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Joe Horn

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Postby onnestabe » Thu Mar 16, 2006 3:11 pm

Mercer Boy wrote:Horn will obviously get talked about A LOT in fantasy circles. He isn't going to be sleeping on anyone; in fact, if anything he'll get overvalued. Everyone knows Brees is better than Brooks at managing a game and hitting receivers, and that will raise his draft value. It will also raise Stallworth's value back to whatever it normally is each year when we expect him to bust out. :-b


I know that Stallworth is always a popular sleeper pick, but I think his stock is higher this year than ever. Last year, he made it through a season with no major injuries, and showed that he can perform as the #1 receiver. Also, Sean Payton showed last year that he doesn't mind spreading the ball around, with Keyshawn and Terry Glenn each having their share of big games.

I agree that Horn will probably be overvalued, but given his age and injury risk, Donte should have some value in the later rounds.
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Postby VaderFin » Thu Mar 16, 2006 3:32 pm

Like Mercer said I think he will be overvalued not undervalued. What if Brees can't go for several weeks into the season? I'm never excited about a WR in his mid 30s, I'll let someone else overspend for him.
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Postby Kensat30 » Thu Mar 16, 2006 3:38 pm

I don't like how Horn dissappeared after he came back from that injury. Stallworth, although still erractic, seemed to maintain his hold on the #1 WR slot in that offense. OF course an offseason can change anything, especially now that Broken Arm Brees is at QB, but Horn's injury may have signaled the start of his decline. The offense is going to be working with an injured QB who is new to the system, a RB coming off an ACL tear, new coaches, etc. not the best place for a WR to be. And even though normally Horn can play through anything and play well despite the circumstances, he really started to look OLD last year.

Eric Moulds was never really the same after he had that groin pull in 2003..

I expect Horn's numbers to go up this coming season, but he may be reborn as a old vet ala Jimmy/Rod Smith type WR who will see something along the lines of 1000-1100/6-7 compared to his past numbers that went into 1200-1300/9-11.

There is the risk that Stallworth may have turned the corner at the same time Joe Horn stepped off the cliff, and that could put even further pressure on Horn getting his numbers... I still like Horn as a solid WR#3, but I wouldn't want to take a shot at him early on in the draft. 7th round would be a good price tag to put on the guy, but I doubt he drops into double digit rounds where he would be a very nice value.

For where I think Stallworth/Horn will be drafted, I would put an emphasis on grabbing Stallworth and his potential as the #1 WR. I would expect him to go AFTER Horn in the draft, unless Horn is really off people's radar. Now that Stallworth has actually shown something (outside of his 8 TDs as a rookie), I think he is a very attractive sleeper pick in the draft. The time has finally come from Stallworth! (When have you heard that before)
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Postby Dan Lambskin » Thu Mar 16, 2006 4:16 pm

sadly his 6 yard performance at the end of the season cost me a win by 1 point in the semis of my big money league, so i dont think i can draft the guy in good faith anymore.

that said, if you can get him 6th round or later, he might have some good value there...not sure he'll slip that far down though
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Postby moochman » Thu Mar 16, 2006 7:42 pm

I do think Brees should help restore Horn's numbers, but I also fear he has started to decline and has been taken over by Stallworth. What he has going in his favor is that Brees doesn't have a strong arm so won't rely on deep patterns that are more to Donte's liking. Horn also (used to) runs more precise routes that should help make him a go to guy for Brees.

I doubt that he will ever put up his old numbers and most FFers will be aware of his potential to rebound, so I think if you're looking at him as a sleeper you could be looking at someone else drafting him ahead of you.
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Postby Ydub » Thu Mar 16, 2006 10:07 pm

Dan Lambskin wrote:sadly his 6 yard performance at the end of the season cost me a win by 1 point in the semis of my big money league, so i dont think i can draft the guy in good faith anymore.

that said, if you can get him 6th round or later, he might have some good value there...not sure he'll slip that far down though


Don't be so sure. I've been trying to unload Horn for over a season and I can't find any takers. No counter offers, no Ashley Lelie's, no sacks of wet hair, no nuthin'. Off the radar? More like off the reservation.
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