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Postby Crimedogg32 » Wed Mar 29, 2006 12:47 pm

I think AVT is a little confusing. Since you arent using any names you are just projectioning what say the #1 QB will score not Peyton Manning right? So if thats the case you get the projected points for say the top 30 QBs and then do you have to rank the top 30 QBs?

So you arent actually projections players stats you are just projectioning the points of QBs then you choose where you place each one?

Im a little confused :-°
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Postby mattb47 » Wed Mar 29, 2006 12:49 pm

Crimedogg32 wrote:I think AVT is a little confusing. Since you arent using any names you are just projectioning what say the #1 QB will score not Peyton Manning right? So if thats the case you get the projected points for say the top 30 QBs and then do you have to rank the top 30 QBs?

So you arent actually projections players stats you are just projectioning the points of QBs then you choose where you place each one?

Im a little confused :-°


I think it's more saying that you shouldn't let the name of the player influence where you put them on your cheat sheet. It should be purely by numbers....but i think this system is very flawed. Doesn't take into account any outside changes like supporting cast, changing teams, changes in coaching, etc....

That's why I only use this as a small part of my cheat sheet making process.
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Postby Crimedogg32 » Wed Mar 29, 2006 1:01 pm

mattb47 wrote:
Crimedogg32 wrote:I think AVT is a little confusing. Since you arent using any names you are just projectioning what say the #1 QB will score not Peyton Manning right? So if thats the case you get the projected points for say the top 30 QBs and then do you have to rank the top 30 QBs?

So you arent actually projections players stats you are just projectioning the points of QBs then you choose where you place each one?

Im a little confused :-°


I think it's more saying that you shouldn't let the name of the player influence where you put them on your cheat sheet. It should be purely by numbers....but i think this system is very flawed. Doesn't take into account any outside changes like supporting cast, changing teams, changes in coaching, etc....

That's why I only use this as a small part of my cheat sheet making process.


so is it saying to this or not?

in 2003 the top 3 RBs were Priest (371 Points) LT (343 Points) and Green (335 Points)

in 2004 the top 3 RBs were SA (300 Points) Tiki (296 Points) and LT (283 Points)

in 2005 the top 3 RBs were SA (361 Points) LJ (327 Points) and LT (315 Points)

so RB1 would be 371+300+361/3=344 Points
so RB2 would be 343+296+327/3= 322 Points
so RB3 would be 335+283+315/3=311 Points

So then I think the #1 RB this year will be LJ so I project him at 344 Points I think LT will be #2 RB so I project him at 322 and I think SA will be #3 RB so I project him at 311 points

Or is it this

LT in 2003 scored 343 Points 2004 scored 283 Points 2005 scored 315 Points

so LT would project at 343+283+315/3=314 Points

Is either of those right or are they both wrong? If its the latter how can people think this is effective?
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Postby mattb47 » Wed Mar 29, 2006 1:05 pm

Crimedogg32 wrote:
mattb47 wrote:
Crimedogg32 wrote:I think AVT is a little confusing. Since you arent using any names you are just projectioning what say the #1 QB will score not Peyton Manning right? So if thats the case you get the projected points for say the top 30 QBs and then do you have to rank the top 30 QBs?

So you arent actually projections players stats you are just projectioning the points of QBs then you choose where you place each one?

Im a little confused :-°


I think it's more saying that you shouldn't let the name of the player influence where you put them on your cheat sheet. It should be purely by numbers....but i think this system is very flawed. Doesn't take into account any outside changes like supporting cast, changing teams, changes in coaching, etc....

That's why I only use this as a small part of my cheat sheet making process.


so is it saying to this or not?

in 2003 the top 3 RBs were Priest (371 Points) LT (343 Points) and Green (335 Points)

in 2004 the top 3 RBs were SA (300 Points) Tiki (296 Points) and LT (283 Points)

in 2005 the top 3 RBs were SA (361 Points) LJ (327 Points) and LT (315 Points)

so RB1 would be 371+300+361/3=344 Points
so RB2 would be 343+296+327/3= 322 Points
so RB3 would be 335+283+315/3=311 Points

So then I think the #1 RB this year will be LJ so I project him at 344 Points I think LT will be #2 RB so I project him at 322 and I think SA will be #3 RB so I project him at 311 points

Or is it this

LT in 2003 scored 343 Points 2004 scored 283 Points 2005 scored 315 Points

so LT would project at 343+283+315/3=314 Points

Is either of those right or are they both wrong? If its the latter how can people think this is effective?


The way this works is it is simply taking the average of the past few seasons for these players and using that as the prediction for the next year. Which is why I say it is a very flawed technique and it takes up a very small part in my cheat sheet making.

VBD is a better technique because you can simply predict for each player and use those numbers....i just don't see taking the average of the past few years as a viable method in and of itself.
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Postby Sixxgunn » Wed Mar 29, 2006 1:13 pm

I'd say for a newbie, this should be a must read. There is a ton of information in there, and it can only help. On the other side of the coin, there is a flaw to any system. That flaw is flexibility. Preset plans to draft are nearly always a recipe for disaster and there is much to be said for gut instinct. Not to mention this years draft is going to be whacked out because of all the player and coaching movement. Edge is a prime example. Going by his stats he is a no-brainer in the first few picks, but further thought says he might not be worth the pick that his stats warrant. I do agree with making your own cheat sheet as opposed to using a general ranking from a rag, but it is imperative that you be willing to throw it out the window at a moments notice before it landslides on you. Nice job on posting this info, this is just the kind of thing that newcomers to the site need to see to keep them coming back. I know the vets get tired of seeing the same ideas recycled over and over, but without fresh blood a place like this can never be as great as it has become.
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Postby Kensat30 » Wed Mar 29, 2006 3:46 pm

I think the biggest trend I've personally noticed out of using AVT and VBD etc. is to find out how last year was different from previous years.

Instead of analyzing micro-trends like projecting stats for every player and assigning them a VBD value, I would rather try to find the macro-trend that other owners are following and exploit that to find the pockets of value in the draft. Do basically, instead of projecting the values of players and positions and comparing them to each other, I would rather look at how last year was different from the previous years to find out what players/positions will be overvalued in the draft.


For example, in 2005, the most noticeable macro trend in the previous year was the dominance of the stud QB and QBs in general compared to WRs and RBs. I've always been a proponent of waiting to draft a QB anyways, but 2004, compared to most years, was just ridiculous in terms of top-end Qb scoring. Manning going in the first round, Culpepper and McNabb in the 2nd round... It sure was easy to remember back to the record setting 2004 season, when those QBs were the difference between wins and losses in the majority of the weeks, and then to think what a bargain a guy like McNabb would be in the 2nd or 3rd round.. but when you looked at the trend of how much these QBs outscored other QBs and even other positions, and you knew they couldn't sustain that type of scoring. Instead of ranking Manning, McNabb, and Culpepper as 1,2,3 and giving them values I instead chose to ignore those QBs and focus on what would be available in rounds 5 and later.

Another trend I noticed was that WRs were going under the radar, and several of my top5 WR candidates were all falling until the end of the 2nd and early 3rd round. The weakness I was projecting at RB told me that I should go RB/WR/WR in the draft and try to fill in the RB#2 position on scrubs in the middle rounds. Too bad I didn't sack up and I went RB heavy in the majority of my drafts... ended up with Mike Anderson and Larry Johnson on the majority of my teams too. Next year I won't make the same mistake.


----
For this year, I'm still analyzing the results and trying to figure out who and whatt is going to be overvalued and undervalued, but the thing that I'm noticing the most is that we'll see a big leveling in RB numbers. This shouldn't change the beginning of the draft much at all, as LT,LJ,and SA are still obviously top 3, but it does indicate that RBs drafted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds can present a ton of value. Who those RBs are and when they should be drafted come down to cheatsheets of course, but the macro data is persuading e me to focus more on a RB heavy early draft in general instead of leaping early on stud players like the Gates/Manning/Steve Smith.



To go along with that RB heavy early conclusion, I'm also noticing a glut of WR talent available in the early rounds due to the expanded field of WR#1 producers from last year. The greatest value I'm seeing there is from guys who have had a bad year or two, but are perenially top producers. Guys like Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, and Torry Holt ARE going to be displaced by the influx of the Steve Smiths, Larry Fitzgeralds, and Santana Moss. My heart is telling me that Steve Smith is a stud and I should draft him asap, but the trend is telling me to wait a little bit and pick up Randy Moss a round later.

Macro-trends:

RBs- top end coming back to earth, and low end is pushing up overall scoring = focus RB heavy early in draft

WRs- bigger tier of WR#1s available = wait until later in the draft before selecting a proven WR
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Postby olympia0731 » Wed Mar 29, 2006 4:27 pm

Crimedogg32 wrote:
mattb47 wrote:
Crimedogg32 wrote:I think AVT is a little confusing. Since you arent using any names you are just projectioning what say the #1 QB will score not Peyton Manning right? So if thats the case you get the projected points for say the top 30 QBs and then do you have to rank the top 30 QBs?

So you arent actually projections players stats you are just projectioning the points of QBs then you choose where you place each one?

Im a little confused :-°


I think it's more saying that you shouldn't let the name of the player influence where you put them on your cheat sheet. It should be purely by numbers....but i think this system is very flawed. Doesn't take into account any outside changes like supporting cast, changing teams, changes in coaching, etc....

That's why I only use this as a small part of my cheat sheet making process.


so is it saying to this or not?

in 2003 the top 3 RBs were Priest (371 Points) LT (343 Points) and Green (335 Points)

in 2004 the top 3 RBs were SA (300 Points) Tiki (296 Points) and LT (283 Points)

in 2005 the top 3 RBs were SA (361 Points) LJ (327 Points) and LT (315 Points)

so RB1 would be 371+300+361/3=344 Points
so RB2 would be 343+296+327/3= 322 Points
so RB3 would be 335+283+315/3=311 Points

So then I think the #1 RB this year will be LJ so I project him at 344 Points I think LT will be #2 RB so I project him at 322 and I think SA will be #3 RB so I project him at 311 points

Or is it this

LT in 2003 scored 343 Points 2004 scored 283 Points 2005 scored 315 Points

so LT would project at 343+283+315/3=314 Points

Is either of those right or are they both wrong? If its the latter how can people think this is effective?


What I do in march I make a draft list using Rb1, Rb2... Etc

Then when August comes around, when I am aware of injury's trades freeagents holdouts.... I put the names in. So I would have Lj: 344


Hope this clears things up!!!
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Postby WickedSmaat » Wed Mar 29, 2006 6:21 pm

I wouldn't read the whole thing mostly cause I understand the system but have never put it into use because I feel it's too much for me. I don't like to go by a certain number or so. I research stats and that's about it. Even one of my baseball teams this year, I have all NL players in a mixed league :-o not on purpose but it was how I felt was the best player instead of going by rankings. That's why I've never liked sending proxy lists to people if I'm away for a slow draft, cause my feelings change about who I should pick so often. It may be a good system for someone, but it's not for me.
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Postby GreatestShowOnEarth » Wed Mar 29, 2006 6:29 pm

WickedSmaat wrote:I wouldn't read the whole thing mostly cause I understand the system but have never put it into use because I feel it's too much for me. I don't like to go by a certain number or so. I research stats and that's about it. Even one of my baseball teams this year, I have all NL players in a mixed league :-o not on purpose but it was how I felt was the best player instead of going by rankings. That's why I've never liked sending proxy lists to people if I'm away for a slow draft, cause my feelings change about who I should pick so often. It may be a good system for someone, but it's not for me.


You mean "Stat boy" really isnt a stat boy??? :-b

im sooo clever.
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Postby Azrael » Wed Mar 29, 2006 8:52 pm

I don't really worry about any of that E=MC2 stuff. My drafts and rankings are based on:

1. What I perceive each player should do THIS year based on the offense they are in, what the offense focuses on, what that player's role is in the offense, and, of course all things being equal, what have they done before.

2. Where I think other managers have the same players ranked (e.g., if I think I can get the guy I want to be my No. 2 WR in the 6th or 7th round (like I did with Fitz last year) then I can draft other positions heavier or earlier)

And number 2 is based on doing mocks and reading other informed players' opinions here.

VBD was telling people to take Culpepper and Manning in the first round, which goes completely against one of my cardinal rules, i.e., Never draft a QB early.

That's about all I do to prepare myself.
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