VBD Cheatsheet....

[Plindsey88]

OK, so I finished running through my value-based-draft results from last year, and I thought I would share it with you guys... Keep in mind, this list is based solely on the statistics from the 2005 season, and makes no adjustments for probable personnel changes, etc. for 2006....

For those of you not familiar with value based drafting, the basic premise is that you should draft players based on how they compare to players at their own position versus how they compare to players at other positions... The following results are based strictly on a VBD formula, which includes a positional scarcity modifier for the standard (1) QB, (2) RB, (3) WR, (1) TE starting roster requirements....

Be prepared, the results may shock you....

Here are rounds 1-12:


1 ) Shaun Alexander - RB

2 ) Larry Johnson - RB

3 ) Tiki Barber - RB

4 ) LaDainian Tomlinson - RB
5 ) Edgerrin James - RB
6 ) Terrell Owens - WR

7 ) Steve Smith - WR
8 ) LaMont Jordan - RB

9 ) Torry Holt - WR
10 ) Anquan Boldin - WR
11 ) Priest Holmes - RB
12 ) Domanick Davis - RB

13 ) Santana Moss - WR
14 ) Clinton Portis - RB
15 ) Larry Fitzgerald - WR
16 ) Antonio Gates - TE
17 ) Marvin Harrison - WR
18 ) Chad Johnson - WR

19 ) Joey Galloway - WR

20 ) Donovan McNabb - QB
21 ) Rudi Johnson - RB
22 ) Corey Dillon - RB

23 ) Chris Chambers - WR
24 ) Carson Palmer - QB
25 ) Brian Westbrook - RB
26 ) Marc Bulger - QB
27 ) Hines Ward - WR
28 ) Jeremy Shockey - TE
29 ) Samkon Gado - RB
30 ) Thomas Jones - RB
31 ) Tom Brady - QB
32 ) Mike Anderson - RB

33 ) Todd Heap - TE
34 ) Plaxico Burress - WR
35 ) Peyton Manning - QB
36 ) Steven Jackson - RB

37 ) Michael Vick - QB
38 ) Chris Cooley - TE
39 ) T.J. Houshmandzadeh - WR
40 ) Alge Crumpler - TE
41 ) Terry Glenn - WR
42 ) Matt Hasselbeck - QB

43 ) Jason Witten - TE
44 ) Donald Driver - WR
45 ) Kerry Collins - QB

46 ) Ben Roethlisberger - QB
47 ) Eli Manning - QB
48 ) Randy Moss - WR

49 ) Byron Leftwich - QB
50 ) Tony Gonzalez - TE
51 ) Rod Smith - WR
52 ) Keenan McCardell - WR
53 ) Drew Bledsoe - QB
54 ) Drew Brees - QB
55 ) Jake Plummer - QB
56 ) Kurt Warner - QB

57 ) Roy Williams - WR
58 ) Trent Green - QB
59 ) Steve McNair - QB
60 ) David Garrard - QB
61 ) Aaron Brooks - QB
62 ) Eddie Kennison - WR

63 ) Jimmy Smith - WR
64 ) Jake Delhomme - QB
65 ) Randy McMichael - TE
66 ) Donte' Stallworth - WR
67 ) L.J. Smith - TE
68 ) Reggie Wayne - WR
69 ) Jerramy Stevens - TE
70 ) Mark Brunell - QB

71 ) Ben Troupe - TE
72 ) Heath Miller - TE
73 ) Warrick Dunn - RB

74 ) Dallas Clark - TE
75 ) Julius Jones - RB
76 ) Deion Branch - WR
77 ) Joe Jurevicius - WR
78 ) Erron Kinney - TE
79 ) Carnell Williams - RB

80 ) Ben Watson - TE
81 ) Willie Parker - RB

82 ) Derrick Mason - WR
83 ) Daunte Culpepper - QB
84 ) Antonio Bryant - WR
85 ) Marcus Pollard - TE
86 ) Jerry Porter - WR

87 ) Chris Baker - TE
88 ) Kyle Boller - QB

89 ) Brett Favre - QB
90 ) Drew Bennett - WR
91 ) Jermaine Wiggins - TE
92 ) Keyshawn Johnson - WR
93 ) Steve Heiden - TE

94 ) Daniel Graham - TE
95 ) Bobby Engram - WR

96 ) Lee Evans - WR
97 ) Kevin Curtis - WR
98 ) Courtney Anderson - TE
99 ) Laveranues Coles - WR

100 ) Eric Moulds - WR
101 ) Willis McGahee - RB
102 ) Reuben Droughns - RB
103 ) Braylon Edwards - WR
104 ) Amani Toomer - WR
105 ) Ernest Wilford - WR
106 ) Chris Brown - RB

107 ) Muhsin Muhammad - WR
108 ) David Givens - WR

109 ) Brandon Lloyd - WR
110 ) Isaac Bruce - WR

111 ) Andre Johnson - WR

112 ) Stephen Davis - RB

113 ) Eric Parker - WR
114 ) Tatum Bell - RB
115 ) Samie Parker - WR
116 ) Ricky Williams - RB

117 ) Marty Booker - WR

118 ) Joe Horn - WR
119 ) Curtis Martin - RB
120 ) Marcus Robinson - WR

[mattb47]

I'm really surprised at how low some of the players are such as:
68) Reggie Wayne
73) Warrick Dunn
75) Julius Jones
79) Carnell Williams
81) Willie Parker
101) Willis McGahee
102) Reuben Droughns
106) Chris Brown

It just seems low for all of them because none of them had really that terrible of years last year....

[Plindsey88]

I'm really surprised at how low some of the players are such as:
68) Reggie Wayne
73) Warrick Dunn
75) Julius Jones
79) Carnell Williams
81) Willie Parker
101) Willis McGahee
102) Reuben Droughns
106) Chris Brown

It just seems low for all of them because none of them had really that terrible of years last year....

I have to agree... I was shocked to see some of those guys so low, as well.... But the numbers don't lie...

All of those guys had mediocre overall fantasy numbers when compared to the other guys at their positions....

[ShoelessJoe]

to further explain VBD, could you give an example of some scores... maybe like the top 5 or 10 overall or something?

[mattb47]

to further explain VBD, could you give an example of some scores... maybe like the top 5 or 10 overall or something?

Yea, I'd be interested also to see even a partial explanation of the formula you used to compute this....might help me understand a bit more of why people are where they are on here.

[Humpback]

Thanks for the info. I guess this is what I like about fantasy football, a computer can't do it any better than a person. No way is Peyton the #5 QB, nevermind behind 2 guys who didn't even play the whole season. I mean, it can't be based solely on the statistics from the 2005 season- how could TO, Bulger, McNabb, etc. be that high if it was? Anyway, some interesting stuff...

[flotsamnjetsam]

Thanks for the info. I guess this is what I like about fantasy football, a computer can't do it any better than a person. No way is Peyton the #5 QB, nevermind behind 2 guys who didn't even play the whole season. I mean, it can't be based solely on the statistics from the 2005 season- how could TO, Bulger, McNabb, etc. be that high if it was? Anyway, some interesting stuff...

VBD takes into account average per game stats and not the stats for the entire season. That's why TO is ranked the #1 WR. He averaged more yards/game and TD's/game than any other WR. Same thing with Manning. Bulger & McNabb played less games, but they both averaged more yards/game & TD's/game than Manning.

[Plindsey88]

How about I run down the forumla, instead, because the actual scores are meaningless as anything other than a means of comparison....

Let's assign some variables:

a = average fantasy points scored per game by QB's

b = average fantasy points scored per game by RB's

c = average fantasy points scored per game by WR's

d = average fantasy points scored per game by TE's


Now, to find the VBD score for a particular player, you have to first select sets of players to average... I chose roughly 30-40 players at every position - more for WR's....

Once you've chosen your sample sets, you calculate every player's total fantasy points (per game played) within each set and average them...

That will give you your variables a-d (one average for each set, where each set contains only players of a given position)....

Now, within each set, you subtract the set average from each player's actual fantasy points scored per game.... That will give you your raw scores...

You can stop there, combine all the sets, and then sort according to raw scores, OR what I then did was come up with a weighted score for each player based on positional scarcity... I divided each player's raw score by a modifier... The modifier's used were:

32 - quarterbacks
32 - tightends
21.33 - wide receivers
16 - runningbacks


OK, so here's an example:

Let's look at T. Owens....

Owens scored 112.3 fantasy points in 7 games last year... Giving him a per game average of 16.043

Of the wide receivers I chose as my WR sample set, the average number of points scored per WR per game was 7.974...

Therefore, Owens typically scored 8.069 MORE points per game than the average WR....

I then divided that raw score by 21.33 since Owens is a WR, and I ended up with a weighted score of 0.3783.

I did a similar analysis of each player on the list, and once I had a weighted score for each player, I sorted the list accordingly... The list you see above, is the resulting list after the sort....


Now, if you are interested in seeing the weighted scores, here they are (negative scores indicate that a player performed worse than the average):

1 ) Shaun Alexander - RB : 0.7018
2 ) Larry Johnson - RB : 0.5904
3 ) Tiki Barber - RB : 0.4721
4 ) LaDainian Tomlinson - RB : 0.4651
5 ) Edgerrin James - RB : 0.3986
6 ) Terrell Owens - WR : 0.3783
7 ) Steve Smith - WR : 0.2951
8 ) LaMont Jordan - RB : 0.2842
9 ) Torry Holt - WR : 0.2527
10 ) Anquan Boldin - WR : 0.2363
11 ) Priest Holmes - RB : 0.2342
12 ) Domanick Davis - RB : 0.2312
13 ) Santana Moss - WR : 0.2189
14 ) Clinton Portis - RB : 0.2151
15 ) Larry Fitzgerald - WR : 0.2148
16 ) Antonio Gates - TE : 0.2104
17 ) Marvin Harrison - WR : 0.2094
18 ) Chad Johnson - WR : 0.2040
19 ) Joey Galloway - WR : 0.1791
20 ) Donovan McNabb - QB : 0.1689
21 ) Rudi Johnson - RB : 0.1666
22 ) Corey Dillon - RB : 0.1630
23 ) Chris Chambers - WR : 0.1471
24 ) Carson Palmer - QB : 0.1436
25 ) Brian Westbrook - RB : 0.1416
26 ) Marc Bulger - QB : 0.1397
27 ) Hines Ward - WR : 0.1372
28 ) Jeremy Shockey - TE : 0.1292
29 ) Samkon Gado - RB : 0.1236
30 ) Thomas Jones - RB : 0.1215
31 ) Tom Brady - QB : 0.1197
32 ) Mike Anderson - RB : 0.1165
33 ) Todd Heap - TE : 0.1051
34 ) Plaxico Burress - WR : 0.1049
35 ) Peyton Manning - QB : 0.1023
36 ) Steven Jackson - RB : 0.0998
37 ) Michael Vick - QB : 0.0923
38 ) Chris Cooley - TE : 0.0892
39 ) T.J. Houshmandzadeh - WR : 0.0869
40 ) Alge Crumpler - TE : 0.0859
41 ) Terry Glenn - WR : 0.0821
42 ) Matt Hasselbeck - QB : 0.0796
43 ) Jason Witten - TE : 0.0742
44 ) Donald Driver - WR : 0.0718
45 ) Kerry Collins - QB : 0.0716
46 ) Ben Roethlisberger - QB : 0.0646
47 ) Eli Manning - QB : 0.0634
48 ) Randy Moss - WR : 0.0613
49 ) Byron Leftwich - QB : 0.0575
50 ) Tony Gonzalez - TE : 0.0562
51 ) Rod Smith - WR : 0.0554
52 ) Keenan McCardell - WR : 0.0531
53 ) Drew Bledsoe - QB : 0.0519
54 ) Drew Brees - QB : 0.0506
55 ) Jake Plummer - QB : 0.0503
56 ) Kurt Warner - QB : 0.0502
57 ) Roy Williams - WR : 0.0470
58 ) Trent Green - QB : 0.0444
59 ) Steve McNair - QB : 0.0415
60 ) David Garrard - QB : 0.0402
61 ) Aaron Brooks - QB : 0.0379
62 ) Eddie Kennison - WR : 0.0370
63 ) Jimmy Smith - WR : 0.0314
64 ) Jake Delhomme - QB : 0.0311
65 ) Randy McMichael - TE : 0.0283
66 ) Donte' Stallworth - WR : 0.0261
67 ) L.J. Smith - TE : 0.0244
68 ) Reggie Wayne - WR : 0.0232
69 ) Jerramy Stevens - TE : 0.0228
70 ) Mark Brunell - QB : 0.0217
71 ) Ben Troupe - TE : 0.0164
72 ) Heath Miller - TE : 0.0160
73 ) Warrick Dunn - RB : 0.0135
74 ) Dallas Clark - TE : 0.0077
75 ) Julius Jones - RB : 0.0071
76 ) Deion Branch - WR : 0.0065
77 ) Joe Jurevicius - WR : 0.0053
78 ) Erron Kinney - TE : 0.0040
79 ) Carnell Williams - RB : 0.0034
80 ) Ben Watson - TE : -0.0021
81 ) Willie Parker - RB : -0.0027
82 ) Derrick Mason - WR : -0.0067
83 ) Daunte Culpepper - QB : -0.0072
84 ) Antonio Bryant - WR : -0.0079
85 ) Marcus Pollard - TE : -0.0080
86 ) Jerry Porter - WR : -0.0099
87 ) Chris Baker - TE : -0.0155
88 ) Kyle Boller - QB : -0.0159
89 ) Brett Favre - QB : -0.0206
90 ) Drew Bennett - WR : -0.0211
91 ) Jermaine Wiggins - TE : -0.0213
92 ) Keyshawn Johnson - WR : -0.0225
93 ) Steve Heiden - TE : -0.0229
94 ) Daniel Graham - TE : -0.0261
95 ) Bobby Engram - WR : -0.0284
96 ) Lee Evans - WR : -0.0331
97 ) Kevin Curtis - WR : -0.0337
98 ) Courtney Anderson - TE : -0.0362
99 ) Laveranues Coles - WR : -0.0383
100 ) Eric Moulds - WR : -0.0438
101 ) Willis McGahee - RB : -0.0455
102 ) Reuben Droughns - RB : -0.0471
103 ) Braylon Edwards - WR : -0.0494
104 ) Amani Toomer - WR : -0.0504
105 ) Ernest Wilford - WR : -0.0512
106 ) Chris Brown - RB : -0.0535
107 ) Muhsin Muhammad - WR : -0.0644
108 ) David Givens - WR : -0.0644
109 ) Brandon Lloyd - WR : -0.0712
110 ) Isaac Bruce - WR : -0.0734
111 ) Andre Johnson - WR : -0.0825
112 ) Stephen Davis - RB : -0.0876
113 ) Eric Parker - WR : -0.0910
114 ) Tatum Bell - RB : -0.0922
115 ) Samie Parker - WR : -0.0953
116 ) Ricky Williams - RB : -0.0964
117 ) Marty Booker - WR : -0.1032
118 ) Joe Horn - WR : -0.1164
119 ) Curtis Martin - RB : -0.1188
120 ) Marcus Robinson - WR : -0.1191

[Plindsey88]

Thanks for the info. I guess this is what I like about fantasy football, a computer can't do it any better than a person. No way is Peyton the #5 QB, nevermind behind 2 guys who didn't even play the whole season. I mean, it can't be based solely on the statistics from the 2005 season- how could TO, Bulger, McNabb, etc. be that high if it was? Anyway, some interesting stuff...

Per game....

[mattb47]

Thanks Plindsey. It makes more sense now. It probably would have been better if you had made a minimum games played added into that but you did way too much work as it is. Very nice work though!