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Rudi Johnson, what is he worth to you?

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Postby steelerfan513 » Tue Feb 28, 2006 3:58 pm

skibrett15 wrote:In my opinion, there is a big drop between

LT, SA, LJ

drop(duh)

Edge, Portis, Tiki

drop

Rudi, Willis McGahee, steven jackson, LaMont Jordan, Cadillac, Brian Westbrook

drop

Dunn, KJ, etc. etc...

The biggest arguments to these dropoffs are probably going to be Westy in tier 3 and maybe leaving out Dominick Davis or Ronnie Brown or a Jones brother (not biological always). To those people...
if DD is the only back he moves up, if Ricky is gone Ronnie brown moves up, the jones all have competition except KJ, but he underwhelmed.
Westbrook is going to catch so many passes with TO gone that he might get 900 yards receiving plus 900 rushing when all is said and done.

back on topic:
Rudi is going to get 10-15 TDs, and 1400-1700 total yards. The low end of that is 12.5 ppg. Rudi is not super consistent, and i think we argued extensively last season santacruzer, but he rarely just drops off and gets 17 yards because he always gets his carries. He gets a serious downgrade in PPR, but in standard Performance TD leagues he is a top back.


you failed to include ronnie brown in that mix. dont you think he deserves to be in that group with stephen jackson and rudi???
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Postby Kensat30 » Wed Mar 01, 2006 7:29 pm

Solid #2 RB

Seriously guys, don't draft 2 downs RBs as your #1 guy. Jamal Lewis should have taught you that lesson last season. That 3rd down RB can make a bigger impact than you think. Notice how Rudi didn't really start picking it up until Perry started getting hurt again late in the season....

What was it Rudi had like 2 TDs 9 weeks into the season before he started going off? Chris Perry coming in near the goalline in passing formations? Chris Perry coming in as a change of pace for series at a time? Scary to have a #1 RB that is held below 100 yards and without a TD for weeks at a time. At least Clinton Portis breaks long runs occasionally and is used in the passing game.
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Postby Dexter II » Wed Mar 01, 2006 8:03 pm

I like Rudi but it depends somewhat on the scoring system. Overall, I would say early to mid 2nd in 10 or 12 team leagues. Maybe a little later for leagues that have points per reception because he isn't thrown to a lot. Also, the presence of Perry is somewhat of a wildcard too.

LJ
LT2
SA
Edge
DD
Peyton
Tiki
Westbrook
Deuce
S. Jackson
Owens
Julius Jones
McGahee
Portis
Jordan
C. Williams
are all guys who will generally go higher or around where Rudi goes.
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Postby skibrett15 » Thu Mar 02, 2006 12:32 am

steelerfan513 wrote:
skibrett15 wrote:In my opinion, there is a big drop between

LT, SA, LJ

drop(duh)

Edge, Portis, Tiki

drop

Rudi, Willis McGahee, steven jackson, LaMont Jordan, Cadillac, Brian Westbrook

drop

Dunn, KJ, etc. etc...

The biggest arguments to these dropoffs are probably going to be Westy in tier 3 and maybe leaving out Dominick Davis or Ronnie Brown or a Jones brother (not biological always). To those people...
if DD is the only back he moves up, if Ricky is gone Ronnie brown moves up, the jones all have competition except KJ, but he underwhelmed.
Westbrook is going to catch so many passes with TO gone that he might get 900 yards receiving plus 900 rushing when all is said and done.

back on topic:
Rudi is going to get 10-15 TDs, and 1400-1700 total yards. The low end of that is 12.5 ppg. Rudi is not super consistent, and i think we argued extensively last season santacruzer, but he rarely just drops off and gets 17 yards because he always gets his carries. He gets a serious downgrade in PPR, but in standard Performance TD leagues he is a top back.


you failed to include ronnie brown in that mix. dont you think he deserves to be in that group with stephen jackson and rudi???

until that happens, he is still down with the rest. Steven Jackson.
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Postby Santacruzer » Thu Mar 02, 2006 3:14 am

Kensat30 wrote:Solid #2 RB

Seriously guys, don't draft 2 downs RBs as your #1 guy. Jamal Lewis should have taught you that lesson last season. That 3rd down RB can make a bigger impact than you think. Notice how Rudi didn't really start picking it up until Perry started getting hurt again late in the season....

What was it Rudi had like 2 TDs 9 weeks into the season before he started going off? Chris Perry coming in near the goalline in passing formations? Chris Perry coming in as a change of pace for series at a time? Scary to have a #1 RB that is held below 100 yards and without a TD for weeks at a time. At least Clinton Portis breaks long runs occasionally and is used in the passing game.

You hit the "Nail on the head" with that Kensat.

It wasn't just a coincidence that he put up better numbers the more Perry was missing time.
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Postby Kensat30 » Thu Mar 02, 2006 2:00 pm

Santacruzer wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:Solid #2 RB

Seriously guys, don't draft 2 downs RBs as your #1 guy. Jamal Lewis should have taught you that lesson last season. That 3rd down RB can make a bigger impact than you think. Notice how Rudi didn't really start picking it up until Perry started getting hurt again late in the season....

What was it Rudi had like 2 TDs 9 weeks into the season before he started going off? Chris Perry coming in near the goalline in passing formations? Chris Perry coming in as a change of pace for series at a time? Scary to have a #1 RB that is held below 100 yards and without a TD for weeks at a time. At least Clinton Portis breaks long runs occasionally and is used in the passing game.

You hit the "Nail on the head" with that Kensat.

It wasn't just a coincidence that he put up better numbers the more Perry was missing time.


Of course the odds on another injury to Michigan RB Chris Perry are pretty high, but still you don't want to have to bet on an injury(even a likely one) to justify a first round draft pick.
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Postby Stelly » Thu Mar 02, 2006 4:57 pm

Kensat30 wrote:
Santacruzer wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:Solid #2 RB

Seriously guys, don't draft 2 downs RBs as your #1 guy. Jamal Lewis should have taught you that lesson last season. That 3rd down RB can make a bigger impact than you think. Notice how Rudi didn't really start picking it up until Perry started getting hurt again late in the season....

What was it Rudi had like 2 TDs 9 weeks into the season before he started going off? Chris Perry coming in near the goalline in passing formations? Chris Perry coming in as a change of pace for series at a time? Scary to have a #1 RB that is held below 100 yards and without a TD for weeks at a time. At least Clinton Portis breaks long runs occasionally and is used in the passing game.

You hit the "Nail on the head" with that Kensat.

It wasn't just a coincidence that he put up better numbers the more Perry was missing time.


Of course the odds on another injury to Michigan RB Chris Perry are pretty high, but still you don't want to have to bet on an injury(even a likely one) to justify a first round draft pick.


It seems weird to me that a guy who, for the past 2 years, has ripped off 1,400 yards and 12 TDs is a "decent #2." To me, that's #1RB numbers. He may go late first, early second round, but he's still a #1 RB in my estimation.

I drafted Rudi a 2.8 in a 10 team league last year. Good pick. Now, I have the option to keep him for my 1.8 pick next season. Considering who's going to be kept at RB (LJ, Tiki, Portis, Jordan, SJax, Cadillac, R. Brown), I think he's a good keeper at 1.8. Agree/Disagree?!
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Postby Keyser_WV » Thu Mar 02, 2006 5:17 pm

Stelly wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:
Santacruzer wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:Solid #2 RB

Seriously guys, don't draft 2 downs RBs as your #1 guy. Jamal Lewis should have taught you that lesson last season. That 3rd down RB can make a bigger impact than you think. Notice how Rudi didn't really start picking it up until Perry started getting hurt again late in the season....

What was it Rudi had like 2 TDs 9 weeks into the season before he started going off? Chris Perry coming in near the goalline in passing formations? Chris Perry coming in as a change of pace for series at a time? Scary to have a #1 RB that is held below 100 yards and without a TD for weeks at a time. At least Clinton Portis breaks long runs occasionally and is used in the passing game.

You hit the "Nail on the head" with that Kensat.

It wasn't just a coincidence that he put up better numbers the more Perry was missing time.


Of course the odds on another injury to Michigan RB Chris Perry are pretty high, but still you don't want to have to bet on an injury(even a likely one) to justify a first round draft pick.


It seems weird to me that a guy who, for the past 2 years, has ripped off 1,400 yards and 12 TDs is a "decent #2." To me, that's #1RB numbers. He may go late first, early second round, but he's still a #1 RB in my estimation.

I drafted Rudi a 2.8 in a 10 team league last year. Good pick. Now, I have the option to keep him for my 1.8 pick next season. Considering who's going to be kept at RB (LJ, Tiki, Portis, Jordan, SJax, Cadillac, R. Brown), I think he's a good keeper at 1.8. Agree/Disagree?!


You must not have read the above post because it perfectly explains why he is not a #1 RB.

He is only in for 1st and 2nd down and if they are in a hurry up situation Rudi will be on the sideline.

How was your record the first 10 weeks of the season when Rudi had 2 TD's?

The first 9 weeks of the season Rudi scored UNDER 10 points 6 out of 9 games.

He did not go off until Perry got hurt. If Perry doesn't go down Rudi's numbers wouldn't have been as good.

He is a solid #2 fantasy RB.

If Rudi is going to be your #1 keeper RB in a 10 team league you may be in trouble if Perry stays healthy.
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Postby Humpback » Thu Mar 02, 2006 7:00 pm

He absolutely is a #1 RB. He's way more than a solid #2. He's not the "elite" top 5 RB, but if he's your #1 RB, you can still win. I agree that he has question marks, including the 2 downs, etc., but the bottom line is, he produces. Of course he would produce more if he was in for all 3 downs, but the numbers don't lie- he gets the job done. The fact that he produced so well with Perry out should lead them to utilize him more in the future, and with Palmer a question for the beginning of the season, I expect him to actually get off to a decent start this season, making it his best yet. 1600 total yds. and 14 TD's seems about right. Again, not SA or LJ numbers, but they are legit #1 numbers.
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Postby skibrett15 » Fri Mar 03, 2006 12:38 am

He is not the ideal No. 1 RB in the original sense of the word where everyone grabbed 2 RBs off the bat. There I would agree... but he produces more with each carry than some guys that are in there for all 3 downs. At this point the 3 down backs who still get some love on the goaline are:
LT, SA, LJ, Edge, Portis, Willis McGahee, Steven Jackson, LaMont Jordan. Tiki gets so much receiving yardage that he qualifies as a no. 1 even though he doesn't always get the goaline TDs/touches. So that is 9 RBs who you can consider having a better situation than Rudi. Ronnie brown-not until ricky leaves. Cadillac-not until Alstott leaves/retires. perhaps you could include Kevin Jones and Deuce McAllister but at what point are touches outweighing actual production? With only 9 guys potentially ahead, Rudi is a no. 1 RB love it or hate it in 10 team leagues.

Chris Perry Missed 2 games last season. Weeks 14 and 15 and he returned in week 16 to have 8 carries, his most since week 2.
In those 2 weeks Rudi had one game for 117/2 and another for 88/0. Rudi's best stretch came in the games leading up to weeks 14 and 15... from weeks 10-13. He exibited a trend that looked likely to continue whether or not perry was injured.
I think that Rudi's poor (relatively) play in weeks 1-8 was attributed to poor play-calling as he averaged 4.2 YPC during that span-reflective of his very good 4.3 YPC for the year. He didn't get the goaline love as teams underestimated Carson and he was burning them for deep scores as they stacked the box. I really don't think the argument can be made that Perry was a factor in Rudi's poor fantasy stats. The playcalling was much more of a factor. Also consider that Rudi was rested the final two weeks of the season.
check it out:
http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/players/p ... 005/235094
http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/players/p ... 005/493027
here's carson's as well:
http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/players/p ... 005/396173

You guys are typecasting people as "mid-second rounders" but do a quick 2 round mock for yourself. You may find that the reason you think they are a 2nd rounder is due to the overall weakness of this year's fantasy prospects. Rudi will have to be a late 1st/early 2nd in typical 12 team leagues this season because there aren't enough better picks than him that force him to the 18th overall player.
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