Interesting... any particular reason behind this choice?
The only worry I have with JJ is his health. Marion Barber is a competent backup, and played well in his absence, but Jones seemed to get back into the featured role a couple games after he came back from his midseason injury. I think Parcells will give him the ball 25-30 times barring injury, and that bodes well for him.
Honestly, I thought about putting Ronnie Brown, Caddy, McAllister, and Westbrook there, but I think all have equally big concerns be they injury or lack of provenness. Its really more of a hunch than anything separating him from the others I listed.
It's still WAY too early for this, as we won't know much 'til after the draft, but if I were going to rank RB's (standard Yahoo) based on what we know so far:
1) Larry Johnson
2) Shaun Alexander
3) LaDanian Tomlinson
4) Tiki Barber
5) Rudi Johnson
6) Clinton Portis
7) Edgerrin James
8) Stephen Jackson
9) LaMont Jordan
10) Ronnie Brown
11) Julius Jones
12) Cadillac Williams
13) Brian Westbrook
14) Willie Parker
15) Willis McGahee
16) Dominic Rhodes
17) Warrick Dunn
18) Reuben Droughns
19) Deshaun Foster
20) Corey Dillon
21) Jamal Lewis
22) Deuce McAllister
23) Domanick Davis
24) Kevin Jones
25) Tatum Bell
26) Thomas Jones
27) Chester Taylor
28) Ahman Green
29) Greg Jones
30) Chris Brown
31) Kevan Barlow
32) Derrick Blaylock
Last edited by Plindsey88 on Mon Mar 20, 2006 12:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
mattb47 wrote:Ok....first off, don't act like you know me or really anyone else here at the cafe since you "haven't been here very long" and try to tell me what I thought when Portis went to Washington in the first place. I was one who knew he would have a rocky start and he was on zero of my fantasy teams that year. Secondly, you didn't say why Portis can be compared to Kevin Jones and I have given specific reasons why he can't. Ok, we'll take away Portis's Denver stats but you can't ignore the increase in yardage and TDs from his first year with Washington to his 2nd year. He had 6 TDs in his last 5 games because they were finally starting to run the offense the way they should, and how they will run it next season. You are completely downplaying the value of signing Al Saunders as their Offensive Coordinator, a good coordinator can have a very big impact on a team, especially an offense that is getting better like Washingtons.
Brunell may not be as good as he once was, but his numbers last season were far from terrible. 3050 yards, 23 TDs, 10 INTs, with an 85.9 QB rating. This was his first season that he played over 10 games in 3 years so you can't quite count those two years previously and even then he had an 85.7 QB rating so I think you can expect him to stay pretty steady around this production. And...how exactly is KC's weapons better than Washingtons? Sure Gonzalez is better than Cooley but Cooley is no pushover as a TE.....and I would definitely take S. Moss, B. Lloyd, and A. Randle-El over Kennison, S. Parker, and D. Hall. I think you just don't understand Joe Gibbs style of football and how much it does matter that Al Saunders is in Washington. His offense will be centered around Portis, it's as simple as that, and Portis's numbers will get better because of it.
I wouldn't be too quick to say that Ricky is out of the picture, i have heard many optomistic views that his appeal could fall his way and he could be playing again. Even if Ricky is out of the picture however, there is nothing that tells me that Ronnie is capable of taking the full load for an entire season. Until he's proven that he can't be considered top 5 for draft purposes.
I've been here long enough to notice the patterns. Don't get me wrong, this is by far my favorite place for information. I just don't put much stock in these kinds of threads. Everyone is looking at each others top 10 and just shuffling them around 1 or 2 spots.
You put Edge at #8 so that is exactly the kind of blind optimism that led to people drafting Portis early. So maybe you avoided that blunder 2 years ago but you are headed towards it this year.
The reason Portis can be compared to Jones is the strong finish leading to high expectations for next year. Now I'm not saying he's going to be injury riddled and put up no fantasy number likes Jones. I'm just saying those last 6 games had led to an inflated draft position. Your specific reasons why they couldn't be compared were mostly Denver based. I'm throwing those out. Sure, he increased his numbers but I see them as a ceiling. Is Cartright going to be the goal line back next year? I remember hearing he was going to be used like that next year. And Betts is the 3rd down back, right? I dunno, I just don't like his situation as much as some others. (Off topic, but speaking of bad situations, Brandon Jacobs should be stealing even more of Tiki's TD's next year. I think he got hurt at some point and Tiki actually got goal line carries for a little while. Expect Tiki's TD's to dip even lower next year)
Brunell sucks. He may have been injured lately but he NEVER threw more than 20 TD's until last year. You can't ignore that. And 190 yds/gm does not count as impressive. In 2004 he did play over half a season and put up a QB rating in the 60's, but I suppose you'd like to ignore that? The guy will probably throw 1.1 td/gm and 175 yds/gm next year. The chances are just not good that he'll be hitting Moss w/all those fluke hail mary's or 70 yd screen passes. The defensive pressure will be on Portis next year.
Moss, Lloyd, and El do not impress me but they are better than KC's WR's. But Green >> Brunell and LJ > Portis and Gonzo >> Cooley. But what stands out to me is KC's o-line. It is the best in the league (even if it is getting old). If you switched the o-lines, I'd be all over Portis. But that's not the case. I never disagreed w/you that Portis would be the center of the offense. Everyone else is average at best on that offense so I think it is blatantly obvious that Portis will be the center. And I think that will be the problem for him.
You are completely right that Ricky may not be out of the picture. But he is as of now, so that's the way I'm ranking my players (and even if he's back, aren't they looking to trade him?). There is no guarantee Portis won't get hurt next season, so I'm not banking on Brown getting hurt, either. I'm not going to wait around on what could very well be his break out year just so he can prove to me that he can handle a full load. You can wait. He's got the talent, he's got the talent around him, and now he's got the job. He's got all the makings for a top 10 back. But oh, wait, he's missing the proof that he can handle a full season. Oh no, take him out. Sorry, I don't think like that. He's staying in my top 10 until Ricky comes back.
You're still trying to talk like you are the only person thinking clearly here and that we're all dead wrong because we have similar top 10s.....don't try to act like you are so much more knowledgeable about fantasy football than people on here.
Edge is a very good RB and I highly doubt he will drop below the 8-10 range even in a place like Arizona. Hmm....I wonder where Portis dropped to in rushing when he went from Denver to Washington....maybe it was 5th to 8th (boy I would sure hate for Edge to drop that far).
I expect the situation for Portis to be just the same as last year where they will run the ball a lot. You see the end of the year as a simple jump in statistics that will lead to nothing, but with the success of the team that came with that jump, you have to believe they will do more of the same next season. You still haven't addressed the prospect of having Saunders as the OC, you are ignoring it but it is a huge deal. Saunders coming in can only improve that offense, which will mean better numbers than last year for Portis, not worse.
I don't think Brunell will be expected to put up huge numbers next year. During that winning streak at the end of the season Brunell just went in there and was efficient. He had no games in that winning streak with over 163 yards, he didn't even really play spectacular at all, but they were winning. Expect a similar offensive approach next season.
I'm kind of confused now at how you can predict Ronnie Brown to be so high even though he's never carried the load for a season and how that is different than picking Kevin Jones for a strong part of a season? Who's to say that Brown doesn't break down after a few weeks of 25+ carries? Portis has a much less chance of getting hurt, seeing as how he has played 4 full NFL seasons than Brown does playing a partial role in 1 season. You are using a huge double standard here because, yes, Brown's situation is improved from last year, but so has Portis's. Sounds like someone is ignoring his own logic and jumping on the partial season bandwagon.....
Interesting... any particular reason behind this choice?
Barber is more of a thorn in JJ's heal than Alstott is to Cadillac. But both Alstott and Barber will ensure Jones and Williams stay out of the top 10.
Not high on this choice here either. I see Parcels using Julie as a whipping boy and inserting Barber enough to reduce the fantasy affects JJ should give. I have to downgrade him for that.
The next five are very hard to distingiush as the talent starts to plane out.
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That is not true. I just think that there are waaay too many unknowns for 90% of the people to all have the same top 5 rb's. I mean, there should be a lot of variance in opinions this early in the offseason but there just isn't. Not here anyway. That's why I'm saying that people seem to be in a rut here. I'm just trying to help break that up.
I agree about Edge. I think he is a great RB. If anyone can do it, Edge can. But I just think that there is too much to overcome here. But like I said, it is early and my rankings can change if they draft some good o-line help. But at this point, I can't see Edge improving a team's ypc from 3.1 to 4.4 to match his numbers last year. He's not getting more carries and Arizona has had a LOT of trouble getting to the redzone. Will he help this? Yes. Enough to come close to last year's numbers? No. Every year people sneak into the top 10 and stud dip out. Edge has the most red flags on him so I'm picking him to fall out.
Oh and btw, Portis went from 5th (with 13 games) to 12th (with 15 games) from Den to Was and that was with 53 more carries and 2 more receptions. You really think Edge's carries and receptions will go up? 360 is a pretty heavy load. I think his career max was like 387.
Everyone expected Gibbs to have a huge effect on Portis. Now you are expecting Saunders to have another huge effect? I don't mean to downplay coaching, but I think you are overhyping it. During the offseason it is easy to get caught up w/these things. So that's why I'm not harping on Saunders like you are. He had a hell of a lot more to work with in KC than he does in Washington.
You are questioning my Ronnie Brown pick when you have picked Carnell Williams?!? Seriously... First you say Brown has not proven he can handle a full season. Well at least he hasn't proven he CAN'T handle a full season like Williams did last year. Expect Williams to miss at least 2 games next year and come out early in 2 other games. Didn't he have turf toe? That seems like a recurring injury. Plus, they just signed Alstott. Good luck on Caddy making it to the top 10.
You said Portis has played 4 full seasons, but I'm seeing 16, 13, 15, 16. I don't remember if he was rested for those off games, but I'm not crediting him w/4 full seasons until I know why he missed those 4 games.
There is no similarity to my Brown prediction and the KJ prediction. What the hell are you talking about? Brown's situation has improved. KJ's was the same. Brown was consistent (for a guy splitting carries). KJ had a huge 2nd half after a lackluster first half. Portis had 5 td's his first 11 games and 6 td's in his last 5. That's more similar to KJ than Brown is to KJ. How has Portis' situation improved this year? Randle El and Lloyd are not big pick ups in my book. Big contracts don't make big players. Especially w/Brunell at the helm.
by GreatestShowOnEarth » Mon Mar 20, 2006 12:20 pm
everyone else seems to be throwing out arbitrary early season rankings so i guess i will too.
1) LT2- with the loss of Brees i would expect the chargers to lean on him like they did in 03. Look for his attempts and receptions to go way up.
2) LJ- while LJ had a great last 8 games the age of the Chiefs scares me from putting LJ at the top spot. KC's line is getting up there in age and we have seen what happens when Shields has gone down. Kansas City's passing offense needs to improve for LJ to put up big numbers in 06.
3) SA- no he wont put up numbers like he did last year, especially if the seahawks do in fact lose Hutchinson, but i wouldnt expect SA's numbers to dramatically decrease.
4) Tiki Barber- although he has a TD vulture in Jacobs Barber gains too many yards to be ignored. You cant forget the major part is plays in the passing game as well. Yes he is older but he does not have as many carries as most running backs his age. I still see 2 studly years left.
5) Clinton Portis- with the signing of Al Saunders and the additions on defense and offense Portis has great value at the 5 spot. He has a very high ceiling in the Redskins run first offense and has shown he can put up decent numbers in Washington. I look for Portis to have a very good year.
6) Stephen Jackson- Martz is leaving town hooray! S-jax should finally get the carries that a back of his talent deserves. St. louis still needs to improve the o line to help up running lanes for jackson and to protect an oft injured Bulger. If Bulger can stay healthy i see Jackson having a great year.
7) Rudi Johnson- aka Mr. Consistensy has quitely put up 1500 plus yard seasons the last two years. With a very solid o line and an ever improving Bengals offense i see no reason that Johnson wont put up similar if even better numbers next year.
8) Edgerin James- Im not sure what to think of his situation. i really woudnt feel to comfortable picking Edge as my number 1 back. with his age and his knee surgery, not to mention the fact that Arizona has no o line at the moment i would be very hesitant to pick him at all. He does have big upside though. boldin and Fitz should be able to open lanes for him even if the offensive line cant. If Zona can add a few offensive linemen i think James will be in for a very good year.
9) Ronnie Brown- As long as Ricky does in fact leave Brown is poised for a monster season. The dolphins are improving and have made some key FA acquistions. Brown is utiilized not only in the run game but is a key factor in the passing game. With Chambers strecthing the field and Daunte at the helm Brown is in for quite a sophmore year.
10) Cadillac Williams- the signing of Alstott defintely was a big blow the caddy's value. IF Williams can stay healthy he should be able to put up some impressive yardage totals. Gruden has said that they want to involve him more in the passing game but with Pittman still there i don't see that happening.