mattb47 wrote:I use VBD and AVT as parts of my draft strategy. But in all honesty they play a very small role in my draft day choices. I have a good idea in my head where I want to take certain people and I make a draft sheet based upon that each year, but actually for the most part I just wing it. I rarely go by my cheat sheet exactly except for maybe the first couple of rounds. I might glance at the VBD or AVT but for the most part, it's all from my own point of view.
What he said.
thats exactly what i do. I go by my gut feeling more than anything. If you put in enough time and research i think that is one of the better draft "strategies"
This past year, I made a cheat sheet of the top 10 players in each position based on stats the past few years....and didn't really use it. It gave me a good sense of who to pick, but I didn't go down the list picking the next available player. I just went with my gut on who is the next available player based on their past performances and current situations.
I like the thought you're putting into this, but I think you're going to too much work.
I think it's easy to over-analyze numbers, and I think you're doing that with this method.
Most of the usual outlets (The Rotos of the world, ESPN, CBS, etc) use systems like this for their predictions. You can make a decent cheat sheet by taking their sheets and averaging them to get a result. This is what I've been doing for years, and I've had some pretty good sheets doing it this way. Last season I put together the highest scoring team in the history of my league (17 years), so I can vouch for that method.
You could always just use the Cafe's sheets and save yourself a lot of time, too.
I'm a fan of numbers, though, so make sure you post your results here before your draft, and let us know what your team looks like after you're all done.
I really don't think CBS, yahoo, rotoworld use AVT and VBD to do their sheets as those are league dependent rankings, they just go with averages of some employees I'm sure. I like your motivation, I tried to do this a while ago, but got bogged down with all the stats I had to input into excel.
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BrutallyHuge wrote:I draft big name aging/retired veterans.
This year I'm targeting Priest Holmes, Marshall Faulk, Kurt Warner, Keenan McCardell, Terrell Davis, Sterling & Shannon Sharpe, and Brett Favre (only if he retires).
I'm with him especially in Dynasty leagues.
You could think of government workers like teenagers. You pay them an allowance, but do you get any work out them? They eat the food, put their feet on the furniture and complain loudly whenever they are unhappy.
Last year I did about 50 or more mock drafts on that sportsline or sporting news website that had mocks firing off every 20 minutes. I found players that I liked and found players that drifted past their value and used that knowledge to draft my teams... I won 1 league and got second in another so I figure it worked out ok. I feel like some of a draft HAS to be organic read and react rather than more strict VBD.