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FWP: 2006 and beyond

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Postby Plindsey88 » Tue Feb 07, 2006 2:00 pm

Keyser_WV wrote:Pittsburgh ran 549 times in 2005 so Parker should see 250-300 carries easy.

He needs to catch more balls to become a true top 10 guy.

Somewhere close to 1500 total yards is probably where he will end up next year.

If he scores 5 td's he will be top 20. If he scores 10 td's he is top 10.

Based on his play this year I certainly think he has more to learn and will be a better player next season.


I totally agree with this analysis... And what I am telling you is that in Pittsburgh, under Bill Cowher, Willie Parker will NEVER score 10 TD's... 5 is certainly doable... Which is why I have Willie Parker at the cusp between a lesser #2 back and great #3 back...
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Postby Heavyg25 » Tue Feb 07, 2006 2:13 pm

Everyone has their own opinions so you are bound to get a mixed result. I personally think that Parker will do fine as a #2 back. I just ignore all the haters, most of the time it is the same people that said all year long that he wouldn't remain the starter once Bettis and Staley got healthy. They were wrong then and I believe they are still wrong now with their assessment of next year.
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Postby Free Bagel » Tue Feb 07, 2006 2:52 pm

Plindsey88 wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:
No RB of Parker's size can handle the number of carries Pitt needs every year


Says who exactly? This is the biggest myth in fantasy football.

Haters meet Curtis Martin.
Haters meet Barry Sanders.
Haters meet Emmitt Smith.
Haters meet Priest Holmes.

Go ahead and look up the sizes, I think you'll be surprised...all virtually identical to Parker, all carried the ball over 300 times, most of them over 350 times.

No RB that size can do it, yet there is only the beginning of a list of the many that HAVE done it right there. Once more the logic baffles me. And it's not even like Parker struggled with durability this year in the 273 touches he got.


In 2005 Pittsburgh led the league in rushing attempts with 549 during the regular season... The only teams close to that number were Denver (542) and Atlanta (531)...

Wanna guess what the 3 teams have in common? How about 2-back systems?

In 2004, Pittsburgh set records for rushing attempts with 618... Again, they used a RBBC...

Wanna guess what they'll do in 2006? I'd be willing to bet dollars to doughnuts they run the hell out of the ball and use a multiple back system... Wanna take me up on that?

Cowher will rotate backs once again... Like he always does... And Willie will see the bulk of the work between the twenties, while a larger back sees goal line duty... I promise you...

No back Parker's size can handle more than 60-65% of Cowher's workload... NO BACK... Not Priest... Not Sanders... Not Martin... Not Emmitt...

Will Parker see 300 carries? Sure, I can buy that... But what I was saying earlier is that Cowher likes to run the ball close to (or more than) 600 times per year... And there isn't a back in the league that can handle that... Few backs can handle half of that without missing a game or three due to injury...

Parker will split carries with another back... It's that simple... I guarantee it.... And he will NOT be the goal line back... I promise you that.... His specialty is working in space... He's no good with short yardage and goal line work... Cowher knows that...

Like I said time and again this year, Willie Parker is a poor man's Warrick Dunn... He is not, nor will he ever be, an elite back... Not in that system... He will ALWAYS share carries... Period... End of story...


Well, 60% of 549 is 329, which those guys of Parker's size have done plenty of times. ;)

But it doesn't really matter, as I'm not sure I'm getting your point here. What does it matter whether he goes 300/1400 with 6 TDs when his team has 300 carries total or he goes 300/1400 with 6 TDs when his team has 3000000 carries total? It's all the same in fantasy football..

Sure, he'll likely be the "between the 20s" guy, but he was already the #13 RB as the "between the 20s" guy, with only 5 TDs. Anything more is just gravy in that regard. Besides, it's not like guys with goalline vultures can't score more TDs, Dunn scored 9 in '04 and Tiki scored 11 this year, both with goalline vultures.

For him to not be a "solid #2" guy for 12 team leagues his numbers would not only have to go down, but go down significantly. Thusfar the arguement I'm seeing is that he will share a little more than half of a large amount of carries and not get the goalline carries, which is exactly what he had this year. You're building a worst case scenario for the same scenario that just resulted in him statistically being the best #2 RB this year (just going by ranking 13th in a 12 team league).

The moves we've seen thusfar only improve that with Bettis retiring, and I think the odds of Pitt having a shot at one of the top RBs this offseason are pretty slim, leaving the chances pretty high that whoever takes Bettis' spot is going to get an even smaller piece of the pie than Bettis did.
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Postby wizbang » Tue Feb 07, 2006 3:31 pm

Excellent discussion. Some of my comments.

1. The number of carries and YPC simply don't lie. Parker can and has carried the load. He had nearly 300 carries when you count the postseason and he missed one game. IMO that is not an issue in this debate. The point about what % of the carries 300 will be is completely irrelevant.

2. Parker didn't catch many passes. That is the #1 area he could possibly improve. He averaged below 2 catches per game but in their first three playoff games he caught 3 apiece and took one to the house. Now he'll likely have his first full offseason as a projected starter to work on receiving so it's entirely possible he will improve.

3. While Parker will certainly still have a TD vulture, I doubt it will be as severe as Bettis. Bettis fired up the team when he went in the game. He brought instant energy. With him gone maybe Duce or Haynes or a draft pick or FA will enter this role. I suspect we'll see that person inside the 2 or 3 rather than inside the 15 or so as was the case with Bettis. I think Bettis held a special role that will not be completely filled. Maybe this alone could push his rushing TDs up around 7 or 8. Add a receiving TD or two and he could put up 10 total fairly easily. That puts him on the fringe of Top 10 RBs.

4. The biggest, BY FAR, concern for Parker owners is draft day. NO WAY do I see LenDale white falling but I could see Maroney. I think Maroney is a stud but he's not exactly the thunder guy many feel the Steelers want. Even so, this day will be a nervous one for Parker owners. I'm less concerned about FA. IMO Pitt will be content to merely resign their guys and possibly grab an experienced backup (if they sour on Staley).

I'm not overly high on Parker but right now he looks pretty good as a #2 RB next year. Barring draft day or FA disasters (for Parker owners anyway) I can't find anywhere near 24 better options at RB.
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Postby daullaz » Tue Feb 07, 2006 5:40 pm

As far as the draft goes, I don't even see Maroney being available at #32, much less LenDale White. I figure White to the Vikings and Maroney to the Panthers (to supplant injury-prone Foster), but if Maroney slips the Colts will snatch him up at #30.

W.P. is a solid #2 RB in every format.
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Postby Kensat30 » Tue Feb 07, 2006 6:51 pm

The thing that hurts Parker the most is the goalline carries. Pittsburgh is just not like other teams in terms of goalline carries. If Parker is not the goalline RB, he is not gonna score from 3 yards out, period. Tiki Barber and Warrick Dunn will get their share of punch in TDs. Willie Parker will get NONE.

Pittsburgh is really the only team in the NFL that has a goalline RB. Hear me out here, other teams will have a specialist come in or another RB back come in on occasion, perhaps even the majority of the time. But Pittsburgh has that guy come in EVERY SINGLE TIME. When they get inside of the 3 yard line there is a package where Pittsburgh puts a certain RB on the field in a certain formation, and dares you to stop the run game. And they're pretty much the only team in the league that will do that.

TDs are just too important in fantasy football.
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Postby MadScott » Tue Feb 07, 2006 7:26 pm

Kensat30 wrote:The thing that hurts Parker the most is the goalline carries. Pittsburgh is just not like other teams in terms of goalline carries. If Parker is not the goalline RB, he is not gonna score from 3 yards out, period. Tiki Barber and Warrick Dunn will get their share of punch in TDs. Willie Parker will get NONE.

Pittsburgh is really the only team in the NFL that has a goalline RB. Hear me out here, other teams will have a specialist come in or another RB back come in on occasion, perhaps even the majority of the time. But Pittsburgh has that guy come in EVERY SINGLE TIME. When they get inside of the 3 yard line there is a package where Pittsburgh puts a certain RB on the field in a certain formation, and dares you to stop the run game. And they're pretty much the only team in the league that will do that.

TDs are just too important in fantasy football.
I totally get what you are saying, but let me ask, how much of that do you think was a function of having Bettis as the back and how much of it do you think is the Pitt O?
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Postby Free Bagel » Tue Feb 07, 2006 8:52 pm

MadScott wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:The thing that hurts Parker the most is the goalline carries. Pittsburgh is just not like other teams in terms of goalline carries. If Parker is not the goalline RB, he is not gonna score from 3 yards out, period. Tiki Barber and Warrick Dunn will get their share of punch in TDs. Willie Parker will get NONE.

Pittsburgh is really the only team in the NFL that has a goalline RB. Hear me out here, other teams will have a specialist come in or another RB back come in on occasion, perhaps even the majority of the time. But Pittsburgh has that guy come in EVERY SINGLE TIME. When they get inside of the 3 yard line there is a package where Pittsburgh puts a certain RB on the field in a certain formation, and dares you to stop the run game. And they're pretty much the only team in the league that will do that.

TDs are just too important in fantasy football.
I totally get what you are saying, but let me ask, how much of that do you think was a function of having Bettis as the back and how much of it do you think is the Pitt O?


Bingo, I was thinking the exact same thing as I read.
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Postby Azrael » Tue Feb 07, 2006 10:40 pm

Good points all around; however, one less situation I have to worry about when I do not draft FWP.
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Postby bigGAME101 » Wed Feb 08, 2006 1:49 am

I agree with the last few posts. It is true that the biggest concern for Parker will be the draft, as I do not foresee the Steelers looking to pick up one of the expensive FAs, especially when Parker proved he is a capable starter. If you simply watch the progression of the Steelers offense throughout the season, you know that they changed much of the plays in accordance with Parker's style - i.e. screens, pitches, and runs off-tackle. IF the Steelers get a compliment to Parker, it will be a big bruiser in the same way Bettis was. In this draft, only White is that type of power back who would have a significant impact on Parker's numbers. All of the RBs (top 4) will be gone by the Steelers pick, leaving Parker as the go-to guy again next year. Again, they could sign an FA, but the bigger backs like Najeh and Lewis are either going to be resigned, or expect big contracts. The Steelers, probably by default, are going to have to work with Parker and alternate Duce in there from time to time, if he is even still with the team come next year. I dont know about the rest of you, but I like Parker's chances much more with Staley than with Bettis on hand.
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