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My strategy for this year!!!

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Postby dirty weasel » Sun May 14, 2006 4:19 am

This may clear things up about VBD, or it may really confuse you. Remember, every VBD chart is based on your league size and starting requirements. It's main value is trying to determine what positions are more important than others, in relation to each other.

In one league I play we start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 1D. Standard yardage with .5 PPR. It is an 8-team league. Going back to 2004, I plugged in the numbers and came up with this top 50 list:

QB1
QB2
RB1
RB2
RB3
RB4
WR1
RB5
RB6
TE1
TE2
WR2
D1
WR3
D2
RB7
WR4
WR5
WR6
WR7
QB3
WR8
WR9
TE3
D3
WR10
RB8
RB9
K1
D4
WR11
WR12
RB10
WR13
WR14
WR15
QB4
WR16
QB5
RB11
WR17
K2
D5
K3
D6
RB12
QB6
WR18
WR19
D7
WR20

And in 2005, this is what the top 50 turned out like:

RB1
RB2
RB3
RB4
WR1
RB5
TE1
WR2
WR3
RB6
QB1
WR4
RB7
WR5
WR6
WR7
WR8
RB8
WR9
D1
D2
TE2
QB2
TE3
QB3
K1
WR10
TE4
K2
RB9
WR11
WR12
TE5
WR13
RB10
TE6
QB4
TE7
WR14
WR15
RB11
D3
RB12
QB5
WR16
WR17
D4
WR18
WR19
RB13
D5

With the exception of Peyton and Culpepper having monster years in 2004, these rankings look quite similar. The trick to VBD is being able to anticipate other owners, and to snag that value position just before others do. In both '04 and '05 the top TE was in the top 10. Does this mean you take him with near the end of the first round? No way, even though he really is worth it. Since the top TE usually goes in the 3rd round, that's where he should be taken. What about taking a defense in the 2nd round? Heck no, you'd be laughed out of the room. But the value chart says so, therefore it must be correct, right? Well, mathematically, yes, it's correct. But knowing that you can wait an additional 5 rounds is the key. For arguement's sake, let's just say we knew that the top D in '06 was going to be Chicago, and they were going to finish at #13 on the VBD chart. Would you take them in the 2nd round then? Of course you wouldn't. And the thing is, I just promised you they are worth it. I love having my VBD chart sitting right next to me on draft day, but I don't follow it to a T. I just cross off each pick, and the ones left over will become perfectly clear. If I think I can wait a round on the next position on the chart, I skip that one.
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Postby Infidel » Sun May 14, 2006 11:56 pm

All the statistical analysis is great and I would love to see your results. But the bottom line is that there are so many variables in FF that historical analyisis becomes a minor factor. Coaching changes, personnel changes, developing players, players on the decline, injury history, etc, etc. that FF drafting becomes more an art than a science. Agreed that the science will get you to .500, but it's the art that gets you SB's.

I am an economist and a mathamatician. My only artistic accomplishment is that I can write my name in the snow when I unrinate. OK, it's easy in cursive but I can do it in block letters. And that's what drafting in FF in all about. Seeing potential that others don't. That's not stats, that is analyzing changes that are happening with teams and moving players up or down draft boards.

In any event, I must give you props for your analysis, effort and resolve. I would like to see your results. I would also suggest that you do it in Excel with inputs for scoring system and if it works, you may have a product that you could sell. Maybe for a bigger payday than your SB.
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Postby PSU All Day » Mon May 15, 2006 9:07 am

"With the exception of Peyton and Culpepper having monster years in 2004, these rankings look quite similar. The trick to VBD is being able to anticipate other owners, and to snag that value position just before others do. In both '04 and '05 the top TE was in the top 10. Does this mean you take him with near the end of the first round? No way, even though he really is worth it. Since the top TE usually goes in the 3rd round, that's where he should be taken. What about taking a defense in the 2nd round? Heck no, you'd be laughed out of the room. But the value chart says so, therefore it must be correct, right? Well, mathematically, yes, it's correct. But knowing that you can wait an additional 5 rounds is the key. For arguement's sake, let's just say we knew that the top D in '06 was going to be Chicago, and they were going to finish at #13 on the VBD chart. Would you take them in the 2nd round then? Of course you wouldn't. And the thing is, I just promised you they are worth it. I love having my VBD chart sitting right next to me on draft day, but I don't follow it to a T. I just cross off each pick, and the ones left over will become perfectly clear. If I think I can wait a round on the next position on the chart, I skip that one."

The only problem with this system is that the value of a player is not how he performed vs. the top 100 players overall, but how he performed vs. the other players at his position.

So if you look at your list for year 2 you will see that the #1 TE is in the top 10 but the #7 TE is also in the top 50. Now if you look at the QB's you will see that QB1 is in the top 20 but QB#6 is not even on your list.

This is the heart of VBD. The difference in points from QB1 to QB 7 is more than the difference in points of TE1 to TE7. Thus, QB is more valuable to you in this scoring system.

As an example:

if TE#1 scored 100 points and TE #7 scored 90 points
and QB1 scored 50 points and QB#7 scored 1 point which position is more valuable?

The answer is QB. Because the difference in the points is where you find the value.

In your scoring system RB's are more important than TE's as well since the difference in scoring from RB1 to RB 13 is more than TE1 to TE 7.
"There are Lies, Big Lies, and then Statistics"

"Value Based Drafting is your friend!"
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Postby boojumsnark25 » Mon May 15, 2006 9:18 am

screw that VB stuff. I go with who I think is the best player available, and I'm happy with my drafts thus far.
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Postby umma10 » Mon May 15, 2006 11:13 am

In CBS sportsline they have a sheet with all the players FF points and who scored the highest last year overall or you can break it down to position....Isn't that a VBD program that they use?
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Postby nebula » Mon May 15, 2006 11:37 am

I usually make my own values based on opinion and general like and feel, then add a column with ant sport’s avg draft position (max, min, stdev) to see where they generally go.
Then on the fly see who is drafting next( before my next pick) and guess who they like, and which players may make it back to me.

Also, I use CBSsportsline, which has weekly scoring for last yr. I like to look at that too. But you have to copy it before the new season starts.
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That is good info. BUTT

Postby skinsrule » Mon May 15, 2006 12:08 pm

Ok. Nice information regarding how fantasy points are laid out out from year to year depending on league rules.soooooooooo

how about some advice. I am in a 12redraft league. You must start 1 QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 team Def, and a 1 Flex(RB/WR). WE draft 18 rounds and I usually draft a lot of RB's and on top tier WR early and wait on the rest. I won last year because of Larry Johnson(4th round) TO (3rd round), Bears (last round) that combined with depth like Westy and mike anderson allowed me to win.
Points are 6 point any TD and 1 point every 10 yards rush or receiving and one point per reception EXCEPT for RB's.

How should I tentatively plan out my drafting strategy this year?
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Postby Dan Lambskin » Mon May 15, 2006 12:52 pm

Azrael wrote:I don't really worry about any of that E=MC2 stuff. My drafts and rankings are based on:

1. What I perceive each player should do THIS year based on the offense they are in, what the offense focuses on, what that player's role is in the offense, and, of course all things being equal, what have they done before.

2. Where I think other managers have the same players ranked (e.g., if I think I can get the guy I want to be my No. 2 WR in the 6th or 7th round (like I did with Fitz last year) then I can draft other positions heavier or earlier)

And number 2 is based on doing mocks and reading other informed players' opinions here.

VBD was telling people to take Culpepper and Manning in the first round, which goes completely against one of my cardinal rules, i.e., Never draft a QB early.

That's about all I do to prepare myself.


that's about how i feel. i dont see any reason to go all statty, becasue IMO FF is about 50% luck anyway. you can have an absolute stud team on paper have a few average to bad weeks and get rolled up by a team of scrubs that all post season highs. likey? not extremely, but it happens, so instead of getting super geeky i just draft the guys i think put me in the best position to win
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I agree

Postby skinsrule » Mon May 15, 2006 1:59 pm

I agree with you not the stats just want to see what others suggest.
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Postby onnestabe » Mon May 15, 2006 2:55 pm

Dan Lambskin wrote:
Azrael wrote:I don't really worry about any of that E=MC2 stuff. My drafts and rankings are based on:

1. What I perceive each player should do THIS year based on the offense they are in, what the offense focuses on, what that player's role is in the offense, and, of course all things being equal, what have they done before.

2. Where I think other managers have the same players ranked (e.g., if I think I can get the guy I want to be my No. 2 WR in the 6th or 7th round (like I did with Fitz last year) then I can draft other positions heavier or earlier)

And number 2 is based on doing mocks and reading other informed players' opinions here.

VBD was telling people to take Culpepper and Manning in the first round, which goes completely against one of my cardinal rules, i.e., Never draft a QB early.

That's about all I do to prepare myself.


that's about how i feel. i dont see any reason to go all statty, becasue IMO FF is about 50% luck anyway. you can have an absolute stud team on paper have a few average to bad weeks and get rolled up by a team of scrubs that all post season highs. likey? not extremely, but it happens, so instead of getting super geeky i just draft the guys i think put me in the best position to win


This is what I do as well...The only list I use is a mock (not necessarily ADP) to make sure I don't forget names and to give myself an idea of where guys will go. I just pick guys that I think have the best chance to post good fantasy scores and target those guys.

I have found that detailed stat-oriented cheatsheets tend to make me pick players that represent good value, not necessarily good fantasy players. If I like a player, I don't mind taking them half a round before they "should" go, even though it is technically a reach. There's nothing I hate more than predicting a good performance for a player, and watching him do it on someone else's team.
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