Maybe I should just shut up and keep drafting him in the later rounds, but I just don't get it. A list of 17 "experts" at FBG has him being the 16th best QB, even in a redraft league. The highest any expert has him is #10. He's being selected as the 13th-14th QB in Antsports mock drafts. Again, he's listed at #14 on the ATC website. The Huddle also has him at #14.
Arizona passed for 317 more yards than any other team last year, and I assume that most people expect them to rack up the passing yards again, right? They didn't lose any WR's, they gained a nice young pass-catching TE, and a great pass-catching RB. Sure, their ground game will improve, but Edge catches alot too, so it won't eat into the ARI passing stats.
Will Kurt Warner get yanked in favor of a rookie who has yet to throw an NFL pass? Highly doubtful. The only way Leinart will play in 2006 is if Kurt Warner gets injured. Sure, Matt may get the nod in 2007, but I am talking redraft league here, so only 2006 matters.
Now let's talk about Warner getting sacked in 2006. I mean, after all, this is pretty much the only way a QB gets injured. Last year, the Cards gave up 45 sacks. There were 6 other teams that gave up more, and 2 others that had the same. But, ARI passed an average of 42 times per game. If you look at sacks per pass attempts, they gave up a sack every 1.07 pass attempt. That figure was better than 18 other teams in '06. Now let's factor in the Edge. Did he keep Peyton off his back in Indy? He sure helped, as evidenced by Indy leading the league in '06 with .62 sacks per pass attempts. Let's say Edge can only pick up half those sackers from last year. This would give ARI around .84 sacks per pass attempts, and figure up to 34 sacks in 2006. Even being the most pass-happy team in the league, 34 sacks puts them in the middle of the pack.
What I don't get is this - if Fitz and Boldin are both top 10 WR's, Edge is a top 10 pass-catching back, Pope is an upgrade at TE, and they still have Bryant Johnson as their WR3, how can Warner not crack the top 10 QB list? Sure, I understand he is any injury risk, but I can safely say that IF Warner plays an entire season, he will finish no lower than 3rd. I doubt any would argue this. People are drafting Carson Palmer in the top 10 of redraft leagues, and it's pretty much a crapshoot if he will even start the season. Is Warner healthy now? Yes, he is. Why not draft him as if he'll stay healthy all year, but make sure you draft a capable backup? Perhaps even Leinart way late in redraft leagues. He'll be available. In many redraft leagues he isn't even getting drafted.
Yeah, it's just the expectation of injury because their line is so bad. He does have a chance to put up some great numbers if the offense becomes more balanced. It's an intriguing risk that I would be willing to take in the later rounds. You can normally find some other random QB that has a huge year on the wire, so why not go for it.
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I actually like Warner in redrafts. The only things I would say are: With Edge, they will pass less just because more rushing attempts will take away from the insane passing attempt numbers from last year; Warner is injury prone and I expect him to miss 2 to 4 games this season because of it (I factor this potential loss of stats into my drafting); Warner doesn't get into the endzone enough (even when they were passing everydown in the redzone) and now they have a good RB who might take redzone priority. For these reasons, I have Warner in a grouping of QBs ranked about 10th for redrafts. I like his upside, his yardage, and the weapons around him, but I'm still a little weary about moving him up into the top 6 or 7. I do agree though that he is a great late round value pick-up and that he's a lot better than most of the mid-round QBs going before him in redrafts...
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For those that factor injury and expected missed games into their stat projections, what number did you rank Priest Holmes last year? If you said you thought he'd miss half a season, like he did in 2004, that meant you woulda ranked him around 30th. Come on now. I can bet my life that he went no later than the 2nd round in every single fantasy draft in the entire world. Even with the injury risk he was still listed as a top 5 RB. So why the double standard with Kurt?
Besides the obvious injury that everyone's pointed out, don't forget Dennis Greene has been bi-polar when it comes to his QBs in the Zona. Warner will get the start at the beginning of the season, but at some point (if he doesnt' get hurt) Warner will be yanked and Leinart will be put in there for about 3 games before Warner is put back in.
there shouldn't be. If he starts, he's a top 10 QB, and the backup that you draft is going to score less, but it's not like you lose out completely. PPG outweighs total points sometimes. That might be true for Kurt. He's going to toss some picks though. Plus he didn't toss that many TDs last year. The yardage was solid, but TDs weren't spectacular. I think 3500/21/17 seems reasonable assuming no injury.
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