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Schaub, Atlanta and a possible Abraham deal - my thoughts

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Postby michaelavelli » Tue Mar 21, 2006 12:40 pm

You guys ever hear the expression "the most popular player on a football team is usually the backup quarterback."

Shaub has done nothing in the NFL. Nothing. He had one big game against the Patriots, and I'll take off my homer hat and say that Kyle Orton could've thrown for 300+ against that secondary at that time.

Schaub's stat line, abbreviated as it is, shows nothing. A 49.3% completion rate, a 68 QB rating, 5 TDs/4 INTs. I'm not saying this means he's a bad quarterback - I'm just certainly it certainly doesn't mean he's a GOOD one.

Vick, yeah, sure, he makes mental mistakes a lot. And sometimes his style of play isn't right for some situations. But the guy has a .618 winning percentage which is good enough for 4th in the NFL among QB's with at least 35 starts.

4th!

The main knock on Vick is that he'll never take your team to that NEXT level - win a Super Bowl. Are you telling me that MATT SCHAUB is more likely to be able to do that than Michael Vick?

If you think that, read the quote I put at the top and think about why that would be, lol.
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Postby TheDiplomats » Tue Mar 21, 2006 1:25 pm

You can't really take Shaub's stats and tell him what he can or can't do off of a 5/4 career TD/INT ratio. The guy is good and will be worth a FF pickup once he gets the starting gig wherever. He is better then any of the QBs in this years draft.
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Postby Kensat30 » Tue Mar 21, 2006 1:40 pm

Why would the Falcon's trade Schaub now? He's not even a RFA, they have his rights for at least another 2 years. His salary is amazingly cheap and he is a valuable asset at backup QB with experience in their system. Would they rather sign Joey for 5X as much as Schaub? Atlanta is a playoff contender people, start thinking like a GM, backup QB is an IMPORTANT position for ANY team.

Additionally, IMO Schaub is AT LEAST comparable to highly touted/untested rookies like the top10 trio: Leinhart, Cutler, and Young. Those guys have looked great in college, but Schaub has looked great in the NFL preseason/live-game action. He has NFL starts under his belt and has shown that he can be effective in an NFL scheme. Rookies, no matter how highly drafted, are a hit and miss proposition to ever show they can handle business in the NFL. Schaub can handle business.

michaelavelli wrote:You guys ever hear the expression "the most popular player on a football team is usually the backup quarterback."

Shaub has done nothing in the NFL. Nothing. He had one big game against the Patriots, and I'll take off my homer hat and say that Kyle Orton could've thrown for 300+ against that secondary at that time.

Schaub's stat line, abbreviated as it is, shows nothing. A 49.3% completion rate, a 68 QB rating, 5 TDs/4 INTs. I'm not saying this means he's a bad quarterback - I'm just certainly it certainly doesn't mean he's a GOOD one.

Vick, yeah, sure, he makes mental mistakes a lot. And sometimes his style of play isn't right for some situations. But the guy has a .618 winning percentage which is good enough for 4th in the NFL among QB's with at least 35 starts.

4th!

The main knock on Vick is that he'll never take your team to that NEXT level - win a Super Bowl. Are you telling me that MATT SCHAUB is more likely to be able to do that than Michael Vick?

If you think that, read the quote I put at the top and think about why that would be, lol.



Anyone who thinks that Schaub hasn't shown major potential in an NFL game either doesn't understand football or know how to evaluate talent. Which category are you in? Schaub made freaking Brian Finneran look good in NE.. and what is with the Kyle Orton comparison? Are you freaking kidding me? I mean there IS precendence for backup QBs stepping into starting roles and being very productive. Schaub is the far and away the best bet to be the next Matt Hasselbeck/Jake Delhomme. Why would you let someone like that go for cheap?

Michaelavelli I guess what you're saying is that the backup QB in Atlanta is useless because he isn't better than Michael Vick. I guess it makes no sense for a potential NFC #1 seed to have a promising backup QB, with starting experience, with a dirt cheap contract, on the roster at all. In fact, when you have the 4th best QB in the league (based on winning percentage), why even have a backup QB at all?!? Brilliant!

One quick question though, what was Vick's completion percentage, winning percentage, etc. the year he broke his leg in the preseason? Sorry two questions, how many starting QBs in the NFL got injured last year?

And by the way, if you want to compare stats, put them into context. Schaub steps up in his first "real" start of his career, against the defending Super Bowl champs, and puts up impressive numbers with possibly the worst WR core in the entire NFL. Stupid me, it must have been the poor NE secondary that even the legendary Kyle Orton could light up that made that happen. Yes, the man is certainly not "Good".
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Postby bigGAME101 » Tue Mar 21, 2006 3:24 pm

TheDiplomats wrote:You can't really take Shaub's stats and tell him what he can or can't do off of a 5/4 career TD/INT ratio. The guy is good and will be worth a FF pickup once he gets the starting gig wherever. He is better then any of the QBs in this years draft.


He is not better, nor does he have the potential of, Leinart or Cutler. He shows good poise and good decisions in the pocket, which is key for any QB. And I'm not saying he wouldnt be a productive starter, but your argument about him being better than any of this year's QBs is flawed. Seeing as how he and the QBs in this years draft can only be evaluated on potential in the NFL, then he is not a better QB because the Leinart, Cutler, and Young are all projected to be studs, unlike Schaub, who was considered average coming out of college. If, however, you are basing your argument on value, then yes, he is a better value (seeing as how he was taken in the third round) than the QBs this year, all of whom may go in the top ten overall.
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Postby CC » Tue Mar 21, 2006 4:14 pm

Schuab = Mad overrated

You're pimpin' him last he is you brother no1.
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Postby no1cowboysfan » Tue Mar 21, 2006 4:16 pm

awwchrist wrote:Any chance they see this as a business orientated decision?

A Pro-bowl DE franchise type player will command far more money than the best back up QB. Why beat down the wallet and sacrifice the first round pick in the process?

That's just how I see it. They're not in contention for a serious playoff run. So why burn the caproom, a draft pick, and a backup QB who might garnish the same attention/value next season?

If it were Madden though, Schuab would be gone in a heartbeat.


Well, unless I am very much mistaken, Schaub is entering the final year of his contract. So basically Aww, I would agree with you except that this seems to be Schaub's last shot to be traded (unless they go for a mid-season trade, which is unlikely because the new team would want time to develop him).

Yes, it is possible that the Falcons could franchise or transition Schaub, but honestly... do you really think any team is going to shell out 9 mil a year (rough estimate) to franchise a backup QB? This is why Atlanta needs to come to a decision right now. Schaub, (and to everyone else) WHETHER YOU LIKE HIM OR NOT, is the hottest backup QB right now, and definitely garners the most trade value.

The way I see it, the Falcons won't hold onto Schaub next season. There is some team that would gladly bring him in to develop him into a starter ... a chance that he will never have in Atlanta outside of a Vick injury/trade. And so the Falcons can either dump Vick and sign Schaub to a long-term contract (which I honestly doubt will happen), or they can trade Schaub now and get something for him.

The reason they can't trade him next offseason is obvious... if Schaub is set to be an FA, the new team would need time to re-sign him. And if Schaub remains unfranchised or transitioned (very likely), then he would be impossible to dump. Not only that, but teams would be less willing to trade, because they'd know they can simply get him on market, or try to.

This is why Atlanta, I think, will trade Schaub this offseason. If they don't, then either I'd be seeing Vick in a new colored jersey soon, or the FO are morons for sacrificing what could be great value at a trade (for a low cap hit too, considering Schaub's salary is very small) in order to keep a backup QB for ONE year.
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Postby michaelavelli » Tue Mar 21, 2006 11:42 pm

Kensat30 wrote:Why would the Falcon's trade Schaub now? He's not even a RFA, they have his rights for at least another 2 years. His salary is amazingly cheap and he is a valuable asset at backup QB with experience in their system. Would they rather sign Joey for 5X as much as Schaub? Atlanta is a playoff contender people, start thinking like a GM, backup QB is an IMPORTANT position for ANY team.

Additionally, IMO Schaub is AT LEAST comparable to highly touted/untested rookies like the top10 trio: Leinhart, Cutler, and Young. Those guys have looked great in college, but Schaub has looked great in the NFL preseason/live-game action. He has NFL starts under his belt and has shown that he can be effective in an NFL scheme. Rookies, no matter how highly drafted, are a hit and miss proposition to ever show they can handle business in the NFL. Schaub can handle business.

michaelavelli wrote:You guys ever hear the expression "the most popular player on a football team is usually the backup quarterback."

Shaub has done nothing in the NFL. Nothing. He had one big game against the Patriots, and I'll take off my homer hat and say that Kyle Orton could've thrown for 300+ against that secondary at that time.

Schaub's stat line, abbreviated as it is, shows nothing. A 49.3% completion rate, a 68 QB rating, 5 TDs/4 INTs. I'm not saying this means he's a bad quarterback - I'm just certainly it certainly doesn't mean he's a GOOD one.

Vick, yeah, sure, he makes mental mistakes a lot. And sometimes his style of play isn't right for some situations. But the guy has a .618 winning percentage which is good enough for 4th in the NFL among QB's with at least 35 starts.

4th!

The main knock on Vick is that he'll never take your team to that NEXT level - win a Super Bowl. Are you telling me that MATT SCHAUB is more likely to be able to do that than Michael Vick?

If you think that, read the quote I put at the top and think about why that would be, lol.



Anyone who thinks that Schaub hasn't shown major potential in an NFL game either doesn't understand football or know how to evaluate talent. Which category are you in? Schaub made freaking Brian Finneran look good in NE.. and what is with the Kyle Orton comparison? Are you freaking kidding me? I mean there IS precendence for backup QBs stepping into starting roles and being very productive. Schaub is the far and away the best bet to be the next Matt Hasselbeck/Jake Delhomme. Why would you let someone like that go for cheap?

Michaelavelli I guess what you're saying is that the backup QB in Atlanta is useless because he isn't better than Michael Vick. I guess it makes no sense for a potential NFC #1 seed to have a promising backup QB, with starting experience, with a dirt cheap contract, on the roster at all. In fact, when you have the 4th best QB in the league (based on winning percentage), why even have a backup QB at all?!? Brilliant!

One quick question though, what was Vick's completion percentage, winning percentage, etc. the year he broke his leg in the preseason? Sorry two questions, how many starting QBs in the NFL got injured last year?

And by the way, if you want to compare stats, put them into context. Schaub steps up in his first "real" start of his career, against the defending Super Bowl champs, and puts up impressive numbers with possibly the worst WR core in the entire NFL. Stupid me, it must have been the poor NE secondary that even the legendary Kyle Orton could light up that made that happen. Yes, the man is certainly not "Good".


ONE GAME ONE GAME ONE GAME ONE GAME ONE GAME

You can call them the "defending Super Bowl champs" all you want, and they were, but they had a HORRIBLE secondary.

He had ONE GOOD GAME.

Read the posts directly above. He's craaazy overrated.

SCHAUB THE NEXT HASSELBECK HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Trashing on Vick doesn't make Schaub good. And one game against a terrible secondary doesn't make Schaub the next Matt Hasselbeck.

Gus Frerotte threw for 360 against the Pats. Does that make him the next Matt Hasselbeck? No, it makes him the next Gus Frerotte. Schaub in a BEST case scenario will be Gus Frerotte, and until you can point to something other than Michael Vick being injury prone and 1 game against a weak secondary, you lack the credibility to say that OTHER people "don't know anything about football or can't evaluate talent."
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Postby no1cowboysfan » Wed Mar 22, 2006 12:25 am

Actually Mach, I think people like Schaub because he's got the perfect size and character traits to be a succesful QB in the league, fairly good arm strength, a natural leader, a good collegiate career, and has been given that analysis by many, many professional NFL scouts (who evaluate talent for a living, by the way).

But you had some pretty good points too... oh, wait.
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Postby michaelavelli » Wed Mar 22, 2006 5:51 am

no1cowboysfan wrote:Actually Mach, I think people like Schaub because he's got the perfect size and character traits to be a succesful QB in the league, fairly good arm strength, a natural leader, a good collegiate career, and has been given that analysis by many, many professional NFL scouts (who evaluate talent for a living, by the way).

But you had some pretty good points too... oh, wait.


which of the "many many professional NFL scouts" said he was the next Matt Hasselbeck?

seriously, you're wasting everyone's time - cite a source or stop making things up.
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Postby no1cowboysfan » Wed Mar 22, 2006 6:47 am

michaelavelli wrote:
no1cowboysfan wrote:Actually Mach, I think people like Schaub because he's got the perfect size and character traits to be a succesful QB in the league, fairly good arm strength, a natural leader, a good collegiate career, and has been given that analysis by many, many professional NFL scouts (who evaluate talent for a living, by the way).

But you had some pretty good points too... oh, wait.


which of the "many many professional NFL scouts" said he was the next Matt Hasselbeck?

seriously, you're wasting everyone's time - cite a source or stop making things up.


Actually, that wasn't me. I just said he was good. However, it is worth noting that the Falcons held onto a backup QB and instead parted with a first round pick for Abraham in order to keep Schaub. It's also worth noting that Atlanta said they wouldn't relinquish Schaub for a first round pick ... probably a lie, but that's what they claimed.

Oh, and let's break down what I said, shall we?

1) Perfect size & traits. He's 6'5, 237. That IS perfect for the QB position. It's not arguable.

2) Decent arm strength. Ummmm... he does have decent arm strength? No, I haven't arm wrestled the man personally, but you've seen him play. "Decent" isn't exactly high praise. Arm strength isn't a weakness for Schaub, however.

3) A natural leader. Granted, I don't have any stats to back this up as its an intangible, but its worth noting he has every major UV passing record, was an all-ACC QB, and a Heisman candidate. I'd say that makes him a leader somewhat. He was a team captain. He also...
received UVa's John Acree Memorial Trophy, given to the football player who exemplifies the highest qualities of leadership, cooperative spirit, and unselfish service, and the Ben Wilson Award as UVa's most outstanding offensive player following his senior season.


I don't know what the Hell all that is, but I think I've proven my point. He's a leader to his teammates.

4) Scouts like him. Well, I don't have every NFL scout in my basement ready to give me quotes, but here's some blurb from the New York Daily News...

Schaub, 24, isn't a household name, but the former third-round pick from Virginia is highly regarded. In college, he played for former Jets coach Al Groh, who worked with Jets coach Eric Mangini. Groh gave a glowing recommendation of Schaub.


But if you still aren't appeased, let's pull up an article written by one of my favorite journalists ... Michael Smith.

Schaub is safer bet than top college prospects
Smith
By Michael Smith
ESPN.com
Archive

All you heard after this year's Rose Bowl was Vince Young this, Vince Young that. Jay Cutler was the talk of the Senior Bowl and the scouting combine. Now, nearly a week into free agency and six weeks before the draft, the hottest quarterback prospect isn't from college but rather is 24-year-old Atlanta backup Matt Schaub.

Word around the campfire is the Dolphins offered the Falcons a second-round pick and then some (pick or player) for Michael Vick's understudy before they swung a deal with the Vikings for Daunte Culpepper. The Falcons want Jets franchised defensive end John Abraham, but New York's desire for Schaub in exchange is holding up that deal. The Cowboys, Ravens, Titans and Vikings -- all in the market for a young quarterback -- have contacted the Falcons about Schaub and been rebuffed.

It's going to take a lot to pry Schaub -- a third-round pick out of Virginia in 2004 (the fifth quarterback selected) -- from the Falcons, and it's easy to understand why. With injuries and inept performances common, a quality backup quarterback is not a luxury but a necessity. The way Vick plays, he inevitably gets hurt. Schaub stepped in for Vick in Week 5 last year and made a nice résumé tape for himself, shredding the Patriots' defense for 298 yards and three touchdowns in a three-point loss -- this, one week after he impersonated Vick in the second half of a blowout win over the Vikings, running for 56 yards on four carries. Not coincidentally, new Jets coach Eric Mangini was New England's defensive coordinator last year and Vikings owner Zygi Wilf had a front-row (box) seat for Schaub's dynamic relief performance against his defense.

In limited playing time, Schaub has convinced many teams he can be a top-flight starter.

Remember: Three falls ago, Falcons owner Arthur Blank had to watch Doug Johnson quarterback his team when Vick missed most of the 2003 season with a broken leg. For the Falcons to make a deal involving Schaub -- and the impression I got Wednesday from speaking with one high-ranking team official was that he was not "untouchable" -- they have to be able to replace him with someone they feel they can win with when and if Vick goes down for a game or two.

Problem is, not many teams (how about Tennessee with Billy Volek?) can offer the combination of a starting-caliber backup and high pick(s) it takes to get Schaub. So then, it's up to the aforementioned QB-needy teams to make Atlanta a Godfather offer.

If I'm the Jets or Titans, I do darn near whatever it takes to get this kid. It says a lot, doesn't it, that both those clubs -- teams picking third (Titans) and fourth -- are exploring alternatives to drafting a quarterback early. As much as there is to like about Cutler, Young and Matt Leinart, there's no question each has holes in his game. Can Cutler correct the bad habits he developed playing with poor talent at Vanderbilt? (Oh, and FYI: From what I understand, Cutler didn't exactly blow the Jets away during his combine interview.) Can Young cut it as a passer at this level? And how's Leinart going to respond to a pass-rush?

We've seen what a crapshoot picking quarterbacks can be. Crap out early and it can cost you $20 million.

So if I'm going to role the dice, I do it on a guy who's cheap ($385,000 next year, the last of his contract, after which he becomes a restricted free agent) and whom I don't have to try to project as much. Even though Schaub has started only two games, he is 134 regular-season pass attempts more experienced than any of the top prospects.

The Jets took the unusual step of having players break down their college game film at the combine. They already have NFL film on Schaub. You know what he can do against a Bill Belichick scheme, a Ted Cottrell defense, pro competition. With the draft's big three, as Jim Mora's dad once said, you think you know, but you just don't know. I'm guessing the Jets and Titans have some doubts about the top guys and would prefer not to bet the house on an unknown.

Something else that makes Schaub attractive is that he has had great training. His position coach at Virginia was Bill Musgrave, his head coach Al Groh. In Atlanta, he has been tutored by Greg Knapp, who has worked with Pro Bowlers Steve Young, Jeff Garcia and Vick. When you watch Schaub, you see a big (6 foot 5, 237 pounds), poised and accurate passer. You see perhaps the next Mark Brunell or Marc Bulger or Matt Hasselbeck or Jake Delhomme -- all one-time understudies who have gone on to have success as starters. Schaub is bright and makes good decisions. Cutler, Leinart and Young will need time to adjust to the pro game. Schaub is ready to step in and lead right now. Atlanta took care of a lot of the grooming.

The Falcons would like to hold on to Schaub, and that's smart, but if the right offer comes along that could help them improve at several other positions, they'd be foolish not to consider it. Or maybe they just keep him this year, slap the high (first- and third-round pick compensation) restricted tender on him next year and make the rest of the league wait until he's an unrestricted free agent. But his trade value might never be higher than it is right now -- something for the Falcons to think about.

As for any teams thinking about taking a gamble on a quarterback, they might want to consider passing on investing a top-five pick and a large signing bonus in an unproven player. There are very few sure things when it comes to quarterbacks. Anyway, unless you're the Saints -- who pick second -- you don't know for sure whether you'll get the QB you want.

I still believe the top three guys will be good players, but Schaub just might be the best bet. He's certainly the safest.
here.


If you're STILL not appeased, well, I don't really give a damn. Wouldn't want to "waste your time," after all. ;-)

Your time appears to be the only time being wasted, anyhow. Which personally I am sorry for. Seriously, I am. Who would have thought that your opinion might be disagreed with on an online forum? Disagreements and debates are a waste of time... forums should be about 10000 users all agreeing on the same thing. Then discussing how pretty each other's hair is, or something.

I suggest you take the time I didn't waste and think of a better argument ... considering your last one seemed to be banking on the hope that I didn't know how to execute a search on Google.
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