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Postby J_rob_the_ Baller » Mon Mar 20, 2006 12:44 pm

here my opinion:

1. LJ - no questions, this guy will put up the best #s amoung RBs

2. LT - interesting to see what he can do without brees, but he did fine when brees sucked, so should be ok

3. SA - Not gonna repeat last year, but still a solid #1 back

4. Tiki - As eli hits his groove, the running game will follow, Tiki doesnt get the credit he deserves

5. Portis - should do well with added passing threats to take pressure off

6. Julius Jones - adding TO should open up their run game. I actaually like marian barber as well, if jones gets hurt.

7. Edge

8. S Jax

9. Ronnie Brown

10. Caddy
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Postby MrTwo94 » Mon Mar 20, 2006 12:48 pm

Plindsey88 wrote:
MrTwo94 wrote:How has Portis' situation improved this year? Randle El and Lloyd are not big pick ups in my book. Big contracts don't make big players. Especially w/Brunell at the helm.


Randle El and Lloyd are not better than James Thrash and a 97-year-old David Patten?


Come on, now....


Did I say they are not better than Thrash and Patten? No, I said they are not big pick ups. We are talking about a WR2 & a WR3 on a run oriented offense with a QB who threw 190 yds/gm. These pick ups did not help Portis much, if at all. Santana Moss was about 50% of the Redskins passing game last year. Just look for them to spread it around a little bit more. Whoopie.
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Postby mattb47 » Mon Mar 20, 2006 12:52 pm

MrTwo94 wrote:That is not true. I just think that there are waaay too many unknowns for 90% of the people to all have the same top 5 rb's. I mean, there should be a lot of variance in opinions this early in the offseason but there just isn't. Not here anyway. That's why I'm saying that people seem to be in a rut here. I'm just trying to help break that up.

I agree about Edge. I think he is a great RB. If anyone can do it, Edge can. But I just think that there is too much to overcome here. But like I said, it is early and my rankings can change if they draft some good o-line help. But at this point, I can't see Edge improving a team's ypc from 3.1 to 4.4 to match his numbers last year. He's not getting more carries and Arizona has had a LOT of trouble getting to the redzone. Will he help this? Yes. Enough to come close to last year's numbers? No. Every year people sneak into the top 10 and stud dip out. Edge has the most red flags on him so I'm picking him to fall out.

Oh and btw, Portis went from 5th (with 13 games) to 12th (with 15 games) from Den to Was and that was with 53 more carries and 2 more receptions. You really think Edge's carries and receptions will go up? 360 is a pretty heavy load. I think his career max was like 387.

Everyone expected Gibbs to have a huge effect on Portis. Now you are expecting Saunders to have another huge effect? I don't mean to downplay coaching, but I think you are overhyping it. During the offseason it is easy to get caught up w/these things. So that's why I'm not harping on Saunders like you are. He had a hell of a lot more to work with in KC than he does in Washington.

You are questioning my Ronnie Brown pick when you have picked Carnell Williams?!? Seriously... First you say Brown has not proven he can handle a full season. Well at least he hasn't proven he CAN'T handle a full season like Williams did last year. Expect Williams to miss at least 2 games next year and come out early in 2 other games. Didn't he have turf toe? That seems like a recurring injury. Plus, they just signed Alstott. Good luck on Caddy making it to the top 10.

You said Portis has played 4 full seasons, but I'm seeing 16, 13, 15, 16. I don't remember if he was rested for those off games, but I'm not crediting him w/4 full seasons until I know why he missed those 4 games.

There is no similarity to my Brown prediction and the KJ prediction. What the hell are you talking about? Brown's situation has improved. KJ's was the same. Brown was consistent (for a guy splitting carries). KJ had a huge 2nd half after a lackluster first half. Portis had 5 td's his first 11 games and 6 td's in his last 5. That's more similar to KJ than Brown is to KJ. How has Portis' situation improved this year? Randle El and Lloyd are not big pick ups in my book. Big contracts don't make big players. Especially w/Brunell at the helm.


I think the top 5 are pretty solid this year so I think that there should be a good amount of agreement on this years top 5 players. I'm not really sure where you're getting 12th place in 2004 for Portis because he was 8th in rushing that year. Finished ahead of the Denver RB Droughns that year as well.

I think that Edge's receptions will definitely go up. When you have a poor offensive line, a lot of passing plays will go awry and now Warner has a guy to dump it off to. Look at a player like Dominick Davis, he gets a lot of receptions on Houston because of that very reason.

I'm not trying to overhype the coaching, but you are acting like it has no affect at all on Portis's value....you are even giving it negative affect which is insane. To hire an OC like Saunders and then expect Portis's numbers to drop doesn't make sense in the slightest.

Williams may have been a bold pick, but you of all people can understand that after your picks. I think that Caddy is a nice pick because he will be used more in the passing game next season. Ronnie is just as bold as Caddy because although Ronnie didn't get hurt, he didn't really have a chance to. So your reasoning that he didn't get hurt and therefore is a better option that Williams is pretty faulty. The big difference between my Caddy pick and your Brown pick is that you have Brown much higher than I have Caddy and ahead of much more proven RBs...I have Caddy barely reaching the top 10, so don't try to compare our two picks like they are the same

There is similarity because the season that everyone thought KJ was going to break out, they looked at the DET offense as having lots of potential to be a big time offense and saw his situation as very good. Way overhyping it but I see a similar thing with the Miami offense this next year. Yes I think they will actually be a better offense next year, but they are way overhyped right now. I say that there is more similarity between Brown and KJ than Portis and KJ simply because Brown has only been in the league for 1 year just as KJ had after his rookie season when everyone thought he would break out. And this year Portis is entering his 5th season and he has been productive each year he has been in the NFL. Even in his really down year he didn't put up bad numbers.

Round and round we go.....you simply seem to have a very low view of Portis and the Redskins offense and I doubt I'll convince you otherwise. So you can go ahead and pick DD and Ronnie Brown at the #5 and #6 spots and I'll be more than happy to be in your league and be at the #9 or #10 spot and grab Tiki or Portis. It is funny to me how you can be so sure about a RB like Brown who has had 1 season in the NFL in a partial role, and be so down on a RB who has produced each season in his NFL career never being out of the top 10 in rushing. But to each his own....I've heard your arguments and not one of them has swayed me a single bit on any of my picks. This will be my last response to the same things you keep saying over and over. Good luck with taking DD at 5 or Ronnie at 6.....hope that works out for ya.
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Postby thriftyrocker » Mon Mar 20, 2006 1:24 pm

Based on end of year, not draft order, I'd say

1. LJ - Best situation of the top 3 - great line, something to prove
2. SA - Barring injury, will be a TD machine
3. LT - Drop in TDs if O struggles
4. Tiki - Each year is the start of his decline, then he gets another 2000 yards
5. Rudi - O will lean on him early, feed him RZ opps late
6. Edge - O will move the ball, but not like Indy
7. Portis - Even with WR upgrade, offense still is mediocre
8. Jordan - If they get Brooks or Volek, he'll continue to be a poor man's Edge
9. SJax - New coach has to use him better than Martz
10. FWP - Assuming the Stillers don't draft anyone, he will have a great year
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Postby maddog60 » Mon Mar 20, 2006 2:02 pm

MrTwo94 wrote:We are talking about a WR2 & a WR3 on a run oriented offense with a QB who threw 190 yds/gm.


Do you think it's at all possible that the weak numbers in the passing game last year were due to the fact that Santana Moss was the only receiving threat? It's not hard at all for most teams to put their top corner on a single threat and shade the free safety to that side. Improving both the #2 and #3 WR spots, making their old #2 now the #4 is a vast improvement to the passing game. It's a lot harder to defend any way you slice it, and will result in a bigger passing game.
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Postby MrTwo94 » Mon Mar 20, 2006 2:18 pm

mattb47 wrote:I think the top 5 are pretty solid this year so I think that there should be a good amount of agreement on this years top 5 players. I'm not really sure where you're getting 12th place in 2004 for Portis because he was 8th in rushing that year. Finished ahead of the Denver RB Droughns that year as well.

I think that Edge's receptions will definitely go up. When you have a poor offensive line, a lot of passing plays will go awry and now Warner has a guy to dump it off to. Look at a player like Dominick Davis, he gets a lot of receptions on Houston because of that very reason.

I'm not trying to overhype the coaching, but you are acting like it has no affect at all on Portis's value....you are even giving it negative affect which is insane. To hire an OC like Saunders and then expect Portis's numbers to drop doesn't make sense in the slightest.

Williams may have been a bold pick, but you of all people can understand that after your picks. I think that Caddy is a nice pick because he will be used more in the passing game next season. Ronnie is just as bold as Caddy because although Ronnie didn't get hurt, he didn't really have a chance to. So your reasoning that he didn't get hurt and therefore is a better option that Williams is pretty faulty. The big difference between my Caddy pick and your Brown pick is that you have Brown much higher than I have Caddy and ahead of much more proven RBs...I have Caddy barely reaching the top 10, so don't try to compare our two picks like they are the same

There is similarity because the season that everyone thought KJ was going to break out, they looked at the DET offense as having lots of potential to be a big time offense and saw his situation as very good. Way overhyping it but I see a similar thing with the Miami offense this next year. Yes I think they will actually be a better offense next year, but they are way overhyped right now. I say that there is more similarity between Brown and KJ than Portis and KJ simply because Brown has only been in the league for 1 year just as KJ had after his rookie season when everyone thought he would break out. And this year Portis is entering his 5th season and he has been productive each year he has been in the NFL. Even in his really down year he didn't put up bad numbers.

Round and round we go.....you simply seem to have a very low view of Portis and the Redskins offense and I doubt I'll convince you otherwise. So you can go ahead and pick DD and Ronnie Brown at the #5 and #6 spots and I'll be more than happy to be in your league and be at the #9 or #10 spot and grab Tiki or Portis. It is funny to me how you can be so sure about a RB like Brown who has had 1 season in the NFL in a partial role, and be so down on a RB who has produced each season in his NFL career never being out of the top 10 in rushing. But to each his own....I've heard your arguments and not one of them has swayed me a single bit on any of my picks. This will be my last response to the same things you keep saying over and over. Good luck with taking DD at 5 or Ronnie at 6.....hope that works out for ya.


Sorry, I was talking fantasy production for RB's. I thought that's what this discussion was about. Droughns was not the starter for the whole year in Denver. Thanks for the worthless comparison.

Edge will be vying with two great receivers for receptions. He had 44 last year. That was 7th for RB's. 3rd place only had 10 more than him. How many more do you think he'll get? Even if you are right, that won't be a huge impact and could easily be offset by fewer carries.

I never said the new OC would have a negative affect. I think Brunell's return to suckiness and Portis' emergence last year will bring more defenders than before. I also said that I believe his late td binge was somewhat of a fluke, so I'd expect his number to end up between 04 (5) and 05 (11). I'm guessing 8 td's right now.

My reasoning on Brown/Caddy is not faulty. Brown has not proven to be an injury risk. Caddy has. So he's innocent until proven guilty. If you don't like that stance then you must at least admit Brown to be a questionable injury risk (he DID have 207 carries and 32 receptions, not exactly child's play) and Caddy is a proven injury risk. Even after Caddy has proven to be an injury risk and it is already known that his TD vulture will be back, you still put him there? That's some faulty reasoning.
Sure I put Brown at 6 in my "way too early in the offseason" rankings. He'll probably be getting about 325-350 carries and 50 receptions in an improving offense. I'm not overhyping their offense. I am only expecting a mild increase. That's about all it would take for that offense to produce a top 10 back. Maybe top 5 if Brown himself improves. I feel that Brown at 6 is less bold than Caddy at 10 for the reasons stated a few sentences back.

I'm not addressing the KJ/Portis paragraph. We are both repeating ourselves too much here.

Just bc I've got people ranked there, doesn't mean I won't take a big name in the first if I think I can get my target player in the second. I'll determine later when things get sorted out who I'll take where, but if my draft was right now, I'm sure I'd have SJax if I get a pick in the middle or even the end. People like you will be drafting guys like Tiki and Caddy 1st/2nd round who lose goal line carries. I'll draft SJax and grab Brown or DD on the way back around and I'll have two top 10 backs. It'll be nice. But that's only if the Texans draft some o-line help instead of a flashier DD (which is also why these rankings are a little silly now).
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Postby MrTwo94 » Mon Mar 20, 2006 2:25 pm

maddog60 wrote:
MrTwo94 wrote:We are talking about a WR2 & a WR3 on a run oriented offense with a QB who threw 190 yds/gm.


Do you think it's at all possible that the weak numbers in the passing game last year were due to the fact that Santana Moss was the only receiving threat? It's not hard at all for most teams to put their top corner on a single threat and shade the free safety to that side. Improving both the #2 and #3 WR spots, making their old #2 now the #4 is a vast improvement to the passing game. It's a lot harder to defend any way you slice it, and will result in a bigger passing game.


No, I think it was bc Brunell sucks. Hail marry's accounted for half of his passing yds (slight sarcasm but probably true for a few games), so if he is able to complete more first downs to Lloyd then it should simply even out.
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Postby BrutallyHuge » Mon Mar 20, 2006 2:32 pm

MrTwo94 wrote:
maddog60 wrote:
MrTwo94 wrote:We are talking about a WR2 & a WR3 on a run oriented offense with a QB who threw 190 yds/gm.


Do you think it's at all possible that the weak numbers in the passing game last year were due to the fact that Santana Moss was the only receiving threat? It's not hard at all for most teams to put their top corner on a single threat and shade the free safety to that side. Improving both the #2 and #3 WR spots, making their old #2 now the #4 is a vast improvement to the passing game. It's a lot harder to defend any way you slice it, and will result in a bigger passing game.


No, I think it was bc Brunell sucks.


This is correct. Brunell sucks. Usually, the simplest answer is the correct one (Occam's Razor, i think?).

It could be that all that mumbo jumbo about lockdown corners, shading free safeties, adding crappy #2 or #3 WRs, etc. Or it could be that their QB sucks...bad. Brunell has always been known as a scrambler...now...he's up there in age and he can't scramble. Oh yeah...he can't throw that well either.
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Postby soupnazi » Tue Mar 21, 2006 10:44 am

i'll shake it up a bit


1) Portis (good OC, improving line, and with better WRs they won't stack the box...he'll finally get his TDs)
2) Alexander
3) LJ
4) LT...I think losing Brees will really hurt his value
5) S Jackson
6) Tiki
7) Edge
8) Jordan
9) R Brown
10) Caddy
11) J Lewis
12) K Jones...this will scare some people...but getting Mooch and Harrington out made him way better
12) McAllister
13) Dillon...will move down if they draft a RB in round 1
14) Rhodes
15) Parker...same as Dillon
16) Westbrook
17) Droughans
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Postby matttyl315 » Tue Mar 21, 2006 11:37 am

has anyone thought of where Dom Davis would be if houston gets smart and either trades down or picks up D'Brick?

I also really like where the last guy put Kevin Jones. He's going to be very underrated this year.

I also like having Dom Rhodes up there. Do you think Indy will rely on a rookie out of the gate?

I'm not saying these things cause I have Davis, Jones and Rhodes on my dynasty team (even though I do).
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