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Edge signs with the Cards

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Postby J2thez929 » Mon Mar 13, 2006 12:54 am

I've been skimming through some very well thought out and informative posts and I want to commend you guys for some good info so far.

My take on this is that it definately decreases Edge's fantasy value for a few reasons.

1. Arizona's o-line is nowhere near the quality of the Colts

2. Kurt Warner is nowhere near the quality of Manning(right now)

3. Arizona doesn't have a great defense so they need to pass in order to say in games. If you look at last year's numbers you will be shocked by how many times Zona passed the ball every game.

4. Arizona's running attack has not been stellar for a while. Until they produce a consistant, stable, running game you have to downgrade Edge's fantasy value.

Just my 2 cents
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Postby maddog60 » Mon Mar 13, 2006 1:01 am

Ydub wrote:Here are the numbers from Edge's last four starts in the '05-'06 season. Please note that these are legitimate starts (I'm discounting week 17 and adding the playoff game against PIT):

69 carries for 215 yards and 2 TD's. No 100 yard days and no multiple TD games. That breaks down to 54 yds/g, 3.1 ypc, and 0.5 TD's/G. Very pedestrian.


So you're counting week 16 against the Seahawks in which the team had absolutely nothing to play for as a legit start?

Also, you're not taking into account that James only had 13 carries in 3 of those 4 games. You're also ignoring the 121 receiving yards he put up during those games, that's only another 30 yards per game, nothing big or anything.

Why exactly should we base his value off of misleading stats about the one game all year in which a defense shut him down, a game in which his team had nothing to play off, a game in which he did well, but just wasn't used, and another game that was a typical day in the park for him?
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Postby Ydub » Mon Mar 13, 2006 1:48 am

maddog60 wrote:
Ydub wrote:Here are the numbers from Edge's last four starts in the '05-'06 season. Please note that these are legitimate starts (I'm discounting week 17 and adding the playoff game against PIT):

69 carries for 215 yards and 2 TD's. No 100 yard days and no multiple TD games. That breaks down to 54 yds/g, 3.1 ypc, and 0.5 TD's/G. Very pedestrian.


So you're counting week 16 against the Seahawks in which the team had absolutely nothing to play for as a legit start?

Also, you're not taking into account that James only had 13 carries in 3 of those 4 games. You're also ignoring the 121 receiving yards he put up during those games, that's only another 30 yards per game, nothing big or anything.

Why exactly should we base his value off of misleading stats about the one game all year in which a defense shut him down, a game in which his team had nothing to play off, a game in which he did well, but just wasn't used, and another game that was a typical day in the park for him?


Perhaps some of those numbers are bit misleading (I prefaced the post with "some numbers to chew on"). But there's simply no way you can gloss over 3.1 ypc. I was being very generous when I called it "pedestrian". It's not pedestrian. It's horrid. And it's an absolutely relevant segue to his upcoming career behind that atrocious "O-line" in AZ (whose numbers you very conveniently ignored...care to debate those?).

Arizona RB's rushed for 885 yards. 885 yards! At this stage in his career, do you really think Edge can double that total? He's gonna need to be pretty damn close to justfy a top 5 selection. If you can, PLEASE let me know if there's an opening in one of your leagues. I could use the money.
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Postby Estarr01 » Mon Mar 13, 2006 7:42 am

What kills a RB's value? A defense that can't stop the opposing team because that forces the offense to constantly pass the ball to keep up. What do we all know about Ariz, their defense sucks, which forces them to pass alot to keep in games. This is why there passing game is so good and why there WR's are great picks, you know there defense has problems stopping other teams so they will have to pass a lot to stay in games.

The best case scenario for a RB? A good offense, but a good defense to, look at T. Jones this year, great D so the games were close and therefore he got a lot of carries. I'm not saying this applies to all RB's, the truly great ones LJ, SA and LT2 can do it no matter what the scenario is, but even those guys are dependant on a defense that keeps them in the game.

Point is that in a situation where the defenses are abysmal the RB's value normally would be downgraded because his opportunties would diminish, this is what I think will happen to Edge.

I personally would put the guy in the early part of the 2nd round right now and I expect him to get about 1200 yards and 6 TD's next year.
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Postby Mercer Boy » Mon Mar 13, 2006 9:41 am

Sorry I didn't get to put in my thoughts during the big discussion; I was busy yesterday. :-)

I think I would be a very wary Edge owner at this point. You simply don't know what he can do in Arizona until he gets there in my opinion. I mean, Emmitt Smith was there a few years ago and almost got 1000 yards, and he was an elite back for many years behind an awesome line. Of course, he was also getting up there in age at the time, so it's hard to say whether he would have busted any long TD's in his prime.

Arizona has great skill position players at this point. Warner is a bit of a wild card, but QB's can still do well in advanced age as long as they get time to throw. Will he though? Hard to say. If the defense doesn't improve, then Edge will get less carries as they will be forced to throw more.

I guess best case scenario for Edge in my view is that he becomes a Faulk-type guy in the Rams scheme where he'll start to catch out of the backfield more and get a decent amount of carries. If he does that, he should be fine. It would really be good to see the offensive line improved though. I don't think this will affect the WR's all that much...they're going to throw a bunch whether they are winning or losing.

The Cardinals have the chance to become the Rams of 7 years ago, but there are a lot of ifs involved in the equation. I would rank Edge a little lower, but still surely a first round draftable RB.
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Postby Dan Lambskin » Mon Mar 13, 2006 9:57 am

not sure if this was covered in some of the longer posts that i only skimmed, but it seems to me the last few years that Edge doesnt break any long runs and his nice numbers come from getting a consistent 4-5 yards on 20-25 carries. he doesnt seem to take many losses either...it's just short consistent runs

with a poor O-line like Zona's i can see a lot more of these 4-5 yard rushed turning into 2-3 yards, and without that home run ability i see his numbers dropping considerably.

and as far as goal line, which i dont think Zona see's much of anyway, Edge used to get pulled for Dominic Rhodes or Mungro half the time, so i dont even know how he'll do there

he does have some good recieving skills, so i think he's still a 1st round pick, but i havent really thought about where i'd take him. i dont think i'd want him on my fantasy squad though
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Postby louisianacajunsam » Mon Mar 13, 2006 11:32 am

a good way for edge to hurt his career ypc...

should have went with jax
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Postby wizbang » Mon Mar 13, 2006 11:54 am

The good: Edge, Fitz, Boldin, Denny Green

The bad: OL, Warner (in my book), TE

I wonder if Arizona will draft Vernon Davis? That would make for a scarey group at the talent positions. The best thing this team could do is trade for Culpepper. That would help minimize the impact of a poor OL (especially since teams would have to worry about Cpepp's running). Edge's stock clearly took a big hit but he will probably still be a first round pick with some upside.
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Postby onnestabe » Mon Mar 13, 2006 12:16 pm

wizbang wrote:The good: Edge, Fitz, Boldin, Denny Green

The bad: OL, Warner (in my book), TE

I wonder if Arizona will draft Vernon Davis? That would make for a scarey group at the talent positions. The best thing this team could do is trade for Culpepper. That would help minimize the impact of a poor OL (especially since teams would have to worry about Cpepp's running). Edge's stock clearly took a big hit but he will probably still be a first round pick with some upside.


I think they have enough weapons on offense right now (no one is mentioning their #3 WR, who is quite good, even though his name escapes me at the moment). At this point, they need to be focusing on defense and O-line.

I also think a trade for Culpepper would be a bad move for them. Warner is more than adequate for now, and I think anyone has to have doubts about Culpepper's health (he won't be running away from many defenders for about another 9 months). Also, I am not convinced that Culpepper is good enough to carry a team. No reason to trade for a huge question mark when you already have a QB that you are sure of (you pretty much know what Warner is capable of at this point).
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Postby saundman2000 » Mon Mar 13, 2006 12:23 pm

onnestabe wrote:
I think they have enough weapons on offense right now (no one is mentioning their #3 WR, who is quite good, even though his name escapes me at the moment). At this point, they need to be focusing on defense and O-line.

I also think a trade for Culpepper would be a bad move for them. Warner is more than adequate for now, and I think anyone has to have doubts about Culpepper's health (he won't be running away from many defenders for about another 9 months). Also, I am not convinced that Culpepper is good enough to carry a team. No reason to trade for a huge question mark when you already have a QB that you are sure of (you pretty much know what Warner is capable of at this point).


Yeah, but AZ better figure out who the heir apparent to Warner is since they threw McCown out of the bus. Warner is not going to last much longer. He could conceivably be knocked out this year with injury before he is even in consideration for the starting job next year. They better be:

A) Grooming a good QB prospect
B) Acquiring a serviceable #2 backup QB

Otherwise all this potential that everyone is getting so excited about is going to be squandered. What they do in the draft might make all the difference.
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