Personally, I see things working out for Rudi this year. I'm optimistic that Palmer will be healthy and pick up where he left off. I also don't see Perry as too much of a threat. Here's why: Perry showed a great talent as a third down back and a good feel for catching out of the backfield. That being said, I look at the Chris Henry situation and how that may play out. If it ends up not favorable, I look for Perry to split out a little more as the third wideout in some packages. He really didn't hurt Rudi this year that much, as Rudi played through an injury and still topped his own team single season rushing record.
With all that said, I lik Rudi somewhere mid to late first in a 12 team redraft. Somewhere between 6 and 12.
I'm a bengals fan and I love rudi, but he's not a mid 1st rd back imo. in a 10-12 team league he's an 8-11 pick imo. a late 1st rder who will give you solid, if unspectacular production week in and week out. Personally, I would choose other backs who are less proven, but with more potentail over rudi. Guys like s jackson, mcgahee, cadillac, lamont
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I believe he belongs in the second tier of Running Backs that will go anywhere from the mid first round the the early second.
These are guys i would put ahead of him:
Rudi is really in a great situation. Hes got an awesome offensive line, a great passing game, and he also has a backup that spells him but doesnt take away any of his TDs. Last year i watched a half dozen Bengals games and i think they underutilize him. They dont seem to give him carries even when he is doing well. i.e. that first pittsburg game when he just ran over them the first draft and almost disapeared after that. Although i wouldnt put him in "Elite" status quite yet i would be happy to have him as my number 1 back if i had a mid to late first round pick. He doesnt have as high of a ceiling as guys like Ronnie Brown, Caddy, or S Jax but you know what you are going to get from him.
the two things that keeps rudi off of some peoples first round boards is the fact that he does not get alot of receiving yards and that he starts the first half really slowly.
1450 12td's two years straight ,even with the slow start, is still consistent enough for me to take him in the first round of say a 10-12 team points league. h2h i would be a little troubled taking him in the first as you need consistency on a weekly basis. even still as i am not a proponent of taking anything but a RB in the first round i would still take hime in a h2h league of that size in the later half of the round.
i'd put him in the same tier right now as mcgahee,jordan and jackson. to me right now on this date rudi has outperformed all three of them and ,with the exception being jackson, is in a much better offense (palmer or not. he did well enough with kitna and shouldn't be without palmer for long if at all) . those two i would put neck and neck .
Before I show any love or disdain for the guy I wanna see what happens with the draft, cause bush will affect Dom's value and what's edges situation going to be etc.. Too many head coaching changes and unproven at that. But as things stand now I would say as most have already twist my arm late first early mid second.
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Rudi, Willis McGahee, steven jackson, LaMont Jordan, Cadillac, Brian Westbrook
Dunn, KJ, etc. etc...
The biggest arguments to these dropoffs are probably going to be Westy in tier 3 and maybe leaving out Dominick Davis or Ronnie Brown or a Jones brother (not biological always). To those people...
if DD is the only back he moves up, if Ricky is gone Ronnie brown moves up, the jones all have competition except KJ, but he underwhelmed.
Westbrook is going to catch so many passes with TO gone that he might get 900 yards receiving plus 900 rushing when all is said and done.
back on topic:
Rudi is going to get 10-15 TDs, and 1400-1700 total yards. The low end of that is 12.5 ppg. Rudi is not super consistent, and i think we argued extensively last season santacruzer, but he rarely just drops off and gets 17 yards because he always gets his carries. He gets a serious downgrade in PPR, but in standard Performance TD leagues he is a top back.
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In a recent keeper draft (12 team, PPR league) I picked him at 1.11.
There were 10 RB's picked in the 1st round
LJ, LT2, & SA went 1-3
Portis, Jordan, & Tiki went 4-6
Manning went 7th
James & SJax went 8-9
CJ went 10th
Rudi & Westy went 11-12
There were 4 RB's picked in the 2nd round. They went, in order:
This was before the news about Ricky's possible suspension. I wanted a RB in the 1st round and I debated between Rudi, Westy, & Caddy. To me the only negative on Rudi was that he doesn't get a lot of PPR. Westy might have been a better pick in a PPR league, but the fact that Rudi has had consecutive 1400 yard/12TD seasons and is in the more explosive offense made me pick him over Westy & Caddy. The owner who picked 1.12 & 2.1 picked Westy & Caddy. He later said that he wanted 2 out of Rudi, Westy, & Caddy and was going to pick the 2 that I didn't pick.
I definitely think Rudi is a very solid late 1st/early 2nd round pick.