Here are the steps:
1: Use Avt to project stats. Just in case you don't know here is a definition of Avt
Fantasy Football is a game of statistics. Unlike real football, fantasy owners are not rewarded if their players give a lot of autographs, have great chemistry on and off the field, do community work, or start a charity. Conversely, fantasy owners are not penalized if their player doesn’t have any of these attributes. In fantasy land, the only thing that counts is statistics. Therefore, your first priority in preparing for the draft is to figure out what kind of statistics will result from this year’s crop of players. These statistics are called projections.
Obviously, owners with more accurate projections than their opposition can reap huge rewards. Unfortunately, most people will tell you that creating projections is a difficult and time-consuming task. Consequently, they either take a half-hearted approach or let others do it for them. Fortunately, I have a method that takes less than a day to do, and the results are better than the hard-working experts who spend weeks and months doing them.
I use a little-known concept called the Average Value Theory (AVT). AVT is a powerful, proven, and objective method for doing projections. Best of all, it is quick and easy. Here’s how I do it.
Step 1) Find a source for NFL statistics. You’ll need to look up stats such as yardage, TDs, receptions, and so on. Basically, you need access to any stat that would be used in your fantasy league’s scoring system.
Step 2) Convert each player’s statistics into fantasy points. The conversions will be based on your fantasy league’s scoring system. You’ll need to calculate the fantasy points scored by every player at each position for the past three years . Unfortunately, this entails a lot of calculations; too many to do by hand or by calculator. Fortunately, there are many online programs available that do all the work for you.
Step 3) Rank the players in each year according to the fantasy points scored. You will do each position separately. If you are using an online program, this part is automatically done for you.
Step 4) Remove the names of the players. That’s right. The names of the players are unimportant in AVT. Instead the focus is on the numerical rankings and the fantasy points scored by those rankings. The ranking of actual NFL players and names are not part of the AVT method and will be touched upon in the next chapter.
Step 5) Determine how many AVs to calculate for each position. “AV” is the average value, or average fantasy points scored, calculated for a particular position and rank. In other words, the AV is the actual projection. You’ll need AVs for each player you have on your cheatsheet . For example, if you are going to have 30 QBs listed on your cheatsheet then you need 30 AVs. I recommend the following system in determining the number of AVs needed: Multiply the number of maximum starters you can have in a position by the number of teams in the league by two. Therefore, if you have one starting quarterback in a 12-team league, then you will need 1x12x2=24 QB projections to fill your cheatsheet. Here’s another example: If you are in a 10-team league that requires two RBs, but a third back can be started as a “flex” player, you would need 3x10x2=60 running backs.
Step 6) Calculate the AVs for each rank and position, doing no more than the required number of AVs determined from Step 5. To calculate an AV, add up the fantasy points scored by a particular rank and position over the last three years and divide by three. For example, the No. 1 QB may have scored a combined 333 fantasy points over the past three years. In this case, the 3-year AVT projection for the No. 1 QB is 111 fantasy points. This means that the AVT projects that the QB will score 111 fantasy points this coming year. When you are finished with this step you should have a ranking and projection list for each position. If I ask you what the projection for this year’s 12th ranked WR is, you should be able to tell me from your list.
Congratulations. That’s it! These AVs are your player projections for the upcoming year.
2: Determine my X-values and use VBD to sort my players Highest score to lowest. A good definition of Vbd ( just for those who are wondering is:
I know we're still mid season and this article is for the draft, but I figured it's never too early to start preparing for next year especially those who are all but eliminated from the fantasy playoffs this year. The following is cut straight out of my book Drafting To Win. Enjoy! -z-
CHAPTER 5 – VALUE-BASED DRAFTING 101
It’s time to take a more strategic approach, so let’s put on our thinking caps. Shortly, you will understand why implementing the right draft strategy rather than relying on pre-draft player rankings will make all the difference come playoff time.
But first, a true story…
It was early in the summer of 2003 when Emil Kadlec asked me to compete in his Fantasy Football Pro Forecast magazine’s experts’ poll. After finishing 2nd out of 552 teams in the ’02 WCOFF, it was apparent that my reputation among my fantasy peers had been bumped up a few notches, so I enthusiastically accepted his invitation.
The Fantasy Football Pro Forecast poll was simple in premise: its purpose was to find out which of the hand-picked “experts” could generate the player ratings that produced the most fortuitous final results. I was about to stand toe-to-toe with the likes of Chris Schussman (1st place winner in ’02 WCOFF) and Bob Harris (TFL Report), as well as industry standouts MVP Sportsbook, Red Eye Sports, KFFL, FF Champs, CBSSportsline, Sandlot Shrink, Fantasy Guru, Grandslam, Draft Sharks and Fantasy Insights.
So I made my picks, and admittedly I didn’t give much more thought to this poll until bumping into Emil shortly after the end of the season. What he told me that December afternoon played a big part in why I decided to write this book.
“How did I do?”
“Ummm,” Emil started. “Well, not good.”
Not good? Impossible! Down but not out, I let my curiosity cloak my bruised ego.
“What happened?” I mustered.
The numbers told a somber tale: out of the 13 experts, my poll ranked near the bottom in QBs (12th place), WRs (12th), TEs (10th) and DEF (13th), while salvaging a 5th-place showing at QB. Decimated by injuries, I realized that accurately ranking players so early in the summer was a crap shoot.
“However,” Emil continued. “You finished second in the Overall Top 25 Rankings.”
My brain struggled to reason what I had just heard: was it possible that, at least pertaining to my poll, my overall “whole” ranking system proved greater than the sum of its individually-ranked parts?
Emil went on to explain that if I were have to competed against the same panel of experts in an actual fantasy draft, my rankings would have likely garnered a second-place finish.
“OK, let me get this straight,” I probed, not fully embracing the previous explanation. “I entered the draft with one of the worst sets of player rankings, yet I would likely be in contention for a title in an actual league?”
Do you believe in miracles? Well I don’t. Just truth, and the truth is that succeeding in fantasy football is not contingent on high player rankings. Granted, a well-planned (and sometimes luck-driven) ranking system can put you heads and shoulders above your competition, but you can catapult poor, pre-draft player rankings into overall success by following the principles of Value-Based Drafting (VBD).
VBD is a proven mathematical system that determines the most valuable player among all positions. To begin to understand how VBD works you must first fully grasp your goal during the draft. With top-ranked players available in every position, each time you’re up to make a selection, who do you take? Tick tock. Do you snag the best QB? Tick tock. What about the top ranked RB or WR? Tick tock. Then again, what if you desperately need a TE? Tick tock.
Your play is to look underneath the surface to determine the true top-ranked player. Those managers who are unprepared for this investigation will not be able to accurately determine the correct choice especially in the short time given to make a pick.
A VBD application (or “app” from this point forward) mathematically allocates values to the players so you can determine the best player overall. In other words, it calculates the top ranked option among all positions – the overall best pick, the crème de la crème.
Here’s a simplified example showing you how value-based drafting works:
Suppose you are in a league competing against just one other fantasy owner, the starting lineup consisting of only 1 QB and 1 RB and the draft lasting only two rounds. Let’s also suppose your cheat sheet is simply as follows:
Rank QB QB Projection RB RB Projection
1 QB1 200 points RB1 100 points
2 QB2 180 points RB2 60 points
Figure 22 – Simplified Cheat Sheet
The draft is serpentine-style: You pick first in the first round and last in the second round.
Who do you take with the first pick?
On the surface, QB1 looks like the logical pick because he is projected to score the most points. I’ve asked this question to a few friends who’ve been playing fantasy football longer than me and all of them wanted to take QB1. Are they correct?
Let’s assume you select QB1, and your opponent follows suit by snagging RB1 and QB2 with the next two picks (When using VBD, ALWAYS ASSUME that your opponent values and ranks the players the same as you do). Inevitably, you take RB2 with the last pick. Let’s see who fared better.
Your team, QB1 & RB2, is projected to score 200 + 60 = 260 points.
Your opponent’s team, RB1 & QB2, is projected to score 100 + 180 = 280 points.
How can this be? You had the first pick and you felt justified picking the highest-scoring player. You considered QB1 to be the “best” player, yet your opponent ends up having the better team. ... Hmmm. What went wrong?
It turns out that the best player is RB1 not QB1. That’s because, according to VBD, a player’s value is not determined by the number of points he’s projected to score; rather, his value is determined by the number of points he’s projected to outscore. Specifically, you are interested in how many points he will outscore players in his position. QB1’s value is 20 points because he’s projected to outscore QB2 by 20 points. Thus, when you draft QB1, then you can expect a 20-point advantage over your opponent.
Now let’s take a look at RB1. His value is 40 points because he’s projected to outscore RB2 by that amount. So by drafting RB1 you get a 40-point advantage over your opponent. This is the premise of value-based drafting. Draft players in a fashion to outscore your opponent.
Of course, real fantasy football (can anyone say oxymoron?) isn’t as simple as the example just given. There are more owners to compete against, more players to pick from, and more rounds to draft in. Furthermore, there are many ways one can apply the VBD principles. Some applications are good, and others aren’t. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on how you want to look at it), few people completely understand the inner-workings of the VBD in order to maximize efforts on draft day. Today, VBD is quickly growing into one of the most recognized and widely used drafting applications among fantasy football experts.
But, before we delve into any kind of advanced methodology, you first need to understand the basics of VBD, its terminology, and its simplest application – the Worst Starter Method. The remainder of this chapter will focus on such introductory material. Chapter Six will detail two intermediate VBD apps that are popular among many people – the Average Starter Method and the “100 Pick” Method. Chapters Seven and Eight will reveal the advanced applications of VBD that I personally customized and regularly use (even experts don’t know about these). If you master these advanced concepts, consider yourself a force to be reckoned with on draft day.
But first, let’s go over the basics starting with VBD terminology.
There are several terms used in VBD that you need to understand. One is called the “baseline.” Each position has its own baseline. The baseline is the reference point at which players in a position are compared in order to determine their values. The difference between a player’s projection and his position’s baseline becomes his value. In other words, to determine a player’s value subtract the baseline from his projection. Think back to the example given earlier. QB1’s value was determined to be 200-180 = 20 fantasy points. The baseline used was 180 fantasy points because that’s what was subtracted from the player’s projection in order to determine his value. Can you determine what baseline was used in determining RB1’s value in the prior example? (The answer is in next paragraph.)
Since RB1’s value was determined by subtracting 60 fantasy points from 100 fantasy points, the RB baseline is 60 fantasy points.
You’ll notice that the QB baseline of 180 fantasy points is equivalent to QB2’s projection, and the RB baseline of 60 fantasy points is equivalent to the projected points of RB2. That’s because I chose to use “baseline players.” Baseline players are specific players chosen to determine a position’s baseline. Specifically, the baseline players’ projections are used to determine baselines. Please note: You’ll see that some VBD apps make use of baseline players, while others determine the baseline number using an independent formula.
Players’ values as determined from Value-Based Drafting are referred to as “X numbers” or “X values.” Getting back to the prior example, QB1’s X value = 200-180 = 20 fantasy points. RB1’s X value = 100-60 = 40 fantasy points. X values represent how many fantasy points your fantasy team will outscore your fantasy competition. Your mission on draft day is to accrue as much X-Value as possible when selecting players.
X values are used to rank all players from all positions in one collective ranking list, known as the “overall rankings.” As a fantasy football manager, your job is mostly to draft the best available player from the overall rankings list each time you pick, at least for the early rounds.
VBD can be applied in a variety of ways, with each variation implementing a different method for determining baselines. The most basic version is called the worst starter method. It is an excellent method, especially for beginners, because of its simplicity to grasp, coupled with favorable results. This method determines the baseline player to be the guy who is the “worst starter.” Worst starter is defined as the player who’s projected to score the fewest fantasy points among all the starting players in the league.
The systematic way of finding the worst starter in each position is to multiply the starting lineup by the number of teams in the league. For instance, suppose you are in a twelve-team league with a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D/ST. After multiplying the starting lineup by twelve teams you’ll find that the league will collectively start 12 QBs, 24 RBs, 36 WRs, 12 TEs, 12 Ks, and 12 D/STs. Therefore, the worst starters – or the baseline players – are the 12th ranked QB, 24th RB, 36th WR, 12th TE, 12th K, and 12th D/ST on the cheat sheet.
Once you know who the baseline players are you can begin to calculate X values. Let’s say your cheat sheet had RB rankings and projections as listed in the first two columns on the left side of Figure 23. (Note: these projections were calculated using a three-year AVT in the 2003 WCOFF.)
Player (Pts) – (Baseline) = X #
RB1 442 – 190 = 252
RB2 375 – 190 = 185
RB3 347 – 190 = 157
RB4 326 – 190 = 136
RB5 316 – 190 = 126
RB6 306 – 190 = 116
RB7 301 – 190 = 111
RB8 293 – 190 = 103
RB9 276 – 190 = 86
RB10 268 – 190 = 78
RB11 262 – 190 = 72
RB12 254 – 190 = 64
RB13 250 – 190 = 60
RB14 246 – 190 = 56
RB15 238 – 190 = 48
RB16 231 – 190 = 41
RB17 227 – 190 = 37
RB18 222 – 190 = 32
RB19 217 – 190 = 27
RB20 213 – 190 = 23
RB21 205 – 190 = 15
RB22 202 – 190 = 12
RB23 199 – 190 = 9
RB24 190 – 190 = 0
RB25 178 – 190 = -12
RB26 173 – 190 = -17
RB27 169 – 190 = -21
RB28 159 – 190 = -32
RB29 151 – 190 = -39
RB30 149 – 190 = -41
RB31 145 – 190 = -45
RB32 139 – 190 = -51
RB33 137 – 190 = -53
RB34 134 – 190 = -56
RB35 125 – 190 = -65
RB36 121 – 190 = -69
RB37 120 – 190 = -71
RB38 115 – 190 = -75
RB39 111 – 190 = -79
RB40 109 – 190 = -81
Figure 23 – Determining RB X Values
With the 24th ranked RB being the baseline player, you know that his projection of 190 fantasy points becomes the baseline (shown in bold in Figure 23). This is now the reference point used to determine X values for all RBs. That is, 190 fantasy points can be subtracted from each RB’s projection in order to calculate his X value. All calculated X values are listed in the far right column of Figure 23. You’ll notice that players ranked above the baseline have positive X values while players below the baseline have negative X values. Baseline players, if any, will always have a value of zero.
If you follow the same process for every position, you should end up with a complete set of player rankings, projections, and X values such as that found in Figure 24. You’ll notice the baseline players are the same ones as determine in the prior example. They are the 12th ranked QB, 24th RB, 36th WR, 12th TE, 12th K, and 12th D/ST (shown in bold).
QB Pts X # RB Pts X# WR Pts X # TE Pts X # K Pts X # D/ST Pts X #
QB1 400 124 RB1 442 252 WR1 357 191 TE1 222 119 K1 148 30 D/ST1 162 47
QB2 381 105 RB2 375 185 WR2 331 165 TE2 176 73 K2 144 26 D/ST2 156 41
QB3 358 82 RB3 347 157 WR3 320 154 TE3 173 70 K3 140 22 D/ST3 151 36
QB4 346 70 RB4 326 136 WR4 304 138 TE4 155 52 K4 138 20 D/ST4 141 26
QB5 341 65 RB5 316 126 WR5 292 126 TE5 150 47 K5 132 14 D/ST5 137 22
QB6 335 59 RB6 306 116 WR6 276 110 TE6 142 39 K6 130 12 D/ST6 135 20
QB7 316 40 RB7 301 111 WR7 271 105 TE7 126 23 K7 127 9 D/ST7 134 19
QB8 308 32 RB8 293 103 WR8 270 104 TE8 117 14 K8 126 8 D/ST8 124 9
QB9 300 24 RB9 276 86 WR9 266 100 TE9 114 11 K9 124 6 D/ST9 123 8
QB10 294 18 RB10 268 78 WR10 265 99 TE10 110 7 K10 121 3 D/ST10 121 6
QB11 285 9 RB11 262 72 WR11 258 92 TE11 107 4 K11 120 2 D/ST11 117 2
QB12 276 0 RB12 254 64 WR12 254 88 TE12 103 0 K12 118 0 D/ST12 115 0
QB13 267 -9 RB13 250 60 WR13 251 85 TE13 96 -7 K13 117 -1 D/ST13 111 -4
QB14 264 -12 RB14 246 56 WR14 245 79 TE14 93 -10 K14 114 -4 D/ST14 109 -6
QB15 257 -19 RB15 238 48 WR15 241 75 TE15 92 -11 K15 113 -5 D/ST15 109 -6
QB16 247 -29 RB16 231 41 WR16 238 72 TE16 86 -17 K16 111 -7 D/ST16 108 -7
QB17 245 -31 RB17 227 37 WR17 231 65 TE17 84 -19 K17 110 -8 D/ST17 106 -9
QB18 242 -34 RB18 222 32 WR18 222 56 TE18 83 -20 K18 108 -10 D/ST18 105 -10
QB19 233 -43 RB19 217 27 WR19 219 53 TE19 80 -23 K19 107 -11 D/ST19 104 -11
QB20 226 -50 RB20 213 23 WR20 217 51 TE20 80 -23 K20 103 -15 D/ST20 103 -12
QB21 222 -54 RB21 205 15 WR21 213 47 TE21 77 -26 K21 99 -19 D/ST21 101 -14
QB22 215 -61 RB22 202 12 WR22 211 45 TE22 70 -33 K22 96 -22 D/ST22 99 -16
QB23 209 -67 RB23 199 9 WR23 206 40 TE23 67 -36 K23 95 -23 D/ST23 97 -18
QB24 205 -71 RB24 190 0 WR24 198 32 TE24 63 -40 K24 92 -26 D/ST24 96 -19
RB25 178 -12 WR25 194 28
RB26 173 -17 WR26 191 25
RB27 169 -21 WR27 189 23
RB28 159 -32 WR28 185 19
RB29 151 -39 WR29 182 16
RB30 149 -41 WR30 180 14
RB31 145 -45 WR31 177 11
RB32 139 -51 WR32 174 8
RB33 137 -53 WR33 171 5
RB34 134 -56 WR34 169 3
RB35 125 -65 WR35 168 2
RB36 121 -69 WR36 166 0
RB37 120 -71 WR37 162 -4
RB38 115 -75 WR38 159 -7
RB39 111 -79 WR39 158 -8
RB40 109 -81 WR40 157 -9
Figure 24 – Cheat Sheet With X Values
At this point, you should begin to understand the true advantage of applying VBD principles. All the positions and players can now be grouped together in one list known as the overall rankings. This is the most important list on the cheat sheet. Figure 25 ranks the top 25 players from Figure 24 in an overall rankings list.
Overall Player X #
1 RB1 251
2 WR1 191
3 RB2 185
4 WR2 165
5 RB3 157
6 WR3 154
7 WR4 138
8 RB4 136
9 RB5 126
10 WR5 126
11 QB1 124
12 TE1 119
13 RB6 116
14 RB7 111
15 WR6 110
16 WR7 105
17 QB2 105
18 WR8 104
19 RB8 103
20 WR9 100
21 WR10 99
22 WR11 92
23 WR12 88
24 RB9 86
25 WR13 85
Figure 25 – Overall Rankings (Worst Starter Method)
Figure 25 tells you which players are the most valuable regardless of position. So, when it’s your turn to draft a player, you’ll know which player and position to draft from rather than debating and mulling over the top players available in each position. For instance, if you had the first overall pick in the draft you should jump all over RB1 because he offers the most X value.
An important part of becoming an educated fantasy manager is taking the time to analyze and understand the processes and results of draft strategies and systems. This particular juncture makes a great opportunity to reflect on the strategies and results you’ve just been introduced to. Of course, you’re probably hoping I would do the “analyzing and thinking” for you so here are seven of my own observations and comments regarding Figures 24-25, the Worst Starter Method, and VBD in general:
1) The purpose of any VBD system is to draft players who are going to outscore your opponents so you can win fantasy games. According to the Worst Starter Method, the manager who gets stuck drafting the worst starter, such as QB12 in Figure 24, will gain nothing because all the other managers are expected to draft better players. This is what makes the Worst Starter Method an acceptable approach for drafting players. It bases the values of players relative to the worst starter. In other words, the Worst Starter Method awards positive X values to those managers who are savvy enough to draft better starters than the worst ones. For instance, anyone who drafts a QB ranked higher than QB12 will be rewarded with positive X values, and deservingly so.
2) While there are only 25 players listed in Figure 25 you should actually include more players in the overall rankings. I recommend listing about 50-70 players in the overall list and drafting from that list until they are all depleted. Typically, you’ll want enough players to last at least five rounds of the draft.
3) NEVER draft players with negative X values while implementing a VBD system. This mistake can be avoided simply by not including players with negative X values in the overall rankings. You should treat players with negative X values as you would poison ivy: stay away from them at all costs, for two primary reasons.
First, dealing with negative numbers gets a bit confusing. When push comes to shove, and you’re on the clock, determining the better choice between QB24 with an X value of –71 and TE24 with an X value of –40 can be more of a challenge than you would think.
But secondly, and more importantly, a player’s value should be determined by how many points he’s projected to outscore other players in his position. When a player dips below the baseline he is no longer outscoring, but rather he is being outscored. This will result in misleading data.
Let me give you an example supporting this second reason. Looking at Figure 24, suppose the only players remaining in the draft were RB25 (X value of -12), RB26 (X value of -17), WR37 (X value of -4), & WR38 (X value of -7). According to these negative X values you would draft WR37 because –4 is the closest number to being a positive X value. However, when you analyze the situation more carefully, you’ll see that RB25 outscores RB26 by five fantasy points while WR37 outscores WR38 by only three points. This indicates the most valuable player should be RB25 because he’s the one who’s outscoring other players in his position the most – which is the whole premise of value-based drafting. Moral of the story: Stay away from using negative X values.
By the way, just because you aren’t allowed to draft players with negative X values via VBD doesn’t mean you won’t ever have the chance to draft those players. There will be additional draft strategies that you’ll utilize on draft day after you’ve finished with VBD. So don’t worry if you see a sleeper or a handcuff sitting there with a negative value, you’ll still get a chance to draft him. These secondary and tertiary strategies will be covered in Chapter Ten.
4) You’ll find overall rankings dominated with RBs and WRs, especially in the top 25. These positions are laden with value for two primary reasons: baseline players for these positions are relatively far down the list (24th ranked RB, 36th ranked WR), resulting in a larger number of players sitting above the baseline with positive X values, and RBs and WRs are high-scoring positions. While high-scoring players don’t offer value per se (as shown in Figure 22) it does allow the opportunity for other players to score a lot less. It’s this scoring difference that creates the value to look for when drafting players.
5) Notice there aren’t any Ks and D/STs in Figure 25. These positions should rarely find their way in the overall rankings, especially the top 50. The reason for their low values is that Ks and D/STs don’t outscore each other by that much. For instance, Figure 24 shows the best kicker scoring just 30 more points than the 12th best kicker. Compare this to the RB position where the best player almost outscores the 12th best by almost 200 fantasy points.
The lesson learned here is that you should wait until the late rounds before drafting a K or D/ST. In fact, I always wait until the latter half of the draft before considering such positions. In any case, if you find one of these positions ranked high on the overall list then double-check your calculations, something isn’t right.
6) Notice only two QBs and one TE cracked the top 25 in Figure 25. While QBs and TEs are more valuable than Ks and D/STs, they still don’t offer nearly as much value as RBs or WRs. This is because the QB and TE baseline players are ranked relatively high on the list (12th ranked player compared to, say, the 24th or 36th ranked player). As a result, fewer players sit above the baseline with positive X values, taking away most of the potential for a big mark-up in X value.
This should tell you to be careful about overrating QBs and TEs. The most common mistake among fantasy managers is drafting these positions too early, specifically in the first four to five rounds. Expect at least half of your league to take a QB and/or TE in these early rounds. Make sure you’re not one of them. Actually, QB1, QB2 and TE1 are probably ranked too high in Figure 25. Overrating the best players in these positions is one of various faults found in the Worst Starter Method. Don’t worry. We’ll delve into improved VBD apps in the chapters that follow.
7) The overall list is the most important list on the cheat sheet. Therefore, it’s important to be aware of what aspects of your fantasy league affect this list. Specifically, there are three variables that significantly affect the outcome of the overall rankings: the number of teams, scoring rules, and starting roster. As these variables change, so will the overall rankings. If you play in multiple fantasy leagues with different variables, then you better make sure you create separate overall rankings for each of those leagues. Many fantasy footballers make the mistake of thinking one cheat sheet is good for every league. This couldn’t be further from the truth.
To give you a better idea, let’s explore the effect the aforementioned variables have on overall rankings by taking a look at five different leagues. The leagues are as follows with League #1 being used as the control group:
No. Teams: 12
Starting Roster: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D/ST
Scoring Rules: WCOFF
No. Teams: 8
Starting Roster: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D/ST
Scoring Rules: WCOFF
Variable: No. teams (lowered to eight).
No. Teams: 12
Starting Roster: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D/ST
Scoring Rules: WCOFF
Variable: Starting roster (one less receiver).
No. Teams: 12
Starting Roster: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D/ST
Scoring Rules: WCOFF without point per reception
Variable: Scoring (no point per reception).
No. Teams: 8
Starting Roster: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D/ST
Scoring Rules: WCOFF without point per reception
Variables: No. teams, starting roster, and scoring (all three variables changed as they were in each of previous three leagues).
Each league’s top 25 overall rankings were determined by applying the worst starter method. The first three leagues’ applied this method to the rankings and projections listed in Figure 24 since those projections were already determined via three-year AVT based on WCOFF scoring. The fourth and fifth leagues required a different set of AVT projections based on the removal of awarding one point per reception in the scoring. While those adjusted projections aren’t listed in the book, the top 25 results for all leagues are listed in Figure 26.
Overall Rank League
1 RB1 RB1 RB1 RB1 RB1
2 WR1 WR1 RB2 RB2 RB2
3 RB2 RB2 WR1 RB3 RB3
4 WR2 WR2 RB3 WR1 QB1
5 RB3 WR3 RB4 QB1 WR1
6 WR3 RB3 WR2 WR2 QB2
7 WR4 WR4 RB5 RB4 WR2
8 RB4 TE1 QB1 WR3 TE1
9 RB5 RB4 WR3 QB2 RB4
10 WR5 WR5 TE1 RB5 RB5
11 QB1 QB1 RB6 WR4 WR3
12 TE1 RB5 RB7 RB6 RB6
13 RB6 WR6 WR4 RB7 RB7
14 RB7 RB6 QB2 RB8 RB8
15 WR6 WR7 RB8 WR5 WR4
16 WR7 QB2 WR5 QB3 QB3
17 QB2 WR8 RB9 WR6 TE2
18 WR8 RB7 QB3 RB9 QB4
19 RB8 WR9 RB10 TE1 QB4
20 WR9 WR10 WR6 WR7 D/ST1
21 WR10 RB8 TE2 WR8 RB9
22 WR11 WR11 WR7 RB10 WR5
23 WR12 TE2 RB11 QB4 RB10
24 RB9 TE3 WR8 RB11 QB5
25 WR13 WR12 QB4 WR9 D/ST2
Figure 26 – Overall List Comparisons
Again, it’s very important to study and understand the results of VBD systems. Figure 26 is no exception, so here are four additional observations on such results. It’s this kind of analysis that helped me over-achieve in VBD drafting, and I’m sure it will significantly improve your understanding of VBD as well.
Notice the WRs in League #3 slide down the rankings (always compare things to League #1 which is the control group). In fact, five WRs fall out of the top 25 completely. This is a result of the starting lineup being reduced from three to two WRs. This lineup change reduces the need to draft WRs essentially making it proper to lower their value and position in the overall rankings.
Once again, you’ll notice WRs sliding down the rankings in League #4. This time it’s the result of a scoring change. The removal of the scoring rule that awards one fantasy point per reception significantly reduces the value of WRs. This should seem obvious, as receptions are a main component of WR scoring. TEs, who are receivers in their own right, also lose value in this instance. This is apparent with TE1 sliding down from 12th to 19th place.
RBs and QBs are the beneficiaries of this variable change. These positions subsequently fill in the holes left by WRs and TEs in the top 25.
Taking a look at League #5, this league combines the efforts of reducing the starting lineup of WRs and removing the scoring rule of one fantasy point per reception. This “double dose” results in a drastic reduction in the value of WRs. The overall rankings of WRs plummeted from 14 down to just four in the top 25. Now do you see the importance of creating separate cheat sheets for different leagues?
My last observation focuses on League #2 where the number of fantasy teams is reduced from 12 down to 8. While all the positions shift in value, only the TE position is significantly affected, moving up in value. TE1 jumped up to the eighth ranked spot while two additional TEs sneaked into the top 25. Why is this?
Let’s break it down. When the number of teams is reduced from twelve to eight, the baseline players for all positions shift up. The baseline players for the QB and TE positions shift from the 12th ranked spot up to the eighth ranked spot. The RB baseline player goes from the 24th ranked spot up to the 16th ranked spot. The WR baseline player goes from the 36th ranked spot up to the 24th ranked spot.
Breaking it down more, we have to analyze the resulting changes in the baselines. Using the data in Figure 24, the RB baseline went from 190 fantasy points up to 231: an increase in 41 fantasy points. Thus, the X values of RBs are reduced by 41 fantasy points.
The WR baseline jumped from 166 fantasy points up to 198, an increase in 32 fantasy points. This results in the X values of WRs being reduced by 32 fantasy points. Following the same analysis on QBs, you’ll see that their X values are reduced by 32 fantasy points as well.
Now let’s take a look at TEs. The baseline adjusted from 103 fantasy points to 117. This relatively small bump reduced all TE values by just 14 fantasy points. This is a much smaller reduction than what the other positions faced, and as a consequence, TEs gained value and moved up in overall rankings.
VBD principles, specifically those regarding the Worst Starter Method, will significantly improve your overall draft results against opponents who do not utilize VBD. That’s because you strategically draft in a way to outscore your opponents. You can expect above average results with just mediocre player rankings. Indeed, VBD principles are that powerful. However, winning a league title usually requires some modifications to the VBD system. Be careful, though, as some modifications may or may not improve your results above and beyond that of the Worst Starter Method. The next chapter will introduce you to two existing, modified VBD apps. One is better than the Worst Starter Method. The other is worse. Turn the pages and you’ll find out why.
3: I am going average the ADP's of about Five renowned fantasy sites.
4: I am going to look at my Vbd draft list and sort my rankings by each 12 players IE: each round of a draft.
5: I am going to sort my adp's iby 12 players each.
6:I am going to go through each of the rounds of My ADP list, and cross off the names of the players that were drafted in a round in Adp list by that corresponding round in my draft list.
7: Each player that was chosen in a certain round in my draft list but not In the ADP draft list gets a star.
8: The players with the most stars are my Target Players. I am going to use stdev to determine where These players safely should be drafted.
I think this strategy will be effective becuase first it minnimizes risk IE: AVT, second it Maximizes Value Ie: Using ADP, and Vbd.
Sorry for the longest post of history, and please give me feedback.