Alexander leaves Seattle, I would take whoever starts in Seattle over Willie... If Ricky Williams is traded I would take Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams over Willie...

So there are a lot of things that could cause Willie to slip into the realm of #3 RB....


J Lewis? Did you see him this year? He looked horrible. With Chester Taylor looming large. Two 100 yd games and 4 TD's on the year. I gotta believe you could get him in the fourth round if you wanted him..........................


Odds are slim Baltimore re-signs both Jamal and Chester in the off-season... Both are free agents, and the Ravens are going to have to pick one or the other... Which means, either Jamal is traded and starts somewhere else OR Jamal is kept and Chester is traded, thus eliminating the possibility of RBBC... In either case, I think Jamal has a bounce back year... For most of 2005, there was no passing threat in Baltimore... Opposing defenses put 8 in the box on every play, and Jamal's stats suffered... Once Boller came back, though, and defenses had to respect the possibility of the pass, Jamal improved....

Mark my words, Jamal tops 1200 and 8 TD's this year... I'm not sure you can say the same for Willie Parker...


Parker had 1200+ and 4 TD's this year. Why wouldn't you expect the same or more next year?

He had a full season of experience and the Steeler's line is good so I don't see a dropoff.

I also have to think they will have more plays that suit Parker's style in the game plan next year. You can't pound him inside like they used to do with Bettis.

If Jamal starts with Baltimore it would be a close call. I probably would give Lewis the edge but Parker isn't that far behind.

Parker isn't ready to be a fantasy #2 yet. After next year he will have 2 seasons under his belt. I think that is when we can gauge his potential.


No back Parker's size can handle the sheer number of carries Cowher has in his offense... He WILL split carries with someone... He's not a goal line back... Most of his TD's will be the 60 yard variety... I put him in the same category as Mewelde Moore... If both start all year long, both have 1300-1400 total yard potential, but neither will top 5 TD's... Jamal has 10-12 TD potential as a Raven, and more if he's traded.... And he is just as likely (if not more likely) to top 1500 yards...
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Postby Free Bagel » Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:33 am

There are so many unjustified assumptions and myths in this thread I don't even know where to start.

I'll just paraphrase the quotes since most were repeated several times.

Willie Parker will share carries next year and hence can't be a reliable #2 RB


Parker finished with 1500+ total yards and 5 TDs to go with a 4.7ypc this year. No, he didn't keep pace with his first couple games and finish with 3000 yards and 16TDs, but he certainly proved the doubters, most of whom said 800 yards was a stretch, wrong.

Regardless, he finished with 1500+ total yards and 5 TDs this year, roughly what Clinton Portis finished with in 2004. That puts him 13th in fantasy points in a standard 10/6 league among RBs.

And of course, HE DID THIS ALL SPLITTING CARRIES.

So let's just make sure I see the logic here. Last year he finished 13th (or top #2 RB) while splitting carries, yet he's not a reliable #2 while splitting carries? Riiiighttt....

Now, we add in that the guy he was splitting carries with just retired, and the guy most likely to step into that vacant role (if there is one) has shown the last 5 years that 2 games is pretty much the longest stretch of games he can stay healthy.

No RB of Parker's size can handle the number of carries Pitt needs every year


Says who exactly? This is the biggest myth in fantasy football.

Haters meet Curtis Martin.
Haters meet Barry Sanders.
Haters meet Emmitt Smith.
Haters meet Priest Holmes.

Go ahead and look up the sizes, I think you'll be surprised...all virtually identical to Parker, all carried the ball over 300 times, most of them over 350 times.

No RB that size can do it, yet there is only the beginning of a list of the many that HAVE done it right there. Once more the logic baffles me. And it's not even like Parker struggled with durability this year in the 273 touches he got.

Pitt needs a pounder to run the ball a lot


Why? Because Bettis happened to be their last RB? This idea that Pitt needs a big guy, and even that Pitt has to run the ball a lot is just a product of what they happened to be doing at the time.

Let's not forget that just a few years ago Pitt was a vertical, air it out to Plax and Ward team. Cowher will use the talent he has in the capacity that they are suited for, just because their last RB was a pounder doesn't mean that their next one has to be as well.

Hell, Pitt just played an entire season with their #1 guy being a speed back, and won the super bowl. Why exactly should they get rid of the speed guy?

Parker was no big deal in the Super Bowl, just one lucky long run and a bunch of garbage other than that


Let's not confuse one guy being stopped with a team being stopped. Seattle was stuffing the run, regardless of who the RB was.

With all the referee and Jerramy Stevens hype, people are vastly underrating the importance of that Parker run. At that point in the game, Pitt was holding a 4 point lead in a game that, let's face it, Seattle had dominated and Pitt had gotten a few lucky breaks in. If that's not Parker out there on that run, it's a 15 yard gain and Pitt is still sitting on their side of the field with a small lead and an inability to move the football, but instead Parker and his speed took that 15 yarder and made it 75, a two score lead, and totally changed the way the rest of the game was to be played (we didn't exactly see a lot of Shaun Alexander after that, did we?).

Now, the kicker in all this is that this is EXACTLY what Cowher has said he loves about Parker time and time again in tv interviews this year. He goes on about how he loves having a guy out there that can break the big one (does anyone really think Randel El gets on the field for his crisp out routes?) and then that very thing hits it big for him at a crucial point in the biggest game he's ever coached. Why exactly would he want to phase that out?

The Willie Parker we see now is the Willie Parker we'll see next year


This one makes me scoff every time. Every year we see countless players going way higher than the spot they finished the year before because they're young and we are all going on the assumption that they will "get better" and "adjust to the NFL", yet no one seems to want to count the fact that Parker is in fact one of these players himself being that he was in his 2nd year this past season after being given his first real shot.

His numbers were better than Cadillac's this year, yet we all assume Caddy is a better fantasy option because he was just a rookie and will get better. Why has Parker hit his ceiling at the ripe old age of 24? Answer: he hasn't. There's still plenty of room to grow here. Not to mention that Parker probably has more untapped talent than the lot of them, considering that this is his first gig as a starter and hence the first time that he has had the focus of a coaching staff to help him get better, a la Antonio Gates a few years back.


Bottom line is that we have a guy who finished as the #13 RB last year, who played a crucial part in a super bowl run and could very easily end up in an even BETTER situation next year, and was basically a rookie last year and will only get better, yet people are worried that he won't finish as a top 24 RB.

I don't see how additional faith from your coach due to his role in a super bowl run, his biggest FF bane retiring, and a young RB having another year under his belt translates into moving 12+ spots DOWNARD.
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Postby HskrPwr13 » Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:59 am

Great post, Bagel. I'm not understanding either why the 13th hightest scoring RB cant crack these other posters 2 deep. Come play in my league, please!
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Postby Plindsey88 » Tue Feb 07, 2006 1:20 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
No RB of Parker's size can handle the number of carries Pitt needs every year


Says who exactly? This is the biggest myth in fantasy football.

Haters meet Curtis Martin.
Haters meet Barry Sanders.
Haters meet Emmitt Smith.
Haters meet Priest Holmes.

Go ahead and look up the sizes, I think you'll be surprised...all virtually identical to Parker, all carried the ball over 300 times, most of them over 350 times.

No RB that size can do it, yet there is only the beginning of a list of the many that HAVE done it right there. Once more the logic baffles me. And it's not even like Parker struggled with durability this year in the 273 touches he got.


In 2005 Pittsburgh led the league in rushing attempts with 549 during the regular season... The only teams close to that number were Denver (542) and Atlanta (531)...

Wanna guess what the 3 teams have in common? How about 2-back systems?

In 2004, Pittsburgh set records for rushing attempts with 618... Again, they used a RBBC...

Wanna guess what they'll do in 2006? I'd be willing to bet dollars to doughnuts they run the hell out of the ball and use a multiple back system... Wanna take me up on that?

Cowher will rotate backs once again... Like he always does... And Willie will see the bulk of the work between the twenties, while a larger back sees goal line duty... I promise you...

No back Parker's size can handle more than 60-65% of Cowher's workload... NO BACK... Not Priest... Not Sanders... Not Martin... Not Emmitt...

Will Parker see 300 carries? Sure, I can buy that... But what I was saying earlier is that Cowher likes to run the ball close to (or more than) 600 times per year... And there isn't a back in the league that can handle that... Few backs can handle half of that without missing a game or three due to injury...

Parker will split carries with another back... It's that simple... I guarantee it.... And he will NOT be the goal line back... I promise you that.... His specialty is working in space... He's no good with short yardage and goal line work... Cowher knows that...

Like I said time and again this year, Willie Parker is a poor man's Warrick Dunn... He is not, nor will he ever be, an elite back... Not in that system... He will ALWAYS share carries... Period... End of story...
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Postby HskrPwr13 » Tue Feb 07, 2006 1:42 pm

But Plindsey, who cares how/if he splits carries if he's the 13th best fantasy RB out there? Is he a no.1? No. Does a 13th-24th point ranking for his position make him a no.2? Absolutely. What are you trying to debate?
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Postby Keyser_WV » Tue Feb 07, 2006 1:53 pm

Willie Parker 2005

16th in carries with 255.
22nd in rushing attempt per game with 17.
12th in yards with 1202.
12th in yards per game with 80.1
29th in rushing td's with 4.

Pittsburgh ran 549 times in 2005 so Parker should see 250-300 carries easy.

He needs to catch more balls to become a true top 10 guy.

Somewhere close to 1500 total yards is probably where he will end up next year.

If he scores 5 td's he will be top 20. If he scores 10 td's he is top 10.

Based on his play this year I certainly think he has more to learn and will be a better player next season.
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Postby Plindsey88 » Tue Feb 07, 2006 1:57 pm

HskrPwr13 wrote:But Plindsey, who cares how/if he splits carries if he's the 13th best fantasy RB out there? Is he a no.1? No. Does a 13th-24th point ranking for his position make him a no.2? Absolutely. What are you trying to debate?


I think I made my point pretty clearly... As of right now, I like Willie as the 24th overall pick... There are a lot of things that could bump him down 3-7 slots, though...

Is he a decent #2 RB? Well that depends on who you are pairing him with... Paired with a stud RB (LT, LJ, or SA), yes, I think he is a decent #2... If he's picked up by someone in the early third who goes with a stud WR, Manning, or Gates in the 1st or 2nd, then I think he's a servicable #2, as well...

BUT, if you pair Parker with the likes of Rudi Johnson, Clinton Portis, Tiki Barber, LaMont Jordan, etc... then, NO, he is not a good #2...

Ideally, I think if someone went LT2 with the #1 overall pick, Antonio Gates with the #24, and Willie with the #25, they stand a pretty good chance of fielding a decent team, or maybe something like Larry Johnson, Torry Holt, Willie Parker could work out nicely...

But if you take a guy like Tiki Barber or Rudi Johnson in the mid-first, Parker in the mid-second, and wait on a WR like Darrell Jackson in the third, I think you will find yourself on the losing end of things quite a bit...

How about I put it this way.... In standard scoring, Willie Parker will max out at about 180-200 FF points... And they will be scored inconsistently... He will have 20 point games one week and 6 point games the next...

Paired with an ultra-consistent back (or a good back and elite WR) that might be enough to put you in the playoffs... But paired with a decent #1 back and a third round WR, I think you will be wishing you drafted Chad Johnson in the second round when you had the chance....
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