Very Early QB Rankings & Projections

[The Lung]

From Ryan Houston at FantasyFootball.com: http://www.fantasyfootball.com/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=894

Ryan Houston: Very Early QB Rankings & Projections
Date: Feb 23/06

There is nothing worse than the offseason to a Fantasy Football fanatic! We sit around wondering what we are going to do different next season while at the same time scavenging through raw data on obscure college players who hope to make a fantasy impact in 2006. We have problems...there is no doubt about it. If you are like me you are probably still wondering why Antwaan Randle El couldn't get one reception in the final three minutes of that game against Indianapolis (costing me an undefeated season in NFFC by .8 points) and those moments continue to eat at you. Considering I actually have a draft or two that I need to prepare for I figured I'd share my very early 2006 rankings. Obviously these will change over the next few months, but I wanted to throw a bone to my fellow scavengers.

1. Peyton Manning

Say what you want about this guy but when it comes to fantasy there is nobody close. 8304 passing yards and 77 touchdowns over the last two seasons combined. Incredible.
2006 VE Projection: 4220 Yards Passing / 31 TDs / 10 INTs

2. Tom Brady

There is something to be said about consistency. Set a career high with over 4100 yards passing in 2005.
2006 VE Projection: 3910 Yards Passing / 27 TDs / 15 INTs

3. Donovan McNabb

A healthy Brian Westbrook and the signing of a top notch free agent wideout and he'd be a lock for this spot.
2006 VE Projection: 3760 Yards Passing / 22 TDs / 11 INTs

4. Carson Palmer

He'd obviously be much higher if it wasn't for the torn ACL he suffered in the playoffs. His recovery time will be crucial.
2006 VE Projection: 3500 Yards Passing / 28 TDs / 16 INTs

5. Matt Hasselbeck

The loss of Shaun Alexander would put even more pressure on him to carry the load. A steady performer who will get you solid fantasy totals.
2006 VE Projection: 3300 Yards Passing / 23 TDs / 10 INTs

6. Jake Delhomme

If they can find a complimentary option to Steve Smith and steady RB option...watch out!
2006 VE Projection: 3800 Yards Passing / 27 TDs / 16 INTs

7. Marc Bulger

There is no doubt when Bulger is in the game he puts up terrific numbers. The problem is he doesn't stay in too often.
2006 VE Projection: 3240 Yards Passing / 21 TDs / 18 INTs

8. Trent Green

His 19 TDs left everyone scratching their head but very few noticed he put up his third straight 4,000-yard season.
2006 VE Projection: 3810 Yards Passing / 18 TDs / 12 INTs

9. Eli Manning

His play in the second half of last season left a very bitter taste in my mouth. He'll have to prove to me he is capable of overcoming that meltdown once again.
2006 VE Projection: 3890 Yards Passing / 22 TDs / 17 INTs

10. Kurt Warner

I'm a bit higher on him than most but if you add a capable running back to the mix you might be looking at one of the most explosive offenses in the entire league. You WANT the QB associated with that offense.
2006 VE Projection: 3330 Yards Passing / 25 TDs / 19 INTs

11. Drew Brees

I'm concerned about the labrum injury and where he is going to end up next season. I simply don't believe he will be in San Diego next year.
2006 VE Projection: 2910 Yards Passing / 20 TDs / 16 INTs

12. Daunte Culpepper

Speaking of concerns.... this guy falls from Top 10 pick to outside of the fifth round on my board. I can't get a gauge on his health or mindset.
2006 VE Projection: 3000 Yards Passing / 21 TDs / 18 INTs

13. Ben Roethlisberger

Health has been a concern but at some point this young player is going to want to prove he's much more than an acceptable QB.
2006 VE Projection: 2640 Yards Passing / 19 TDs / 10 INTs

14. Jake Plummer

The decrease in INTs was solid, but the decrease in TDs really hurt. Don't expect anything spectacular.
2006 VE Projection: 3170 Yards Passing / 17 TDs / 12 INTs

15. Drew Bledsoe

Plenty of weapons but how will the loss of offensive coordinator Sean Payton affect this not-so-young fantasy option?
2006 VE Projection: 2960 Yards Passing / 19 TDs / 17 INTs

16. Brett Favre

If he plays and Javon Walker returns to health you could do much worse at this point (see ALL of the names below).
2006 VE Projection: 3300 Yards Passing / 20 TDs / 22 INTs

17. David Carr

Since it appears he won't be taking snaps for another franchise let's assume the Texans will fortify the offensive line and draft Reggie Bush. Huge pluses in my book.
2006 VE Projection: 2780 Yards Passing / 18 TDs / 14 INTs

18. Byron Leftwich

You just keep hoping he turns the corner, but like the RB in Jacksonville, he simply can't stay healthy.
2006 VE Projection: 2800 Yards Passing / 16 TDs / 11 INTs

19. Rex Grossman

Call it a hunch but with an increased emphasis on the passing game Rex could be a solid fantasy option in 2006.
2006 VE Projection: 2500 Yards Passing / 17 TDs / 14 INTs

20. Michael Vick

I've jumped off the bandwagon and wouldn't even consider him a fantasy starter unless he's playing at home against a pitiful defense.
2006 VE Projection: 2380 Yards Passing / 14 TDs / 14 INTs

The Best of the Rest

21. Steve McNair
22. Mark Brunell
23. Alex Smith
24. Chris Simms
25. Kyle Boller
26. Matt Leinart
27. Chad Pennington
28. Vince Young
29. Charlie Frye
30. Gus Frerotte

Not bad, but I think he overvalues Jake Delhomme and undervalues Culpepper a bit. (Assuming Daunte is a healthy return)

[knapplc]

Not bad, but I think he overvalues Jake Delhomme and undervalues Culpepper a bit. (Assuming Daunte is a healthy return)

I was surprised to see Homey that high, too. I don't see how Bulger is that high - if they don't get a better line to protect him, he's too fragile to last an entire season. I'm not keeping Bulger next year, and I've had him for three straight years.

Culpepper is about where he belongs, IMO. I think we can all see that the Loss of Moss has affected his game considerably. He has a lot of proving to do before I'll believe that his success wasn't a product of his pairing with Moss. (along the same lines, I think Moss has the same thing to prove)

I don't like Warner that high, either. He's so injury-prone; one good lick and he's done for the rest of the game, if not injured and out. His decision-making leaves a lot to be desired. Still, with that receiver corps, he's always dangerous. 25 TDs is a stretch, though.

Eli had a sophomore slump, plain and simple. He's probably worthy of a 10-13 ranking. I think his future looks really, really bright.

IF the Texans draft a decent RB and shores up that O-Line (and that'll take a LOT of shoring), and IF that RB produces well enough to keep defenses honest, then I think Carr is way undervalued at 17. But that's a lot of "ifs" to overcome.

Grossman is a prime sleeper candidate in 2006 and could finish the season much higher than this guy rates him at #19, but for the moment I think this is a pretty good spot for him.

I think Vick is overvalued at 20. I've never, ever thought he was anything special from a Fantasy perspective.

I think he overvalues Gus Frerotte.

[WickedSmaat]

I think he does value a bit too much on Bulger, especially if he puts up the projected numbers stated. But if he can stay healthy I can see Bulger putting up even better numbers than that with the new coach and recieving corps that they have in STL.

[The_Captain]

If TO joins the Broncos, I think Jake Plummer would move up the rankings and his "projected" TD's would increase too.

[maddog60]

Between no Moss and concerns he may not start the season, Culpepper's rank is justified.

I think Bulger and Warner are too high for the same reasons Culpepper is so low, they can't be counted on week to week.

I think Plummer is undervalued. I'm not a huge Plummer fan, but he finished 5th in 2004, started off slow, but came on in 2005, and well, the interest Denver has in TO tells me they're serious about improving the passing game. That tells me Plummer belongs top 10. Probably right above Trent Green.

Brees is only justified being so low because he may no stay in SD, of course if he goes somewhere else like Miami, he could be even better than as in SD.

This is a really good ranking and analysis. Even though I disagree with some of the rankings like Leftwich, the author's logic is sound and no one seem astronomically out of place.

[steelerfan513]

pretty good overall, but i see some problems.

1. he overvalues players such as donovan mcnabb and daunte culpepper. mcnabb wont have as good of weapons this year, and health could be a concern. culpeppers injury is catastrophic; i think i heard something about him being out for part of the '06-'07 season. even if he is healthy, minnesota has no one to support him.

2. he undervalues players such as chris simms and ben roethlisberger. i know theyre both considered sleepers, but he should pick at least one to have a breakout season. both have a lot of weapons and a lot of skill.

[merc]

Err..... late results... not included, or are they?

As mentioned, Plummers value rises with a TO to throw to...

and

how will T Brady's hermia surgery impact his ability to toss the ball to inferior WRs in 2006?

[steelerfan513]

Err..... late results... not included, or are they?

As mentioned, Plummers value rises with a TO to throw to...

and

how will T Brady's hermia surgery impact his ability to toss the ball to inferior WRs in 2006?

the broncos may not have enough cap space to sign TO, and i wouldnt underestimate plummer.

also, brady has thrown to what appear to be average receivers for years. he will do fine.

[merc]

But will doing fine, do?

[knapplc]

But will doing fine, do?

Brady has compared comparably with the second-tier of fantasy QBs for the past several years. As a Bulger owner, I know that he's often a sexy pick in the early rounds based on the style of offense and receivers available in St. Louis, but over the past three seasons or so, Brady's TD numbers are better than Bulger's.

Brady is a solid QB in fantasy. He may not be flashy, but he's consistent, and in that position that's what you really need. Guys like Manning circa 2004 come once in a great while. A steady producer like Brady is worthy of a top-ten rating when you look at his numbers year in and year out.