Niners possible 3rd round compensation next year

[proKrastinate]

I picked this up off the niner message boards. It could explain a lot in terms of why the niners are holding back from making a huge splash in FA. Although I tend to value a veteran more than a draft pick because you know to some degree how that player plays in the nfl, I can definately see and understand this if indeed Nolan is holding back for this case. A draft pick can = anything you need to fill a hole whereas the FA pool could be lacking in your holes as a team.

This also might help others in determining why/if their own teams seem to be letting players slip away and not resigning anyone. What d you guys think? Either way I thought it was an interesting read.

Based individually, Peterson's contract would garner a 3rd comp pick next year and Carter would provide a 4th rounder. However, comp pick allocations by the NFL are not made in a vacuum, but are part of a larger formula that looks at the net loss of true unrestricted free agents; players that are released by the former team are not part of the formula or 90% of the players that end up with contracts worth only the minimum salary. The lone exceptions appear to be players with 10+ years in the league and the highest minimum salary.



Here is the 49ers current comp pick balance sheet for 2007:

Comp losses

J. Peterson - $7.7 million average per year would result in as high as a 3rd round comp pick; which is the highest possible comp pick.

A. Carter - $5 million average per year would result in as high as a 4th round comp pick.


Comp gains

A. Bryant - $3.8 million average per year.


At this point Carter and Bryant would cancel each other out and Peterson would result in a 3rd round comp pick next year, 2007. However, if we sign one more true UFA, not released by the former team, for anything more that about $800k per year then the 3rd round pick would become a 7th round pick or nothing at all. And if we sign two more true UFAs the 49ers would definately get nothing.

Walt Harris would not be included in the formula because he was released by the Redskins and Gilmore would not either because he was signed for a low base salary.

If it is important to the 49ers to preserve the 3rd round comp pick next year, the 49ers can only sign players that have been released by their former teams recently and therefore are not true UFAs for purposes of the comp pick formula.

What the 49ers would like to have happen is for other teams to sign our current true UFAs for more than the minimum, with the possible exception of Travis Hall who is a 10-year vet who would likely qualify with a simply minimum salary contract all by itself. Here are the 49ers true unsigned UFAs at the moment:

TE T. Jones
TE/FB S. Bush
LB S. Rasheed
DE T. Hall
FB F. Beasley
OT A. Clement
S M. Anderson

It is possible for the 49ers to get both a 3rd for Peterson and a 4th for Carter next year provided we lose at least two more true UFAs than we sign.

I have listed most of the recently released players from other teams at the bottom. These players are not true UFAs and would not be included in the comp pick formula. Also, resigning current 49ers does not count in the formula and RFAs are never included.



This is taken from AdamJT13 recent post, below, which discusses comp picks for this year. Adam is considered by most to be the most knowledgeable person regarding comp picks on the internet:

"As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula.

Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying the compensatory picks that have been awarded since they began in 1993, I’ve determined that the primary factor in the value of the picks awarded is the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with small adjustments for playing time and postseason honors. A simple method of determining for which qualifying free agents a team will be compensated is this -- for every player signed, cancel out a lost player of similar value. For example, if a team signs one qualifying player for $2 million per season and loses two qualifying players, one who got $1.8 million per season and one who got $4 million per season, the team will be compensated for the $4 million player.

It is possible for a team to get a compensatory pick even if it doesn’t suffer a net loss of qualifying free agents, although those type of comp picks come at the end of the seventh round, after the normal comp picks and before the non-compensatory picks that are added if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. There have been eight of these type of comp picks awarded, and in each case, the combined value of the free agents lost was significantly higher than the combined value of the free agents signed. In all eight cases, those teams lost the same number of qualifying free agents as they signed. No team has ever been awarded a comp pick after signing more qualifying free agents than they lost, no matter how significant the difference in combined value.

...In order to qualify for the comp equation, a player must have been a true Unrestricted Free Agent whose contract had expired or was voided after the previous season (i.e., he cannot have been released by his old team); he must sign during the UFA signing period (which ended on July 22 last year); if he signs after June 1, he must have been tendered a June 1 qualifying offer by his old team; he must sign for at least a certain amount of money per season; and he cannot have been permanently released by his new team before a certain point in the season (which seems to be after Week 10) or, possibly, before getting a certain amount of playing time, unless he was claimed off waivers by another team.

Last year, the lowest-paid player who qualified for the NFL’s comp equation was Bobby Hamilton, who signed for $685,000 per season and started 15 games."

http://www.kffl.com/forums/showthread.php?t=163280

Pos Player Team ESPN Grade*

LB LaVar Arrington Redskins 80
CB Ty Law NY Jets 79
WR Keyshawn Johnson Cowboys 73
DE Gary Walker Texans 72
QB Brian Griese Bucs 72
QB Kerry Collins Raiders 71
DT Sam Adams Bills 70
CB Reggie Howard Dolphins 70
LB Na'il Diggs Packers 70
DT Brentson Buckner Panthers 70
OT Brad Hopkins Titans 70
CB Ahmed Plummer 49ers 70
S Tebucky Jones Dolphins 69
S Marcus Coleman Texans 69
LB Junior Seau Dolphins 69
CB Eric Warfield Chiefs 69
DE Duane Clemons Bengals 69
CB Andre Dyson Seahawks 69
QB Aaron Brooks Saints 69
QB Mike McMahon Eagles 68
OG Ron Stone Raiders 68
LB Peter Boulware Ravens 68
OT Orlando Brown Ravens 68
FB Jerald Sowell NY Jets 68
LB Jamie Sharper Seahawks 68
CB Dexter McCleon Chiefs 68
OT Damion McIntosh Dolphins 68
DE Brady Smith Falcons 68
QB Tommy Maddox Steelers 67
TE Mark Campbell Bills 67
DT Lance Legree NY Jets 67
CB Duane Starks Patriots 67
LB Chris Claiborne Rams 67
RB Stephen Davis Panthers 66
QB Jay Fiedler NY Jets 66
LB Chad Brown Patriots 66
LB Brandon Short Panthers 66
DT Brandon Noble Redskins 66
S Mike Logan Steelers 65
S Jerry Wilson Chargers 65
LB Jeff Gooch Bucs 65
OT Jacob Rogers Dallas 64
CB Willie Williams Steelers 64
QB Tony Banks Texans 64
DT Josh Williams Colts 64
DE Gary Stills Chiefs 64
CB Denard Walker Raiders 64
LB Barrett Green NY Giants 64
OG Kendyl Jacox Saints 63
WR Johnnie Morton 49ers 63
C Cory Raymer Redskins 63
S Brent Alexander NY Giants 63
DT Willie Blade Cowboys 62
CB Michael Lehan Browns 62
DT Jason Fisk Browns 62
OG David Loverne Lions 62
RB Rod Smart Panthers 61
DT Chris Cooper 49ers 61
RB Tony Hollings Texans 60
S Russell Stuvaints Steelers 60
LB Barry Gardner NY Jets 60
S Oliver Celestin NY Jets 59
OG Joaquin Gonzalez Colts 57

QB Joey Harrington* Lions
CB Lenny Walls Broncos
C Vince Carter Raiders?

*expected to be cut soon

[VaderFin]

Everyone hopes they get compensation picks....no good team isn't going to sign someone because they want to get a compensation pick.

[mattb47]

Yea, I think you go after FAs that will improve your team over sitting and waiting so you get a 3rd round pick.....if that's what they're doing then I think they need some new management.

[maddog60]

Mind you these 3rd rounders are after the 32nd 3rd round pick. They're really early 4th rounders. Not something to be concerned about over signing quality FAs.

[Mercer Boy]

Mind you these 3rd rounders are after the 32nd 3rd round pick. They're really early 4th rounders. Not something to be concerned about over signing quality FAs.

Seems to me the Niners are being cheap. That's not cool since like I said the other day...I don't want the 49ers to become the Pirates and Penguins. That's what they do; sign crappy talent while people still come to the games, and the owners reap all the benefits without fielding a "legitimate" team.

[VaderFin]

Not to mention every team thinks they are going to get this pick or that and it doesn't always come true.

[mysticphysh]

Let's hope they don't blow their 3rd round comp pick like denver did last year

[mysticphysh]

Mind you these 3rd rounders are after the 32nd 3rd round pick. They're really early 4th rounders. Not something to be concerned about over signing quality FAs.

Seems to me the Niners are being cheap. That's not cool since like I said the other day...I don't want the 49ers to become the Pirates and Penguins. That's what they do; sign crappy talent while people still come to the games, and the owners reap all the benefits without fielding a "legitimate" team.

I don't follow hockey, so I don't know about the Penguins, but the Pirates groom good talent and draft pretty well...they just can't afford to keep players. Every year, they whole sale their good players becuase they can't afford it, not because they're cheap.

[TruNinerFan]

The Niners need new ownership. John York has to go.

[BrutallyHuge]

That guy who posted that has a lot of time on his hands.